Grantee Research Project Results
2003 Progress Report: Development of Coupled Physical and Ecological Models for Stress-Response Simulations of the Apalachicola Bay Regional Ecosystem
EPA Grant Number: R830880Title: Development of Coupled Physical and Ecological Models for Stress-Response Simulations of the Apalachicola Bay Regional Ecosystem
Investigators: Harwell, Mark A. , Gentile, John H. , Johnson, Elijah , Bugna, Glynnis , Wang, Hongqing , Milla, Katherine , Dillon, Kevin , Hsieh, Ping , Huang, Wenrui
Current Investigators: Huang, Wenrui , Harwell, Mark A. , Gentile, John H. , Johnson, Elijah , Milla, Katherine , Hsieh, Ping
Institution: Florida Agricultural and Mechanical University
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: July 10, 2003 through June 9, 2007
Project Period Covered by this Report: July 10, 2003 through June 9, 2004
Project Amount: $749,691
RFA: Developing Regional-Scale Stressor-Response Models for Use in Environmental Decision-making (2002) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration , Aquatic Ecosystems , Climate Change
Objective:
The Apalachicola Bay ecosystem is a relatively pristine system on the coast of the Florida panhandle. The bay and its surrounding waters have been recognized as a resource of state, federal, and international importance. The bay has been designated as an Outstanding Florida Water, a State Aquatic Preserve, and an International Biosphere Reserve. The bay includes the Apalachicola Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve and is adjacent to the St. Vincent National Wildlife Refuge. The bay is the recipient of freshwater flows from the Apalachicola, Chattahoochee, and Flint River system (ACF), which drains over 60,000 km2 of Georgia, Alabama, and Florida. Of particular concern are the present and anticipated reductions below the historical freshwater flows because of urban (particularly Atlanta) and agricultural usage. Valued ecosystem components include oysters, recreational fisheries, salt marshes, and the associated aesthetic, endangered, and recreational species of birds, fish, and invertebrates. Stressors identified as affecting the bay include changes in salinity, changes in sediment dynamics and turbidity, sea-level rise, nutrient inputs, tropical storms and hurricanes, and habitat alteration along the coast.
The objective of this research project is to develop a set of coupled physical and ecological models that can be used as assessment tools to evaluate the stress responses of the Apalachicola Bay’s ecological systems to all of these natural and anthropogenic stressors. An existing three-dimensional hydrodynamic model implemented at Florida Agricultural and Mechanical University will be coupled with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (WASP) 6 water quality model to simulate the current, transport, salinity, sediment, and nutrient regimes of the bay. This physical model also will be coupled through a geographic information system (GIS) framework to a series of ecological models to simulate ecological effects on the oyster population, the salt marsh grasses, and the landscape characteristics of the habitat mosaic distribution of the bay’s ecosystems. The utility of the salt barrens distribution also will be explored as an indicator of sea-level rise and salinity regime changes. Remote sensing will provide information for model calibration and stress responses. Following the EPA ecological risk assessment framework, this coupled model system will be developed and tested against potential scenarios of multiple stressors to demonstrate the utility of the models as a tool for ecological risk assessment and risk management of the regional ecosystem. The proposed product will be available for direct support to the environmental decision-making process for the Apalachicola Bay and associated regional ecosystems.
Progress Summary:
Prior to initiating this research project, the Environmental Cooperative Science Center (ECSC) has conducted an extensive conceptual model development activity for the Apalachicola Bay regional systems, identifying the natural and anthropogenic drivers and stressors affecting the systems, identifying the various ecosystem types in the region, and selecting a suite of valued ecosystem components for each habitat. This conceptual model was the basis for developing many of the specific elements of our proposed coupled physical-ecological model of the region, so that we have relevant developing tools that can be used to assess the effects of the specific human activities on the ecosystems of the region, and to provide scientific support to the environmental decision-making process.
During Year 1 of the project, we began the process of calibrating the three-dimensional Princeton Ocean Model to the specific conditions of Apalachicola Bay by modifying the boundary conditions of a previous version of the bay model, adding updated regional tidal and climatic data, and including river discharge from the Apalachicola River drainage. Calibrations have been done with measured data on salinity in the bay, as well as with data on tidal and hydrodynamic circulation patterns. The WASP water quality module, developed by EPA to simulate water quality processes, has been explored and initial efforts have begun to couple the two models together. We have gathered a series of water quality and climate data for the bay region. We also have acquired data on the Apalachicola River watershed system, including the Flint and Chattahoochee River systems.
These data and other physical and ecological data for the ACF watershed system have been added as layers in the GIS database system that we have initiated. Using these data, we have begun to calibrate the MODBRNCH model to the Apalachicola River system, simulating flow rates at a series of nodes along the river. The ecological modeling has focused on the salt marsh ecosystems, with initial versions of a salt marsh model implemented in FORTRAN to simulate the tidal, hydroperiod, and salinity regime of the salt marshes of the area. The initial model is an extension of a conceptual model published by Morris (1995), to which we have added modifications specific to the salt marshes of the region, as well as model processes to simulate potential evapotranspiration following the Penman-Montieth method.
Using data acquired from a high-resolution, hyperspectral remote sensing activity for the region conducted by the ECSC under separate funding from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), we have begun classifying the habitats of the regional systems, including specific attention to the spatial extent and location of the salt marshes and field ground-truthing of the habitat classifications. Using NOAA-funded field data from cores and pore water sampling, we have begun calibrating the salinity component of the salt marsh model. Finally, the EPA funding has partially supported Dr. Hsieh’s completion of a synthesis chapter on salt marsh panne dynamics to be published in a book on tidal marshes.
Future Activities:
We will: (1) complete the calibration of the Apalachicola Bay hydrodynamic model and initiate the linkage to the WASP water quality module; (2) complete the calibration of the MODBRNCH model to the Apalachicola River; (3) continue the acquisition of data and implementation in the GIS database; (4) continue the development and calibration of the salt marsh ecological/hydrological model; (5) begin the development of habitat suitability index models for the ecosystems of the Apalachicola Bay; and (6) begin the demonstration of ecological risk assessment through development of the test scenarios related to climate change.
Journal Articles on this Report : 1 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 8 publications | 4 publications in selected types | All 3 journal articles |
---|
Type | Citation | ||
---|---|---|---|
|
Huang W, Jones WK, Yang Q. Field experiment study of transient stratified flow in an estuary. Journal of Engineering Mechanics 2003;129(10):1220-1223. |
R830880 (2003) R830880 (2004) |
Exit |
Supplemental Keywords:
marine, estuary, watersheds, risk assessment, ecological effects, chemicals, toxics, particulates, ecosystem, indicators, scaling, terrestrial, aquatic, habitat, integrated assessment, decision-making, environmental chemistry, ecology, hydrology, modeling, remote sensing, porewater salinity distribution, vegetation distribution, salt marshes, mean high tides, mass balance equation, evapotranspiration, diffusion, drainage, secretion, climate, sea-level change, simulations, Apalachicola Bay, St. Marks marshes, Southeastern United States, Gulf Coast, Florida,, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, ECOSYSTEMS, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Ecosystem/Assessment/Indicators, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Monitoring/Modeling, Environmental Monitoring, Regional/Scaling, Ecological Monitoring, Atmosphere, Ecological Indicators, anthropogenic stresses, aquatic ecosystem, risk assessment, stess response, ecosystem assessment, stressors, ecological modeling, modeling, regional environmental health, ecological assessment, hydrology, regional scale impacts, ecosystem indicators, regional scale, Apalachicola Bay, assessment methods, GIS, water quality, ecological risk, environmental stress, bay ecosystem, hydrologic modeling, ecological models, ecosystem stress, three dimensional model, modeling ecological risk, stressor response model, regional hydrologic modelingRelevant Websites:
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.