Grantee Research Project Results
Predicting Relative Risk of Invasion by Saltcedar and Mud Snails in River Networks Under Different Scenarios of Climate Change and Dam Operations in the Western United States
EPA Grant Number: R833833Title: Predicting Relative Risk of Invasion by Saltcedar and Mud Snails in River Networks Under Different Scenarios of Climate Change and Dam Operations in the Western United States
Investigators: Poff, N. LeRoy , Raff, David A. , Shafroth, Patrick B. , Merritt, David M. , Bledsoe, Brian P. , Auble, Gregor T. , Purkey, David , Lytle, David , Dean, Denis , Friedman, Jonathan
Current Investigators: Poff, N. LeRoy , Bledsoe, Brian P. , Purkey, David , Friedman, Jonathan , Auble, Gregor T. , Shafroth, Patrick B. , Merritt, David M. , Raff, David A. , Lytle, David
Institution: Colorado State University , Stockholm Environment Institute , U.S. Bureau of Reclamation , United States Geological Survey , Oregon State University , U.S. Forest Service
Current Institution: Colorado State University , Oregon State University , U.S. Forest Service , U.S. Bureau of Reclamation , United States Geological Survey , Stockholm Environment Institute
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: July 1, 2008 through June 30, 2012 (Extended to June 30, 2013)
Project Amount: $599,748
RFA: Ecological Impacts from the Interactions of Climate Change, Land Use Change and Invasive Species: A Joint Research Solicitation - EPA, USDA (2007) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Climate Change , Aquatic Ecosystems
Objective:
Predicting the spread and establishment of invasive species in river ecosystems under climate change requires developing models that mechanistically link species population success to climate-sensitive environmental drivers. The goal of this project is to build a general and mechanistic framework with which to predict the future potential distribution of two invasive species expected to expand their ranges under a warming climate in streams and rivers of the western US. We hypothesize that local site invasibility will be regulated by climate-sensitive thresholds of hydrogeomorphic disturbance, which will vary throughout river networks in response to reach-scale channel geomorphology, future precipitation regimes, and operation of dams, which modify natural flow regimes.
Approach:
In a geographic region predicted to support saltcedar in the near future, we will downscale projected scenarios of temperature and precipitation as inputs to the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model framework, allow us to generate streamflow regimes at ca. 50 km2 subbasins based on precipitation and water management operations (including dams). We will use an artificial neural network (ANN) model to spatially distribute the WEAP hydrologic predictions throughout river networks at the reach scale (100s of meters). These reach-scale flow regime predictions, in conjunction with GIS-derived measures of channel and valley bottom geomorphology, will allow us to apply our biological model to assess the most likely locations in river networks for successful saltcedar and mudsnail invasion, given the flow-mediated disturbance regimes of any of several future climate scenarios. Further, using the coupled WEAP-ANN model, we will explore how a range of water management operations might influence the likelihood of invasive establishment in these climate contexts. Finally, we will use innovative stochastic population models to evaluate the probability of long-term success of the invasive species across a range of habitat vulnerability.
Expected Results:
This synthetic, multi-scale approach will generate a sequence of spatially explicit maps that will provide science guidance to support strategic decision-making regarding the spatially-distributed risk of, and possible adaptation to, the spread of invasive species at local to regional scales in the western US. The model will be general enough that it can be applied to other riverine species and resources, including non-invasive species.
Publications and Presentations:
Publications have been submitted on this project: View all 25 publications for this projectJournal Articles:
Journal Articles have been submitted on this project: View all 5 journal articles for this projectSupplemental Keywords:
Niche modeling, hydrologic disturbance, flow regime, river management, river networks,, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Aquatic Ecosystems & Estuarine Research, Environmental Chemistry, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Aquatic Ecosystem, Environmental Monitoring, Ecological Risk Assessment, Atmosphere, climatic influence, climate models, ecosystem indicators, aquatic ecosystems, coastal ecosystems, global climate models, invasive species, ecosystem stress, land and water resources, Global Climate Change, climate variabilityRelevant Websites:
Predicting Risk Invasion by Salt Cedar and Mud Snails (PDF) (1 pp, 16 K)
Progress and Final Reports:
The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.