Grantee Research Project Results
1999 Progress Report: Community Values and the Long-term Ecological Integrity of Rapidly Urbanizing Watersheds
EPA Grant Number: R825758Title: Community Values and the Long-term Ecological Integrity of Rapidly Urbanizing Watersheds
Investigators: Beck, Michael B. , Steinemann, Anne C. , Patten, Bernard C. , Rasmussen, Todd C. , Norton, Bryan G. , Porter, Karen G.
Current Investigators: Beck, Michael B. , Steinemann, Anne C. , Patten, Bernard C. , Rasmussen, Todd C. , Norton, Bryan G.
Institution: University of Georgia , Georgia Institute of Technology
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: June 1, 1998 through May 31, 2001 (Extended to February 28, 2004)
Project Period Covered by this Report: June 1, 1999 through May 31, 2000
Project Amount: $849,999
RFA: Water and Watersheds Research (1997) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Water , Watersheds
Objective:
The project seeks to integrate ecological, hydrological, and social/policy sciences in a study of a rapidly urbanizing watershed (Lake Lanier, Georgia), where preservation of long-term ecological integrity is perceived to be at stake. More specifically, our goals are to: (1) develop a concept of environmental decisionmaking in which science-based models are responsive to identified community values, as they evolve in both the short and long term; (2) develop and apply a procedure for identifying those scientific unknowns crucial to the "reachability" of the community's desired/feared environmental futures; and (3) improve understanding of basic aspects of lake ecosystem behavior, with special reference to the roles of the microbial loop in the foodweb, sediment-nutrient interactions, and geochemistry. Research towards the first of these goals is expected to culminate in a more general framework, to which we shall refer as "adaptive community learning," to be facilitated over time with continual mutual feedback between the formation of stakeholder concerns and exploration of their plausibility in terms of the science-based model.
Progress Summary:
In this, the second year of the project, progress towards Objective 2 above has been emphasized. Under Objective 1, our theoretical development of the concept of adaptive community learning has shifted towards ideas now emerging within the wider framework of Integrated Assessment (hitherto associated primarily with global- and continental-scale problems, such as climate change and acid rain). In particular, we have begun to review procedures for evaluating the quality of the models at the core of our project under the distinction between conventional, curiosity-driven science and the more recent form of mission-oriented science. This has opened up a novel dimension in which to judge the worth (quality or validity) of a modeling exercise, beyond the notions of history-matching and reliable performance of a predictive task, towards its value as a communications device. If a model enables a shared understanding among stakeholders of the underlying science to be achieved, thus allowing debate to focus properly on tradeoffs among predicted policy outcomes, that model has proved its worth. Under Objective 2, preparation, distribution, and assessment of a survey of stakeholder concerns have been a major undertaking. Preliminary findings are that "bacteria" (understood here as "pathogens"), water "unsafe for swimming," and "brown water" (i.e., sediment from the surrounding watershed) are the priorities for concern, that these concerns deepen in the longer term, and that federal, state, and local agencies are considered by this particular group of stakeholders—members of a home-owners association—to have been ineffective in mobilizing actions to preserve the integrity of Lake Lanier. The survey document also has been distributed to a second, much smaller sample of stakeholders (policy makers), in order to explore whether hopes and fears for the future differ among different kinds of stakeholders, namely, among the lay public, policy makers, and professional scientists. Receipt of the initial, primary set of survey responses has enabled work to be started on extracting quantitative behavior definitions, against which our foodweb model is to be pitted for the analysis of reachable futures. In particular, this has involved applying some of the thinking from Cultural Theory in order to identify differing mental models among stakeholders regarding what might happen to Lanier's ecosystem in the future. We have, in addition, proved the concept of our computational analysis of reachable futures, and expanded the preliminary 9-state foodweb model to a 13-state model incorporating the microbial loop hypothesis and a rudimentary account of thermal stratification. Under Objective 3, development began on two further modeling frameworks: a full ecosystem model, which is intended to meet the goal of promoting a shared understanding of the science underpinning Lanier's behavior and to examine how environ network analysis can be used to address problems in developing indicators of ecosystem health; and a model drawn from a background of biogeochemistry, which has been used to interpret results on nutrient cycling and photosynthetic-respiratory activity in an artificially manipulated pond. This latter framework is being used as a basis for designing a field program for studying the dynamics of the vertical profiles of dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration and pH in Lanier, with a view to forming policies of management around easily measurable "master variables."
Future Activities:
Certain actions must now be taken to maintain the momentum of the project in its dialogue with the stakeholders, prominent amongst whom are members of the Lake Lanier Association (LLA). Specifically, in the coming year, we plan to report back to the LLA on the results of the survey, both in terms of a presentation and an article for the Association's Newsletter, and to channel development of the ecosystem model, in particular, towards achieving its status as an educational device. Prototype "internal" testing of the device is to be conducted in the format of a workshop scheduled for late spring, early summer. The survey, distributed to lay stakeholders and policy makers in 1999, will be distributed to a third group (professional scientists). We have also taken steps to form a "blue ribbon" panel, or focus group, that could be assembled in the setting of a brainstorming session (in the spring) to generate as great a variety of target futures for Lake Lanier as possible. As our work on the analysis of reachable futures focuses more tightly on the concerns of the stakeholders, these in particular, concerns about "bacteria," are the priority. No matter how speculative the subset of hypotheses regarding their interactions with the other elements of the foodweb, their behavior has to be incorporated into the model. Studies in 1999 on the manipulated aquaculture pond have also identified algal respiration as poorly expressed yet key to the characterization of DO, nutrient, and geochemical dynamics in such systems. This coming spring-through-fall "season" permits the project a unique opportunity to repeat the earlier pond experiment, but on this second occasion with more refined and specific questions. If there is to be a master variable for tracking success in managing Lanier, it has to be intimately and unambiguously related to the many other features expressing the state of the lake's ecological health and integrity—as much for scientific reasons as for reasons of our project being responsive to stakeholder concerns. We, therefore, plan to undertake theoretically oriented work during the year 2000 in order to explore the extent to which hypolimnetic DO concentration captures meaningfully the variations in the other state variables of all three model clusters (foodweb, ecosystem, biogeochemical).
Journal Articles on this Report : 1 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 97 publications | 24 publications in selected types | All 15 journal articles |
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Type | Citation | ||
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Norton BG, Steinemann AC. Environmental values and adaptive management. Environmental Values 2001;10(4):473-506. |
R825758 (1998) R825758 (1999) R825758 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
Supplemental Keywords:
indirect effects, regionalized sensitivity analysis., RFA, Scientific Discipline, Economic, Social, & Behavioral Science Research Program, Water, Water & Watershed, Hydrology, Geochemistry, Biochemistry, Ecology and Ecosystems, decision-making, Watersheds, Economics & Decision Making, biogeochemical study, water resources, ecosystem valuation, long term ecological integrity, urban watershed rehabilitation method, valuation of watersheds, community-based research, coefficient variations, availability of water resources, aquatic ecosystems, lake ecosysyems, Monte Carlo simulations, water quality, ecological indicators, ecology assessment models, public policy, microbial food webRelevant Websites:
http://hilbert.forestry.uga.edu/beck/ Exit
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.