Grantee Research Project Results
2003 Progress Report: Sensitivity and Uncertainty Assessment of Global Climate Change Impacts on Ozone and Particulate Matter: Examination of Direct and Indirect, Emission-Induced Effects
EPA Grant Number: R830960Title: Sensitivity and Uncertainty Assessment of Global Climate Change Impacts on Ozone and Particulate Matter: Examination of Direct and Indirect, Emission-Induced Effects
Investigators: Russell, Armistead G. , Wang, C. H. , Amar, Praveen
Current Investigators: Russell, Armistead G. , Amar, Praveen
Institution: Georgia Institute of Technology
Current Institution: Georgia Institute of Technology , Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: March 23, 2003 through March 22, 2006 (Extended to March 22, 2007)
Project Period Covered by this Report: March 23, 2003 through March 22, 2004
Project Amount: $899,494
RFA: Assessing the Consequences of Global Change for Air Quality: Sensitivity of U.S. Air Quality to Climate Change and Future Global Impacts (2002) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air , Air Quality and Air Toxics , Climate Change
Objective:
The objectives of this research project are to: (1) assess and compare the impacts of the direct (i.e., impacts of climate change on meteorology) and indirect (i.e., impacts resulting from emissions changes) effects on regional air quality; (2) provide preliminary quantification of the sensitivities and uncertainties in those impacts using direct sensitivity analysis; (3) determine, to the extent possible at this time, if climate change forcing has potentially significant and probable impacts on direction and magnitude of current emissions controls being considered in the United States for improving air quality (in this case ozone and fine particulate matter); and (4) further develop the capabilities of the air-quality planning organization involved to conduct future studies of this type.
The first objective is the more traditional concern. We study how air quality is potentially impacted by both the direct forcing alone as well as the direct and indirect forcing. These are combined to: (1) isolate and better understand which processes are primarily responsible for changes found; and (2) recognize that the indirect effects are more uncertain at this time. Although sensitivity and uncertainty assessment, the second objective, should be included in any modeling study, such an assessment is critical and compelling in dealing with global change. The final objective, however, is driven by the most critical issue covered in this proposal: Does the potential of global climate change influence the choices policymakers need to make when dealing with improving regional air quality now and in the future. If global change is found to have some impact on air quality in the United States (which is very likely), but has little influence on what the most effective directions for improving air quality are (to which the answer is not obvious), the regulatory path is more clear and robust.
Progress Summary:
Year 1 of the project dealt with the multiinstitutional project coordination, beginning with a meeting in Boston, MA, (becausetwo of the institutions are based there). A second meeting was held in Atlanta, GA, between the Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management staff member and the Georgia Institute of Technology group to transfer technologies and skills. This is a significant effort in this project because one of the objectives is to develop skills of the Regional Air Quality Planning Organization to conduct such studies in the future. Codes were transferred and the staff member now is able to conduct many of the modeling aspects that will be required in the future.
A second activity was the multiyear air-quality modeling using Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ). This was done for the base years (2001-2002). From that period, we have analyzed pollutant concentration sensitivities to temperature changes and the resulting emissions changes. This is to help develop a preliminary assessment of the uncertainties in the air-quality response to future emissions controls as well as uncertainties in our ability to estimate how climate changes will impact air quality. These calculations do not use the level of detail required to answer the questions fully.
Future Activities:
We will perform the meteorological modeling of 2050, with uncertainties and emissions projections to 2050, followed by CMAQ air quality modeling. It also is apparent that further work on the aerosol portion of CMAQ, the cloud dynamics in CMAQ, and CMAQ with Decoupled Direct Method (DDM) would be valuable.
Journal Articles:
No journal articles submitted with this report: View all 53 publications for this projectSupplemental Keywords:
models 3, direct sensitivity analysis, air quality policy, air, ecosystem protection/environmental exposure and risk, air pollutants, air pollution effects, air quality, atmosphere, atmospheric sciences, chemistry, environmental engineering, monitoring/modeling, climate change, particulate matter, global climate change, integrated global systems model, aerosol formation, aerosols, air quality models, airborne aerosols, ambient aerosol, ambient air pollution, anthropogenic stress, atmospheric aerosol particles, atmospheric chemistry, atmospheric dispersion models, atmospheric models, atmospheric particulate matter, atmospheric transport, climate, climate model, climate models, climate variability, climatic influence, ecological models, ecosystem models, emissions monitoring, environmental measurement, environmental stress, global change, greenhouse gas, greenhouse gases, meteorology., RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, particulate matter, Air Quality, Air Pollutants, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Chemistry, Monitoring/Modeling, Atmospheric Sciences, Atmosphere, Environmental Engineering, anthropogenic stress, aerosol formation, ambient aerosol, atmospheric particulate matter, atmospheric dispersion models, ecosystem models, environmental monitoring, environmental measurement, meteorology, climatic influence, emissions monitoring, global change, ozone, air quality models, climate, climate models, greenhouse gases, airborne aerosols, atmospheric aerosol particles, atmospheric transport, Integrated Global Systems Model, environmental stress, ecological models, climate model, greenhouse gas, aerosols, atmospheric models, Global Climate Change, atmospheric chemistry, ambient air pollutionProgress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.