Grantee Research Project Results
2007 Progress Report: Methodology for Assessing the Effects of Technological and Economic Changes on the Location, Timing and Ambient Air Quality Impacts of Power Sector Emissions
EPA Grant Number: R831836Title: Methodology for Assessing the Effects of Technological and Economic Changes on the Location, Timing and Ambient Air Quality Impacts of Power Sector Emissions
Investigators: Ellis, Joseph H. , Burtraw, Dallas , Hobbs, Benjamin F. , Palmer, Karen
Institution: The Johns Hopkins University , Resources for the Future
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: February 1, 2005 through January 30, 2008 (Extended to January 30, 2009)
Project Period Covered by this Report: February 1, 2007 through January 30, 2008
Project Amount: $648,733
RFA: Regional Development, Population Trend, and Technology Change Impacts on Future Air Pollution Emissions (2004) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Climate Change , Air
Objective:
The amounts, locations and timing of power sector emissions are sensitive to economic and technological assumptions. In order to more confidently estimate future temporal and spatial scenarios of emissions, a theoretically defensible, transparent and practical methodology is potentially helpful. A methodology is being developed through the use of a sequence of models representing market-driven electricity supply and facility location. The primary activities under the energy facility-siting task have included improving the empirical siting analyses using an expanded dataset and performing capacity siting and NOx emissions analyses. The Haiku model, developed by Resources for the Future, is used to provide regional technology, demand, and emissions totals and disaggregates national totals to regions. We use it to systematically explore the sensitivity of both emissions and ambient air quality results to these uncertain drivers in order to assess which assumptions and model components matter most. Ambient air quality (tropospheric ozone and particulates) for an example set of scenarios are simulated using MM5/MCIP/SMOKE/CMAQ. This will demonstrate the practicality of integrating the source disaggregation methodology with the SMOKE emissions processing system and subsequently, the CMAQ transport and fate model itself.
Progress Summary:
Electricity Supply and Demand: In the second year of the project we initiated two further activities involving Haiku: (1) Characterization of emerging generation technologies. This work involves review of cost projections, learning parameters, and improvements in the characterization of resource availability for renewable technologies including geothermal, wind and biomass. We also updated forecasts for the cost and performance of nuclear power. We also began to develop an abstract representation of technologies that are not yet commercially available. In the model these technologies would compete with highly parameterized conventional technologies. This work involves the identification of the evolution in measures of performance such as emission rates and heat input. (2) Characterization of options for improved end-use efficiency with attention to time of day pricing. Drawing on published literature we are re-evaluating data on the technical and economic potential for end-use efficiency improvements.
- We are developing efficiency “supply curves” representing the opportunities for investments in each region of the country for each of three customer classes to reduce the amount of electricity needed to achieve a given level of energy services. The data for this effort are collected from the ACEEE and other sources and databases compiled at the state level.
- We are re-analyzing the existing literature by investigating the penetration of end-use technologies already in place and developing an inventory of new technologies that are expected to become available in the market place within the next few years. This data provides evidence of the likely future trend in efficiency investments that will be included in our long-run forecast.
Emission Downscaling Models: Siting and Dispatch: The first priority of this year’s activities was to interface the Haiku model outputs with a suite of downscaling models, which: (1) Generate emissions and energy scenarios that are consistent with Haiku regional totals; and (2) Are quick to execute and interface smoothly with each other and Haiku.
Air Quality Modeling: In last year's report we reported that we migrated to the current version (V2.2) of the SMOKE emissions processing system and as well made operational the NEI99 and NEI01 emission inventories. This year's activities have mostly consisted of debugging new emissions overlay files (PTHOUR format, developed by the Hobbs group) to work successfully in SMOKE. This positions us to soon begin full-scale scenario runs.
Future Activities:
Electricity Supply and Demand: Effect closure with the demand module and make it available for the simulations that will be part of the projec he selected demand functions in CES form are reduced form representations of demand that are calibrated to observed data. Underlying these functions there should be structural parameters that characterize the driving factors that determine demand such as persons per household, average square foot per household, miscellaneous appliance use, etc. This step of the project will construct and calibrate these structural relationships, which can then provide a vehicle for modeling the evolution of consumer demand in the long run as demographic features of the population evolve in a predictable manner.
Siting and Dispatch: During this coming year, the tasks will be to parameterize these models to account for siting constraints (such as water supply) and fuel price gradients within Haiku regions; and generation of additional downscaled emissions scenarios from Haiku runs for use in SMOKE.
Air Quality Modeling: Production runs using modified emissions fields generated via siting and dispatch modeling.
Journal Articles on this Report : 1 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 16 publications | 9 publications in selected types | All 7 journal articles |
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Type | Citation | ||
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Chen Y, Hobbs BF, Leyffer S, Munson TS. Leader-follower equilibria for electric power and NOx allowances markets. Computational Management Science 2006;3(4):307-330. |
R831836 (2005) R831836 (2007) R831836 (2008) R831836 (Final) R828731 (2003) R828731 (Final) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
power sector emissions, electrical energy production and demand, ambient air quality, climate change, regional facility location,, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Environmental Monitoring, Ecological Risk Assessment, Atmosphere, air quality modeling, atmospheric carbon dioxide, ecosystem models, electrical energy, climatic influence, emissions impact, green house gas concentrations, modeling, carbon dioxide, climate models, CO2 concentrations, demographics, electric power sector emissions, ambient air pollution, atmospheric models, Global Climate ChangeProgress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.