Grantee Research Project Results
Final Report: Development of a Regional-Scale Model for the Management of Multiple-Stressors in the Lake Erie Ecosystem
EPA Grant Number: R830881Title: Development of a Regional-Scale Model for the Management of Multiple-Stressors in the Lake Erie Ecosystem
Investigators: Koonce, Joseph F. , Hobbs, Benjamin F.
Institution: Case Western Reserve University , The Johns Hopkins University
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: June 1, 2003 through May 31, 2006 (Extended to May 31, 2007)
Project Amount: $748,400
RFA: Developing Regional-Scale Stressor-Response Models for Use in Environmental Decision-making (2002) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration , Aquatic Ecosystems , Climate Change
Objective:
The objective of this research is to develop a regional-scale, stressor-response model for the management of the Lake Erie ecosystem. Stressors addressed will include effects of land use changes and Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) targets for nutrients, habitat alteration, and natural flow regime modification at the scale of individual watersheds coupled with wholelake ecosystem effects of invasion of exotic species and fisheries exploitation.
Our research approach involves joining multi-level modeling with multi-objective risk decision tools. The research plan focuses on: 1) linking changes in watershed habitat and nutrient loading regimes proposed for the TMDL process to Lake Erie ecosystem health; 2) quantifying uncertainties in model predictions and determine the effects of uncertainties on management decisions; 3) evaluating interaction of stressors, particularly focusing on cross-scale additivity of stressors; 4) developing tools to evaluate ecological risk of land-use changes in watershed of the Lake Erie ecosystem; and 5) identifying and evaluate critical break-points in ecosystem integrity of the Lake Erie ecosystem and of its integrated management.
Approach:
Building on previous STAR funding (R825150) research on joining ecosystem modeling with multiobjective risk decision tools, the proposed research will engage research to: 1) link changes in watershed habitat and nutrient loading regimes proposed for the TMDL process to Lake Erie ecosystem health; 2) quantify uncertainties in model predictions and determine the effects of uncertainties on management decisions; 3) evaluate interaction of stressors, particularly focusing on cross-scale additivity of stressors; 4) develop tools to evaluate ecological risk of land-use changes in watershed of the Lake Erie ecosystem; and 5) identify and evaluate critical break-points in ecosystem integrity of the Lake Erie ecosystem and of its integrated management.
Summary/Accomplishments (Outputs/Outcomes):
Proposed work in the project involved five major tasks scheduled over a four-year period from June 1, 2003 to May 31, 2007. Work on these tasks and subtasks is a joint effort between Case Western Reserve University and Johns Hopkins University, with each research group having lead responsibility for various tasks. Highlights of research accomplishments included:
- Completion of field work and testing of models for establishing a habitat supply inventory for the entire Lake Erie watershed. Work has also involved developing both ESRI and open source implementations of GIS data analysis layers for use with public groups and managers.
- Applied established models (IHACRES and SWAT) to Lake Erie watersheds and developed a parameter estimation procedure that permitted a functional (hydraulic transport) representation of land cover effects on flow and nutrient loading.
- Assembled and tested a component-based DEVS modeling and simulation framework to perform cross-scale analysis of the interaction of stressors. In addition to Lake Erie applications of the framework, we incorporated a re-factored ATLAS model of the Florida Everglades into the framework and analyzed the effects of hydrology on wading birds. The framework include a software library, a modeling framework that incorporates a DEVS modeling and simulation platform, and a model repository for assembly and execution of hierarchical models.
- Development and testing of a decision analysis framework to explore the tradeoffs associated with dam removal from selected tributaries in the Lake Erie ecosystem.
- Results of the research were presented at twenty-three scientific meetings and/or invited seminars and in seven publications. As of the completion of project report, five manuscripts were being prepared for submission or pending review.
Conclusions:
This research will result in improved understanding of the importance of habitat and nutrient loading constraints to productivity and biodiversity of fish populations in the Great Lakes. Using fish communities as indicators of ecosystem health, the model provides an essential element in linking habitat changes to ecosystem effects. This research will also contribute to more general understanding of how fine-scale processes develop into larger-scale phenomena. Models developed in this study will integrate habitat supply information in an ecosystem context, relating habitat constraints to important fishery resources. These models will be valuable tools for assessing the potential impacts of habitat management on fish community indicators. The indicators, methodologies, and applications developed will also contribute to the goal of improving ecosystem management by developing tools that will help environmental managers in the Great Lakes to understand the probable consequences and causes of changes in landscape attributes and conditions, and by demonstrating how the understanding can be used in ecosystem management.
Expected Results:
This research will result in improved understanding of the importance of habitat and nutrient loading constraints to productivity and biodiversity of fish populations in the Great Lakes. Using fish communities as indicators of ecosystem health, the model provides an essential element in linking habitat changes to ecosystem effects. This research will also contribute to more general understanding of how fine-scale processes develop into larger-scale phenomena. Models developed in this study will integrate habitat supply information in an ecosystem context, relating habitat constraints to important fishery resources. These models will be valuable tools for assessing the potential impacts of habitat management on fish community indicators. The indicators, methodologies, and applications developed will also contribute to the goal of improving ecosystem management by developing tools that will help environmental managers in the Great Lakes to understand the probable consequences and causes of changes in landscape attributes and conditions, and by demonstrating how the understanding can be used in ecosystem management.
Journal Articles on this Report : 6 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
| Other project views: | All 31 publications | 6 publications in selected types | All 6 journal articles |
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Anderson RM, Hobbs BF, Koonce JF. Modeling effects of forest cover reduction on larval Walleye survival in Lake Erie Tributary spawning basins. Ecosystems 2006;9(5):725-739. |
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Corsair HJ, Ruch JB, Zheng PQ, Hobbs BF, Koonce JF. Multicriteria decision analysis of stream restoration: potential and examples. Group Decision and Negotiation 2009;18(4):387-417. |
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Hargreaves JJ, Hobbs BF. Optimal selection of priority development areas considering tradeoffs between hydrology and development configuration. Environmental Modeling and Assessment 2009;14(3):289-302. |
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Kim J, Hobbs BF, Koonce JF. Analysis of the sensitivity of decision analysis results to errors and simplifications in problem structure: application to Lake Erie ecosystem management. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, Part A: Systems and Humans. 2007;37(4):505-518. |
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Neeson TM, Koonce JF, Whiting PJ. Predicting sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) ammocoete habitat using geographic information systems. Journal of Great Lakes Research 2007;33(3):546-553. |
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Neeson TM, Gorman AM, Whiting PJ, Koonce JF. Factors affecting accuracy of stream channel slope estimates derived from geographical information systems. North American Journal of Fisheries Management 2008;28(3):722–732. |
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Supplemental Keywords:
Ecosystem modeling, regionalization, scaling, aquatic habitat, integrated assessment, ecological risk assessment, multi-objective decision making, Great Lakes, Lake Erie, watersheds, nutrient loading, climate change, TMDL,, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Ecology, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Monitoring/Modeling, Environmental Monitoring, Ecological Risk Assessment, Atmosphere, aquatic ecosystem, lake erie, ecosystem management model, effects of multiple stresses, land use model, watershed, environmental impact, habitat reconstruction, multiple stressors, TMDL, environmental stress, ecological models, fish models, land management, multi-stressor model, regional hydrologic modeling, stress responseProgress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.