Grantee Research Project Results
2006 Progress Report: Regional Development, Population Trend, and Technology Change Impacts on Future Air Pollution Emissions in the San Joaquin Valley
EPA Grant Number: R831842Title: Regional Development, Population Trend, and Technology Change Impacts on Future Air Pollution Emissions in the San Joaquin Valley
Investigators: Kleeman, Michael J. , Sullivan, Dana Coe , Niemeier, Deb , Lund, Jay , Handy, Susan
Current Investigators: Kleeman, Michael J. , Lund, Jay , Niemeier, Deb , Handy, Susan
Institution: University of California - Davis , Sonoma Technology, Inc.
Current Institution: University of California - Davis
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: October 1, 2004 through September 30, 2007 (Extended to September 30, 2010)
Project Period Covered by this Report: October 1, 2005 through September 30, 2006
Project Amount: $680,000
RFA: Regional Development, Population Trend, and Technology Change Impacts on Future Air Pollution Emissions (2004) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Climate Change , Air
Objective:
The objective of this project is to combine innovative land use forecasting models, water constraint models, travel demand models, emissions models, and a source-oriented air quality model into a modeling system with feedback loops to predict future emissions and associated air quality impacts. The modeling system will be used to assess the sensitivity of emissions inventories to future policy scenarios in the areas of land use policies, transportation investments, technological innovations, air quality regulations, and agricultural practices in the San Joaquin Valley (SJV) in the year 2030. The results of this research will improve our understanding of the long term air quality impacts of both incremental and radical changes in land use and infrastructure policies.
Progress Summary:
During the first year of the project four future policy scenarios were developed for the SJV in the year 2030. These policy scenario’s were constructed in consultation with experts from public agencies and private industry. Two scenarios bound extreme cases ranging from no policy controls on regional development to strict land use policy controls. The remaining two scenarios focus on interim policies that are likely to be implemented.
During the second year of the project the basecase “as-planned” emissions scenario for the San Joaquin Valley was translated into an emissions inventory for point, area, and mobile sources. The results suggest that wood smoke emissions were suppressed during the winter in the SJV due to the application of no-burn rules but increased population “sprawl” outside the current urban regions increased regional wood smoke emissions. Preliminary air quality modeling was performed to asses how air quality would change in response to these future emissions during winter conditions. As expected, primary wood smoke PM concentrations decreased in urban areas and increased in the surrounding outlying areas.
Future Activities:
The remaining emissions inventories will be generated for the SJV in the year 2030 under each of the four policy scenarios. Air quality models will be used to evaluate the effect of regional policy decisions on air quality in the SJV.
Journal Articles:
No journal articles submitted with this report: View all 9 publications for this projectSupplemental Keywords:
San Joaquin Valley, Land use, transportation, UPLAN, air quality, source-oriented external mixture model, mobile source emissions,, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Environmental Monitoring, Ecological Risk Assessment, Atmosphere, Urban and Regional Planning, atmospheric carbon dioxide, ecosystem models, human activities, VOCs, economic models, emissions impact, climate models, demographics, greenhouse gases, urban growth, ecosystem impacts, air quality, climate variability, Global Climate ChangeProgress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.
Project Research Results
- Final Report
- 2009 Progress Report
- 2008 Progress Report
- 2007 Progress Report
- 2005 Progress Report
- Original Abstract
4 journal articles for this project