Grantee Research Project Results
2003 Progress Report: Development of Risk Propagation Model for Estimating Ecological Responses of Streams to Anthropogenic Watershed Stresses and Stream Modifications
EPA Grant Number: R830885Title: Development of Risk Propagation Model for Estimating Ecological Responses of Streams to Anthropogenic Watershed Stresses and Stream Modifications
Investigators: Novotny, Vladimir , Bartosova, Alena , Langseth, David , Manolakos, Elias , O'Reilly, Neal , Ehlinger, Timothy
Current Investigators: Novotny, Vladimir , Bartosova, Alena , Manolakos, Elias , Ehlinger, Timothy
Institution: Northeastern University , University of Wisconsin - Milwaukee , University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
Current Institution: Northeastern University , Illinois State Water Survey , University of Wisconsin - Milwaukee
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: June 1, 2003 through May 31, 2006 (Extended to May 31, 2007)
Project Period Covered by this Report: June 1, 2003 through May 31, 2004
Project Amount: $747,760
RFA: Developing Regional-Scale Stressor-Response Models for Use in Environmental Decision-making (2002) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Aquatic Ecosystems , Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration
Objective:
The goal of this research project is to develop a regionalized watershed-scale model to determine aquatic ecosystem vulnerability to anthropogenic watershed changes, pollutant loads, and stream modifications (such as impoundments and riverine navigation). The model will assist watershed managers in their decision regarding methods to mitigate stream degradation and biological impairment, assess potential watershed impacts, and identify watershed restoration opportunities. The layered hierarchical model system, developed by artificial neural net modeling and analysis, will be based on probabilistic risk propagation and linking the stresses with ecologic endpoints, from physical attributes of the watershed and water body and pollutant loadings at the lowest level to measures of biotic integrity, such as the Index of Biotic Integrity (IBI), at the highest level.
The specific objectives and outcome of the research project are to: (1) develop a model that would consider pollutant effects of impoundments for navigation and other purposes, channelization, watershed modification, and riparian corridor and land use changes as the key root stressors, primarily using data obtained from the Midwest streams; (2) develop a layered hierarchical progression of risks from the basic root stressors to the biotic endpoints (fish and macroinvertebrate IBIs); (3) use the model for studying the possibility of mitigating the stressors in a way that would have the most beneficial impact on the biotic endpoints; (4) develop a manual for watershed managers and other users; and (5) investigate the adaptability and transferability of the model to a stressed New England stream.
Progress Summary:
The following tasks have been completed in this first annual period:
• The interdisciplinary team from three universities has been assembled, and contracts have been issued.
• An extensive literature review on the relation of stresses to biotic integrity indices was prepared and published as a technical report.
• Work on the development of individual pollutant risk effects (maximum species richness function) was initiated.
• Fragmentation risk has been defined and formulated.
• Methodology for the project has been developed that includes all tasks, deadlines, and responsibilities. The pilot watersheds have been selected, and information is being collected.
• Significant effort was devoted to selection of the database software shell. Oracle originally was considered because National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) data are in Oracle format. Acquiring the Oracle NAWQA database from the U.S. Geological Survey, however, was not possible.
· The database shell developed by the team member from the Illinois Water Survey was selected and used by the entire team. The team has begun downloading the data for the selected watersheds from agencies and entering them into the database.
Future Activities:
The team now has entered into the main exploratory and development phase. In Phase II, we will:
• Complete the database (target date December 2004).
• Develop a watershed loading geographic information system-based model, based on watershed vulnerability indexing (target date spring 2005).
• Develop the neural net algorithms for modeling input/output (cause/effect) response of the ecological system and investigate neural network-based schemes flagging the formation of parameter patterns that affect the risk and act synergetically or antagonistically on the endpoints (target date fall 2005).
• Analyze and quantify the risks expressed as maximum species richness relationships for all stresses (target date spring 2005).
• Develop risk propagation functions and links (target date summer 2005).
• Develop the characterization of the riparian corridor structure and its fragmentation (target date spring 2005).
• Develop and identify a methodology to quantify fragmentation risk (target date fall 2004).
• Address river continuum issues (target date summer 2005) such as: (1) the effects of habitat and other stressors on the individual metrics of the biotic endpoints; and (2) the quantification of corridor fragmentation.
In concluding Phase III (2005-2006) of the research project, we will:
• Investigate a prototypical ecoinformatics integrating watershed risk propagation model with decision support management.
• Finalize and test the model, application to the Charles River.
• Develop a model manual and prepare a workshop for potential model users.
• Develop a final report.
Journal Articles on this Report : 2 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
| Other project views: | All 18 publications | 7 publications in selected types | All 2 journal articles |
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Novotny V. The next step - incorporating diffuse pollution abatement into watershed management. Water Science & Technology 2005;51(3-4):1-9. |
R830885 (2003) |
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Novotny V, Bartosova A, O'Reilly N, Ehlinger T. Unlocking the relationship of biotic integrity of impaired waters to anthropogenic stresses. Water Research 2005;39(1):184-198. |
R830885 (2003) R830885 (2004) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
ecology, ecological effects, vulnerability, stressor, ecosystem indicators, regionalization, aquatic habitat, integrated assessment, hydrology, limnology, modeling, Northeast, Great Lakes, Midwest., RFA, Scientific Discipline, Water, ECOSYSTEMS, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Aquatic Ecosystems & Estuarine Research, Water & Watershed, Aquatic Ecosystem, Monitoring/Modeling, Regional/Scaling, Environmental Monitoring, Terrestrial Ecosystems, Ecological Risk Assessment, Ecology and Ecosystems, Watersheds, risk assessment, anthropogenic stress, ecosystem modeling, neural net modeling, ecology, ecosystem assessment, watershed, ecosystem monitoring, decision making, ecological variation, regional scale impacts, risk propagation model, aquatic ecosystems, environmental stress, water quality, ecological indicators, ecology assessment models, ecosystem stress, watershed assessment, ecological models, stress response, ecosystem response, water monitoringRelevant Websites:
http://www.coe.neu.edu/environment Exit
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.