Grantee Research Project Results
2004 Progress Report: Sensitivity and Uncertainty Assessment of Global Climate Change Impacts on Ozone and Particulate Matter: Examination of Direct and Indirect, Emission-Induced Effects
EPA Grant Number: R830960Title: Sensitivity and Uncertainty Assessment of Global Climate Change Impacts on Ozone and Particulate Matter: Examination of Direct and Indirect, Emission-Induced Effects
Investigators: Russell, Armistead G. , Wang, C. H. , Amar, Praveen
Current Investigators: Russell, Armistead G. , Amar, Praveen
Institution: Georgia Institute of Technology , Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management , Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Current Institution: Georgia Institute of Technology , Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: March 23, 2003 through March 22, 2006 (Extended to March 22, 2007)
Project Period Covered by this Report: March 23, 2004 through March 22, 2005
Project Amount: $899,494
RFA: Assessing the Consequences of Global Change for Air Quality: Sensitivity of U.S. Air Quality to Climate Change and Future Global Impacts (2002) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air , Air Quality and Air Toxics , Climate Change
Objective:
The objectives of this research project are to: (1) assess and compare the impacts of the direct (i.e., from the impact of climate change on meteorology) and indirect (those resulting from emissions changes) effects on regional air quality; (2) conduct preliminary tests of how mean temperature change in the future affects regional air quality; (3) provide quantification of the sensitivities in those impacts using direct sensitivity analysis; (4) account for the uncertainties in future climate change and evaluate the uncertainties in regional air quality and its sensitivities resulting from climate change uncertainties; (5) determine, to the extent possible at this time, if climate change forcing has potentially significant and probable impacts on direction and magnitude of current emissions controls being considered in the United States for improving air quality (in this case ozone and fine particulate matter); and (6) develop further the capabilities of the air quality planning organization involved to conduct future studies of this type.
The first objective is the more traditional concern. We study how air quality is potentially impacted both by the direct forcing separately, as well as the direct and indirect forcings combined. We are conducting this study for two reasons: (1) to isolate and better understand which processes are primarily responsible for changes found and (2) to recognize that the indirect effects are more uncertain at this time. Although sensitivity and uncertainty assessment (the second, third, and fourth objectives) should be included in any modeling study dealing with global climate change, such an assessment is the most critical and compelling. The final two objectives, however, are driven by the most critical issue covered in this proposal: Does the potential of global climate change influence the choices policy makers need to make when dealing with improving regional air quality now and in the future? If global climate change is found to have some impact on air quality in the United States (which is very likely), but has little influence on what are the most effective directions for improving air quality (to which the answer is not obvious), the regulatory path is more clear and robust.
Progress Summary:
Year 1
We dealt with the multi-institutional project coordination, beginning with a meeting in Boston, Massachusetts (because two of the institutions are based there). A second meeting was held in Atlanta, Georgia, between the Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management (NESCAUM) staff member and the Georgia Institute of Technology (GaTech) group to transfer technologies and skills. This is a significant effort for this research project because one of the objectives is to develop the skills of the Regional Air Quality Planning organization to conduct such studies in the future.
Year 2
We began with a numerical examination of the effects of mean temperature change on regional air quality during a short summer period using Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) and Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ). From that period, we analyzed pollutant concentration sensitivities to temperature changes and the resulting emissions changes. This is to help develop a preliminary assessment of the uncertainties in the air quality response of future emissions controls and uncertainties in our ability to estimate how climate changes will impact air quality. Note that this examination is not viewed as using the level of detail that is required to answer the questions fully. Next, we requested collaboration from a climate-modeling group of the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) (specifically, Dr. Lai-Yung Leung). With help from PNNL, a number of annual MM5 data sets, dynamically downscaled from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies model by PNNL staff, were transferred to GaTech for use as nominal (or base) meteorological input for driving SMOKE and CMAQ. The same data sets also have been distributed to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) for use as proxy meteorology for future climate. To meet the specification of PNNL’s MM5 grid configuration consistently, we have created all emissions-weight profiles required for spatial allocation of anthropogenic and biogenic emissions.
A meeting among all the groups involved in the study (i.e., GaTech, NESCAUM, and MIT) was held in Boston in March 2005 to discuss technical details. The meeting focussed on emissions inventory projection and how to incorporate meteorological uncertainties from the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) into MM5 modeling. NESCAUM has performed emissions inventory projection for future-year simulation (mid-century) and finished the first version, which is sufficient for use in setting up the entire modeling framework in the study. Part of the effort in emissions work focused on the selection and quality assurance of base and future inventories. The MIT group has developed a scheme to incorporate climate uncertainties suggested by IGSM into proxy MM5 data. In addition, the CMAQ model coupled with the Direct Decoupled Method (DDM) for sensitivity analysis of particulate matter (which also includes gaseous species) has been developed at GaTech and adopted for use in this study.
In addition to the investigators, the project personnel includes Kasemsan Manomaiphiboon (GaTech) who works as a postdoctoral fellow (Ph.D. graduate in Environmental Engineering Program) and is the key modeler of this project. Kasemasan was recently joined by Kuo-Jen Liao (second-year Ph.D. student in Environmental Engineering Program) and Efthimios Tagaris (new postdoctoral fellow with several years of experience in air quality research from Greece). At NESCAUM, Drs. Jung-Hun Woo and Shan He have joined the project as key emissions workers. At MIT, Cassandra Roth (undergraduate student in the Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change) is helping Dr. Chien Wang analyze and process climate uncertainty data obtained from IGSM.
Future Activities:
We will continue the various technical tasks begun during Year 2 of the project. NESCAUM will produce the next version of future emissions inventories, with emphasis on mobile emissions and vehicle activity forecast. The deadline set to finish this part is October 2005. At GaTech, a moderate number of simulations are now being carried out, which include SMOKE processing, regular CMAQ, and CMAQ-DDM for multiple episodes (summers of 2000-2002 and 2049-2051). These simulations can be viewed as the last step before running all planned longer episodes of all base and perturbed climate scenarios set in the study. Results from these summer time episodes will be presented in a number of conferences and workshops. We also developed some numerical codes to facilitate the post-processing of SMOKE and CMAQ outputs. We will continue working on developing a technique to downscale the processed uncertainty data obtained from IGSM into MM5 so that the regional-scale meteorology with a high temporal resolution can be generated for SMOKE and CMAQ. The MIT group is now waiting for recommendations from GaTech to adjust and then finalize their coupling scheme. In addition, GaTech investigators will continue to train and guide the new members who will assume more responsibility to carry out simulation work in the future.
Journal Articles:
No journal articles submitted with this report: View all 53 publications for this projectSupplemental Keywords:
air quality, climate change, meteorological downscaling, emissions projection, sensitivity, uncertainty, emission changes, emissions controls, global climate change, temperature changes, meteorology,, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, particulate matter, Air Quality, Air Pollutants, Chemistry, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Monitoring/Modeling, Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Engineering, Atmosphere, anthropogenic stress, aerosol formation, ambient aerosol, atmospheric particulate matter, atmospheric dispersion models, ecosystem models, environmental monitoring, environmental measurement, meteorology, climatic influence, emissions monitoring, global change, ozone, air quality models, climate, climate models, greenhouse gases, airborne aerosols, atmospheric aerosol particles, atmospheric transport, Integrated Global Systems Model, environmental stress, ecological models, climate model, greenhouse gas, aerosols, atmospheric models, Global Climate Change, atmospheric chemistry, ambient air pollutionRelevant Websites:
http://www.ce.gatech.edu/~trussell/lamda/ Exit
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.