Grantee Research Project Results
2005 Progress Report: Sensitivity and Uncertainty Assessment of Global Climate Change Impacts on Ozone and Particulate Matter: Examination of Direct and Indirect, Emission-Induced Effects
EPA Grant Number: R830960Title: Sensitivity and Uncertainty Assessment of Global Climate Change Impacts on Ozone and Particulate Matter: Examination of Direct and Indirect, Emission-Induced Effects
Investigators: Russell, Armistead G. , Wang, C. H. , Amar, Praveen
Current Investigators: Russell, Armistead G. , Amar, Praveen
Institution: Georgia Institute of Technology , Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management , Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Current Institution: Georgia Institute of Technology , Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: March 23, 2003 through March 22, 2006 (Extended to March 22, 2007)
Project Period Covered by this Report: March 23, 2005 through March 22, 2006
Project Amount: $899,494
RFA: Assessing the Consequences of Global Change for Air Quality: Sensitivity of U.S. Air Quality to Climate Change and Future Global Impacts (2002) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air , Air Quality and Air Toxics , Climate Change
Objective:
The objectives of this research project are to: (1) assess and compare the impacts of the direct (i.e., from the impact of climate change on meteorology) and indirect (those resulting from emissions changes) effects on regional air quality; (2) conduct a preliminary test of how mean temperature change in the future affects regional air quality; (3) provide quantification of the sensitivities in those impacts using direct sensitivity analysis; (4) account for the uncertainties in future climate change, evaluate the uncertainties in regional air quality, and evaluate its sensitivities caused by climate change uncertainties; (5) determine to the extent possible if climate change forcing has potentially significant and probable impacts on direction and magnitude of current emissions controls being considered in the United States for improving air quality (in this case ozone and fine particulate matter); and (6) develop further the capabilities of the air quality planning organization involved to conduct future studies of this type.
The first objective is the more traditional concern. We study how air quality potentially is impacted both by the direct forcing alone, as well as the direct and indirect forcings combined for two reasons. First, to isolate and better understand which processes are responsible primarily for changes found, and second, to recognize that the indirect effects are more uncertain at this time. The second, third, and fourth objectives (sensitivity and uncertainty assessment) should be included in any modeling study dealing with global climate change. The final two objectives, however, are driven by the most critical issue covered in this proposal: Does the potential of global climate change influence the choices policymakers need to make when dealing with improving regional air quality now and in the future? If global climate change is found to have some impact on air quality in the United States (which is very likely), but has little influence on the most effective directions for improving air quality (to which the answer is not obvious), the regulatory path is more clear and robust.
Progress Summary:
During this year, a major part of the project was completed. New emission inventories for historic (2000-2002) and future (2049-2051) years have been prepared, and the final simulations have been started. Because of the time-consuming simulation process, we need several months to get all the outputs. From the results obtained until now—2001 full year, 2050 full year: (1) 2050 emission inventory and 2050 meteorology, and (2) 2001 emission inventory and 2050 meteorology—we can see that the impact of climate change alone on air quality has a minor importance compared to the applied strategies for emissions control. The significant reductions predicted for sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium concentrations using the future emission inventory and meteorology will set organic carbon as the most important fine particulate matter component. The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has just finished the work for preparing uncertainty fields for temperature and humidity. This work already has been sent to the Georgia Institute of Technology (GaTech), and we have started working on these data (remapping uncertainty temperature and humidity values onto the nominal future climate conditions and meteorological downscaling to the regional scale using Mesoscale Model version 5). A meeting among all the groups involved in the study (i.e., GaTech, Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management [NESCAUM], and MIT) was held in Atlanta in October 2005 to discuss the final technical details. A significant number of presentations have been made at conferences during the past year, and three papers to be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals are in preparation. Results of our studies have been utilized by NESCAUM in assessing control strategies.
Future Activities:
During Year 4 of the project, we will: (1) get uncertainty in air quality using MIT data (uncertainty temperature and humidity fields); (2) perform post-processing work for 2000, 2002, 2049, and 2051 outputs (base case scenario) as well as for uncertainty results; and (3) publish the results, mainly in peer-reviewed journals, and continue to present results at peer-reviewed conferences and for policymakers.
Journal Articles:
No journal articles submitted with this report: View all 53 publications for this projectSupplemental Keywords:
air quality, climate change, meteorological downscaling, emissions projection, sensitivity, and uncertainty, particulate matter, aerosols, climate models, direct sensitivity analysis, atmosphere,, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, particulate matter, Air Quality, Air Pollutants, Chemistry, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Monitoring/Modeling, Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Engineering, Atmosphere, anthropogenic stress, aerosol formation, ambient aerosol, atmospheric particulate matter, atmospheric dispersion models, ecosystem models, environmental monitoring, environmental measurement, meteorology, climatic influence, emissions monitoring, global change, ozone, air quality models, climate, climate models, greenhouse gases, airborne aerosols, atmospheric aerosol particles, atmospheric transport, Integrated Global Systems Model, environmental stress, ecological models, climate model, greenhouse gas, aerosols, atmospheric models, Global Climate Change, atmospheric chemistry, ambient air pollutionRelevant Websites:
http://www.ce.gatech.edu/~trussell/lamda/ Exit
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.