Grantee Research Project Results
2003 Progress Report: Development of a Regional-Scale Model for the Management of Multiple-Stressors in the Lake Erie Ecosystem
EPA Grant Number: R830881Title: Development of a Regional-Scale Model for the Management of Multiple-Stressors in the Lake Erie Ecosystem
Investigators: Koonce, Joseph F. , Hobbs, Benjamin F.
Institution: Case Western Reserve University , The Johns Hopkins University
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: June 1, 2003 through May 31, 2006 (Extended to May 31, 2007)
Project Period Covered by this Report: June 1, 2003 through May 31, 2004
Project Amount: $748,400
RFA: Developing Regional-Scale Stressor-Response Models for Use in Environmental Decision-making (2002) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration , Aquatic Ecosystems , Climate Change
Objective:
The objective of this research project is to develop a regional-scale, stressor-response model for the management of the Lake Erie ecosystem. The stressors addressed will include effects of land use changes and total maximum daily load (TMDL) targets for nutrients, habitat alteration, and natural flow regime modification at the scale of individual watersheds, coupled with whole-lake ecosystem effects of invasion of exotic species and fisheries exploitation.
Our research approach involves joining multilevel modeling with multiobjective risk decision tools. The research plan focuses on: (1) linking changes in watershed habitat and nutrient loading regimes proposed for the TMDL process to Lake Erie ecosystem health; (2) quantifying uncertainties in model predictions and determining the effects of uncertainties on management decisions; (3) evaluating the interaction of stressors, focusing particularly on the cross-scale additivity of stressors; (4) developing tools to evaluate the ecological risk of land use changes in watersheds of the Lake Erie ecosystem; and (5) identifying and evaluating critical break points in ecosystem integrity of the Lake Erie ecosystem and of its integrated management.
Progress Summary:
The research in Year 1 of the project has focused on the development of geodatabases, a multimodeling framework to explore cross-scale interactions of linked watershed-lake processes, and adaptive decision analysis methods for the management decision domain of the Lake Erie ecosystem. To tackle the scientific uncertainty confounding the representation of cross-scale interactions, we have employed a landscape approach to identify classes of landscapes, which provide spatial data for models, a basis for designing an internal model structure, and a hierarchical structure for information exchange between models of varying extent and resolution. In our preliminary work, we have shown that land use/land cover changes at 30 m pixel resolution can be linked to tributary fish habitats utilized by Lake Erie fish species at the level of river valley segments (average area of 0.5 km2). Further, we are applying various hydrologic transport models at the scale of these catchments to predict TMDL contributions for phosphorus and sediment. Our multimodeling framework is based on a common discrete event simulator and includes extensible markup language (XML) interfaces to structure models of landscape objects and data to provide hierarchical communication among models. The XML interfaces also provide an extensive metamodeling framework for representing and understanding cross-scale interactions.
On the basis of this preliminary work, we have been able to secure cooperative agreements with various planning initiatives. In particular, the functional approach that we have developed for land-water interactions has led to collaboration with Ohio’s Balanced Growth Initiative, and we are sharing our databases and models to identify priority conservation areas in the Lake Erie Basin of Ohio. An unexpected outcome is the development of a metastructure for model and decision analysis tools that improves QA and QC for the project and model applications.
Future Activities:
We will expand on the work conducted in Year 1 of the project during next year’s planned activities. Milestones for next year include: (1) full implementation of a multimodeling framework and application to stressors; (2) completion of error analysis of linked multimodels; (3) analysis of error on management decisions; and (4) further analysis of ecological risk of nutrient inputs and land use changes in the Lake Erie watershed. Building on the landscape management policy issues in the Lake Erie Balanced Growth Initiative, we will expand our network of collaborations to include three related planning initiatives. First, we will work with a nongovernmental organization, EcoCity Cleveland, as it moves forward with work on a Joyce Foundation-funded watershed planning study to assist the Ohio Lake Erie Balanced Growth Initiative. Second, we have been invited to participate in the Site Planning Advisory Committee of the Chagrin River Watershed Partners for implementation of best management practices to control runoff. The Chagrin River Watershed Partners has a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency demonstration grant for low impact development, and we will be applying our geodatabases and models to help with the assessment of various strategies for implementation of best management practices at the level of individual land parcels. Finally, we will participate in a Great Lakes Commission-sponsored effort to develop indicators for implementation of Lake Erie watershed protection and restoration.
Journal Articles:
No journal articles submitted with this report: View all 31 publications for this projectSupplemental Keywords:
ecosystem modeling, regionalization, scaling, aquatic habitat, integrated assessment, ecological risk assessment, multiobjective decisionmaking, Great Lakes, Lake Erie, watersheds, nutrient loading, climate change,, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Ecology, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Monitoring/Modeling, Environmental Monitoring, Ecological Risk Assessment, Atmosphere, aquatic ecosystem, lake erie, ecosystem management model, effects of multiple stresses, land use model, watershed, environmental impact, habitat reconstruction, multiple stressors, TMDL, environmental stress, ecological models, fish models, land management, multi-stressor model, regional hydrologic modeling, stress responseRelevant Websites:
http://biocluster.cwru.edu/leem Exit
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.