Grantee Research Project Results
2004 Progress Report: Development of Coupled Physical and Ecological Models for Stress-Response Simulations of the Apalachicola Bay Regional Ecosystem
EPA Grant Number: R830880Title: Development of Coupled Physical and Ecological Models for Stress-Response Simulations of the Apalachicola Bay Regional Ecosystem
Investigators: Harwell, Mark A. , Gentile, John H. , Johnson, Elijah , Bugna, Glynnis , Wang, Hongqing , Milla, Katherine , Dillon, Kevin , Hsieh, Ping , Huang, Wenrui
Current Investigators: Huang, Wenrui , Harwell, Mark A. , Gentile, John H. , Johnson, Elijah , Milla, Katherine , Hsieh, Ping
Institution: Florida Agricultural and Mechanical University
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: July 10, 2003 through June 9, 2007
Project Period Covered by this Report: July 10, 2004 through June 9, 2005
Project Amount: $749,691
RFA: Developing Regional-Scale Stressor-Response Models for Use in Environmental Decision-making (2002) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration , Aquatic Ecosystems , Climate Change
Objective:
The Apalachicola Bay ecosystem is a relatively pristine system on the Florida panhandle. The Bay has been designated an Outstanding Florida Water, a State Aquatic Preserve, and an International Biosphere Reserve. It includes the Apalachicola Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve (ANERR) and is adjacent to the St. Vincent National Wildlife Refuge. The Bay is the recipient of freshwater flows from the Apalachicola, Chattahoochee, and Flint River system (ACF), which drains over 60,000 km2 of Georgia, Alabama, and Florida. We previously developed a conceptual model for the regional system, identifying the natural and anthropogenic drivers and stressors, the various ecosystem types, and the valued ecosystem components (VECs) for each habitat. This conceptual model is the basis for the STAR project; thus we are developing relevant tools that can be used to assess effects of human activities on the region and provide scientific support to the environmental decision-making process. Of particular concern are the present and anticipated reductions below historical freshwater flows because of urban (particularly Atlanta) and agricultural usage. VECs include oysters, recreational fisheries, salt marshes, and the associated aesthetic, endangered, and recreational species of birds, fish, and invertebrates. Stressors include changes in salinity and turbidity, sea-level rise, nutrient inputs, tropical storms and hurricanes, and habitat alteration. The objective of the research project is to develop coupled physical and ecological models that can be used to evaluate the stress responses of the Bay’s ecological systems to these natural and anthropogenic stressors. A 3-D hydrodynamic model will be coupled with a water quality model to simulate the current, transport, salinity, sediment, and nutrient regimes of the Bay. This physical model will be coupled through a Geographical Information Systems framework to ecological models to simulate effects on the oyster population, salt marsh grasses, and landscape habitat mosaic distribution of the Bay’s ecosystems. The utility of the salt barrens distribution will be explored as an indicator of sea level rise and salinity regime changes. Hyperspectral remote sensing data, acquired under separate funding from the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), will provide information for model calibration and stress responses. Following the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency ecological risk assessment framework, this coupled model system will be developed and tested against potential scenarios of multiple stressors to demonstrate the utility of the models as a tool for ecological risk assessment and risk management of the regional ecosystem. The product will be available for direct support to the environmental decision-making process for the Apalachicola Bay and associated regional ecosystem.
Progress Summary:
Significant progress was made this past year and the following tasks were conducted:
- Refinement of the 3-D Apalachicola Bay hydrodynamical model based on the Princeton Ocean Model, which has been modified to the specific conditions of the Bay. We conducted additional calibrations with measured data on salinity in the Bay, as well as with data on tidal and hydrodynamic circulation patterns.
- Development and calibration of a salt marsh pore water salinity model based on a conceptual model developed previously with modifications to examine impacts of climate, tidal forcing, soil, vegetation, and topography on pore water salinity distribution along different elevations in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coastal region . We calibrated the model to the St. Marks National Wildlife Refuge and conducted simulations on the effects of climate, tide, soil property, and vegetative factors.
- Continued acquisition of spatially explicit databases for the regional ecosystem. Nutrient and salinity data for 2002-2004 were obtained from NOAA for monitoring stations in Apalachicola Bay, parameters include water temperature, specific conductivity, salinity, dissolved oxygen, depth, pH, turbidity, orthophosphate, ammonium, nitrate, and chlorophyll a; other data include biological features (e.g., oyster beds and vegetation), geographic and physical characteristics (e.g., roads and transportation, digital elevation models, soil types, land uses, stream gage data, precipitation), and chemical characteristics (e.g., water quality).
- Coupling of the hydrodynamical model with a water quality model. The planned coupling of the two models was complicated by model linkage issues, but an alternate modeling construct is underway.
- Calibration of MODBRNCH model. The planned calibration of the MODBRNCH model to the Apalachicola River system was complicated by limitations in the available model, so alternative river flow models are being explored.
- Collaborations with NOAA scientists. Collaborations on developing an oyster model for Apalachicola Bay has progressed very well, improving an existing model and acquiring extensive databases for oysters in the Bay. Another collaboration with a NOAA-funded project will aid development of risk assessment scenarios relevant to current decision-making issues concerning the ACF system and climate change effects.
Future Activities:
The next steps for the STAR project are to: (1) complete the calibration of the Apalachicola Bay hydrodynamic model and the linkage to the water quality module; (2) complete the implementation and calibration of a river flow regime model for the Apalachicola River; (3) continue the acquisition of data and implementation in the GIS database; (4) complete the development and calibration of the salt marsh ecological/hydrological model; (5) begin the development of an oyster productivity model for Apalachicola Bay; and (6) conduct a demonstration ecological risk assessment through development of the test scenarios related to climate change and the ACF water management.
Journal Articles on this Report : 1 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 8 publications | 4 publications in selected types | All 3 journal articles |
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Type | Citation | ||
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Huang W, Jones WK, Yang Q. Field experiment study of transient stratified flow in an estuary. Journal of Engineering Mechanics 2003;129(10):1220-1223. |
R830880 (2003) R830880 (2004) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
marine, estuary, watersheds, risk assessment, ecological effects, chemicals, toxics, particulates, ecosystem, indicators, scaling, terrestrial, aquatic, habitat, integrated assessment, decision making, environmental chemistry, ecology, hydrology, modeling, remote sensing, porewater salinity distribution, vegetation distribution, elevational gradient, tidal salt marshes, mean high tides, mass balance equation, evapotranspiration, diffusion, drainage, secretion, mean higher high water , hydraulic conductivity, climate, sea level change, simulations, Apalachicola Bay, St. Marks marshes, southeastern United States, Gulf Coast, Florida,, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, ECOSYSTEMS, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Ecosystem/Assessment/Indicators, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Monitoring/Modeling, Environmental Monitoring, Regional/Scaling, Ecological Monitoring, Atmosphere, Ecological Indicators, anthropogenic stresses, aquatic ecosystem, risk assessment, stess response, ecosystem assessment, stressors, ecological modeling, modeling, regional environmental health, ecological assessment, hydrology, regional scale impacts, ecosystem indicators, regional scale, Apalachicola Bay, assessment methods, GIS, water quality, ecological risk, environmental stress, bay ecosystem, hydrologic modeling, ecological models, ecosystem stress, three dimensional model, modeling ecological risk, stressor response model, regional hydrologic modelingRelevant Websites:
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.