Grantee Research Project Results
2004 Progress Report: Development of Risk Propagation Model for Estimating Ecological Responses of Streams to Anthropogenic Watershed Stresses and Stream Modifications
EPA Grant Number: R830885Title: Development of Risk Propagation Model for Estimating Ecological Responses of Streams to Anthropogenic Watershed Stresses and Stream Modifications
Investigators: Novotny, Vladimir , Bartosova, Alena , Manolakos, Elias , Hellweger, Ferdinand , O'Reilly, Neal , Kandiah, Ramanitharan , Ehlinger, Timothy
Current Investigators: Novotny, Vladimir , Bartosova, Alena , Manolakos, Elias , Ehlinger, Timothy
Institution: Northeastern University , Illinois State Water Survey , University of Wisconsin - Milwaukee , Marquette University
Current Institution: Northeastern University , Illinois State Water Survey , University of Wisconsin - Milwaukee
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: June 1, 2003 through May 31, 2006 (Extended to May 31, 2007)
Project Period Covered by this Report: June 1, 2004 through May 31, 2005
Project Amount: $747,760
RFA: Developing Regional-Scale Stressor-Response Models for Use in Environmental Decision-making (2002) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Aquatic Ecosystems , Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration
Objective:
The goal of this research project is to develop a regionalized watershed-scale model to determine aquatic ecosystem vulnerability to anthropogenic watershed changes, pollutant loads, and stream modifications (e.g., impoundments and riverine navigation). The model will assist watershed managers in their decisions on selecting methods to mitigate stream degradation and biological impairment, assessing potential watershed impacts, and identifying watershed restoration opportunities. The layered hierarchical model system, developed by artificial neural net (ANN) modeling and analysis, will be based on probabilistic risk propagation and linking the stresses with ecologic endpoints, from physical attributes of the watershed and water body and pollutant loadings at the lowest level to measures of biotic integrity, such as the Index of Biotic Integrity (IBI), at the highest level.
The main objectives and outcomes of the research are: (1) developing a model that would consider pollutant effects of impoundments for navigation and other purposes, channelization, watershed modification, and riparian corridor and land use changes as the key root stressors; (2) developing a layered, hierarchical progression of risks, from the basic root stressors to the biotic endpoints (fish and macroinvertebrate IBIs); (3) using the model to study the possibility of mitigating the stressors in a way that would have the most beneficial impact on the biotic endpoints; (4) developing a manual for watershed managers and other users; and (5) investigating adaptability and transferability of the model to a stressed New England stream.
Progress Summary:
The Phase II (2004-2005) tasks completed include the following:
- Significant effort was devoted to development of the database software shell. An Oracle-based shell originally was considered because U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) data are in Oracle format. Acquiring the Oracle NAWQA database from the USGS, however, was not possible. The database shell FoxDb, developed by the Illinois State Water Survey, was acquired, substantially expanded, and modified to form a new database STARED (Kandiah, et al., 2005).
- A watershed-loading, geographic information system (GIS)-based model was developed (Beach and Novotny, 2005).
- Neural net algorithms for modeling input/output (cause/effect) response of the ecological system were developed along with investigation of neural network-based schemes (Brooks and Novotny, 2005; Virani and Manolakos, 2005).
- Analysis and quantification of the risks expressed as Maximum Species Richness relationships for all stresses were completed (Brooks and Novotny, 2005).
- Development of risk propagation functions and links (this project was delayed because of Dr. Bartošová’s involvement with creation of STARED).
- Development of an ANN-based predictive model.
- Characterization of the riparian corridor structure and its fragmentation is in progress (delayed, see note below).
- Development and identification of a methodology to quantify fragmentation risk are in progress (delayed, see note below).
- River continuum issues, such as quantification of the Impact of Impoundments on IBIs and development of hydrologically and hydraulically based habitat index, are in progress.
After we failed to obtain the NAWQA Oracle-based database, we spent a considerable amount of time and effort developing a substitute, yet more than adequate, database shell and entering data for our research. We will request a 1-year extension of the project to complete the objectives.
Future Activities:
The planned or continuing tasks in Phase III (2005-2006) include: (1) continue development of risk propagation functions and links; (2) continue development of an ANN-based predictive model; (3) Continue characterization of the riparian corridor structure and its fragmentation; (4) continue development and identification of a methodology to quantify fragmentation risk; and (5) continue to address river continuum issues, such as quantification of the Impact of Impoundments on IBIs and the development of a hydrologically and hydraulically based habitat index.
In the concluding Phase IV (2006-2007) of the research, the project team will: (1) investigate a prototypical ecoinformatics, integrating watershed risk propagation model with decision support management; (2) finalize and test the model using the Charles River watershed; (3) develop a model manual and prepare and conduct a workshop for potential model users; and (4) prepare the final report for the project.
Journal Articles on this Report : 1 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 18 publications | 7 publications in selected types | All 2 journal articles |
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Type | Citation | ||
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Novotny V, Bartosova A, O'Reilly N, Ehlinger T. Unlocking the relationship of biotic integrity of impaired waters to anthropogenic stresses. Water Research 2005;39(1):184-198. |
R830885 (2003) R830885 (2004) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
watershed management, habitat integrity, biotic indices, stressor, ecological risks, stream degradation, pollution, watershed restoration,, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Water, ECOSYSTEMS, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Aquatic Ecosystems & Estuarine Research, Water & Watershed, Aquatic Ecosystem, Monitoring/Modeling, Regional/Scaling, Environmental Monitoring, Terrestrial Ecosystems, Ecological Risk Assessment, Ecology and Ecosystems, Watersheds, risk assessment, anthropogenic stress, ecosystem modeling, neural net modeling, ecology, ecosystem assessment, watershed, ecosystem monitoring, decision making, ecological variation, regional scale impacts, risk propagation model, aquatic ecosystems, environmental stress, water quality, ecological indicators, ecology assessment models, ecosystem stress, watershed assessment, ecological models, stress response, ecosystem response, water monitoringRelevant Websites:
http://www.coe.neu.edu/environment/star.htm Exit
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.