Grantee Research Project Results
2003 Progress Report: Climatic and Human Impacts on Fire Regimes in Forests and Grasslands of the U.S. Southwest
EPA Grant Number: R828732Title: Climatic and Human Impacts on Fire Regimes in Forests and Grasslands of the U.S. Southwest
Investigators: Morehouse, Barbara J. , Orr, Barron J. , Christopherson, Gary L. , Yool, Stephen R. , Overpeck, Jonathan T. , Swetnam, Thomas W.
Institution: University of Arizona
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: November 1, 2000 through October 1, 2003
Project Period Covered by this Report: November 1, 2002 through October 1, 2003
Project Amount: $1,260,993
RFA: Assessing the Consequences of Interactions between Human Activities and a Changing Climate (2000) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Climate Change , Air
Objective:
The objective of this research project is to improve forest/grassland ecosystem health and sustainability through a better understanding of the consequences of interactions among human factors, climate, biophysical processes, and fire in the U.S. Southwest.
Progress Summary:
We have completed all of the data layers and now can run the model in experimental mode. We currently are in the process of holding four evaluation workshops, one in/near each of our study areas. We will be using the input from these sessions to refine and improve the model. Our plan is to have the model operational on the Wildfire Alternatives Web Site (http://walter.arizona.edu Exit ) by July 2004. Note that a request for a no-cost, 6-month extension of our project has been approved, thus allowing us the extra time to refine the model, finish the programming, and post it on the Web. Our Web site now features considerably more content, including an Arc IMS dynamic animation tool that allows users to view Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)-based information about vegetation greenness and a climate statistical regression tool. The Web site also features a series of policy information pages to assist individuals in understanding how laws such as the Endangered Species Act and the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) intersect with decisionmaking for strategic fire management.
A major decision was made during 2003 to change a basic element in the design of the model. Instead of featuring "canned" weightings for the model layers, the model incorporates user input based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP). In essence, users may weight the layers using remote keypads. The software program Expert Choice computes the results of 17 pair-wise comparisons made by each participant. Individual maps or composite maps of fire probability and risk may then be displayed. Our intent is to offer this interaction via the Web. Some Web-based user interactivity will be available by the end of the extended grant period. We have completed three of our four "beta" evaluation sessions, and have found that participants can engage in AHP and have a high level of interest in the results.
Future Activities:
During the 6-month, no-cost extension period, we will refine the geographic information systems model and complete the programming needed for the model to run on the Web site. Additional informational content will be loaded on the Web site as well. Another major focus during this period will be writing up the results of the project for peer-reviewed publication.
Journal Articles on this Report : 3 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
| Other project views: | All 70 publications | 9 publications in selected types | All 5 journal articles |
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Crimmins MA, Comrie AC. Interactions between antecedent climate and wildfire variability across south-eastern Arizona. International Journal of Wildland Fire 2005;13(4):455-466. |
R828732 (2003) R828732 (Final) R832220 (Final) |
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Miller JD, Crippen RE, Yool SR. Enhanced resolution of dead surface fuels using forced spectral invariance. International Journal of Remote Sensing. |
R828732 (2003) |
not available |
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Westerling AL, Swetnam TW. Interannual to decadal drought and wildfire in the western United States. Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union 2003;84(49):545-560. |
R828732 (2003) |
not available |
Supplemental Keywords:
land, soil, watersheds, precipitation, climate, risk, ecological effects, vulnerability, animal, population, stressor, cumulative effects, ecosystem, indicators, scaling, terrestrial, habitat, integrated model, innovative technology, analytic hierarchy process, policy, decisionmaking, community based, values at risk, fire hazard, survey, preferences, sociological, spatial, temporal, geographical, geographic information systems, GIS, remote sensing, modeling, monitoring, surveys, fire ecology, fire history, fuels assessment, fire, society, Southwest, Arizona, AZ, New Mexico, NM, Jemez Mountains, Santa Catalina Mountains, Rincon Mountains, Chiricahua Mountains, Huachuca Mountains, urban, wildland, wildfire, urban-wildland interface, forestry, recreation, terrestrial ecosystem, integrated assessment, regionalization, public policy, logging, tourism, recreation sectors, forestry, state, climate change, anthropogenic stress, biodiversity, biophysical factors, climate impacts, climate models, climate variability, ecological exposure, ecological impacts, environmental stressors, fire models, fire regimes, fire regimes in forest and grasslands, forests, grasslands, human impacts., RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Geographic Area, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Southwest, Ecology, Ecosystem/Assessment/Indicators, Ecosystem Protection, Environmental Chemistry, climate change, State, Ecological Effects - Environmental Exposure & Risk, Forestry, ecological exposure, logging, environmental monitoring, human impacts, biodiversity, New Mexico (NM), fire models, recreatioonal stress, grasslands, ecological impacts, climate impacts, Arizona (AZ), climate models, fire regimes, forests, environmental stressors, GIS, fire regimes in forests and grasslands, climate variabilityRelevant Websites:
http://walter.arizona.edu Exit
http://gis.esri.com/library/userconf/proc03/p0879.pdf Exit
http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/68181.pdf Exit
http://ag.arizona.edu/OALS/ALN/aln53/orr.html Exit
http://www.for.nau.edu/research/pzf/swfi/Abstracts.htm#Orr Exit
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.