Grantee Research Project Results
2000 Progress Report: Integrated Assessment of Economic Adaptation Strategies for Climate Change Impacts on Midwestern Agriculture
EPA Grant Number: R824996Title: Integrated Assessment of Economic Adaptation Strategies for Climate Change Impacts on Midwestern Agriculture
Investigators: Randolph, J. C. , Littlefield, Bill , Johnston, Jerry , Mazzocco, Michael A. , Doering, Otto C. , Lowenberg-DeBoer, Jess , Pfeifer, Rebecca
Current Investigators: Randolph, J. C. , Mazzocco, Michael A. , Doering, Otto C.
Institution: Indiana University - Bloomington , University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign , Purdue University
Current Institution: Indiana University - Bloomington , Purdue University , University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: October 1, 1996 through September 30, 1999 (Extended to September 22, 2001)
Project Period Covered by this Report: October 1, 1999 through September 30, 2000
Project Amount: $1,393,897
RFA: Global Climate (1996) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Climate Change , Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration
Objective:
In the midwestern Great Lakes states, agriculture is the single largest land use?52 percent is devoted to crops and pastures (Smith and Tirpak 1989). In recent years, about 59 percent of the cash income from corn, 40 percent of the cash income from soybeans, and 26 percent of total agricultural products of the United States were from the midwestern Great Lakes states (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, 1985). Global climate change will cause impacts, possibly both positive and negative, on agricultural production in the United States.The focus of this project is on integrated assessment of potential adaptive responses available to the agricultural sector in the midwestern Great Lakes states (Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio) to maintain productivity and profitability. Using ecosystem and economic modeling, we will assess realistic scenarios of the potential impacts of global climate change on midwestern agriculture and potential adaptive responses in the agricultural sector. The project is conducted by a multidisciplinary team of scientists from three midwestern research universities collaborating on interactive modeling of climate, crops, production enterprises, and institutional/policy systems. An important aspect of this project is the use of carefully selected expert panels to evaluate alternative scenarios and various adaptation strategies for midwestern agriculture.
The objectives of the project are to:
1. Develop detailed characteristics for representative firm farms in each of ten agricultural regions chosen by spatial analysis of soils, climate, crop mixes, and production systems throughout the five states of the midwestern Great Lakes region.
2. Use interactive crop production and ecosystem models and develop appropriate sub-models to analyze representative firm farms in these ten agricultural regions.
3. Evaluate alternative farm decisions using a linear programming model to evaluate crop mixes and production factors such as irrigation, drainage, fertilization, pest control, and tillage. The resulting information about optimal or desirable systems provides input for the crop production and ecosystem models to determine the effects of such decisions on and within regionalized agroecosystems.
4. Develop a number of realistic climate change scenarios from general circulation model output (Hadley center model) for a more moderate and a more extreme climate change scenario, and for a number of different climate variability scenarios.
5. Evaluate the effects of alternative production policies, either constraining or supporting, on crop mixes and production systems in terms of both the economic impacts on regional producers and the ecological impacts on regional agroecosystems under current climatic conditions.
6. Assess the effects of climate change, changing climate variability, and various adaptive responses to that change on firm farm decisions in the ten agricultural regions. Specific risk events common to different agricultural practices and systems will be assessed and used to compare the desirability of alternatives. Aggregate results will allow comparisons among the agricultural regions as well as an assessment for the entire midwestern Great Lakes region.
7. Assess the nature, extent, and consequences of adaptation strategies of representative crop producers in response to the effects of climate change.
Progress Summary:
Using a multidisciplinary team and hierarchical systems approach, this project evaluates the effects of climate change on midwestern crop agriculture in three distinct ways. First, the effects of climate change on midwestern crop ecosystems are evaluated using future climate scenarios and GIS-based crop production simulation modeling. Second, the possible effects of the resulting altered agro-ecosystems on farm management decisions are evaluated using an economic decision model and some results from these analyses become inputs for additional crop production modeling of sensitivity analyses. Third, the aggregate results of likely agroecosystem and farm decision effects will be used to evaluate both farm firm and midwestern regional impacts. The project will assess the nature, extent, and consequences of various adaptation strategies in response to climate change. Institutional constraints on production practices and the resulting effects on agroecosystems and farm profitability also are being incorporated.We have identified ten specific representative agricultural regions and assembled appropriate soil, climate, and other relevant data for these locations. We have structured representative farms (size, resources, machinery stock, etc.) for each region representing larger commercial farms expected to produce the major portion of agricultural commodities.
Members of our research team have visited these representative regions and
consulted with agricultural field staff, university personnel, state
statisticians, etc. We have collected agronomic data (yield adjustments) from
agronomists in all five states as well as economic data such as rental rates.
And our research team established a memorandum of understanding with the
Economic Research Service, USDA to use cost and returns data from their surveys
to assess characteristics of representative farms.
We created a working model
for estimating working field days parameters under various 2050 climate
scenarios for farm firm models with assistance from soil engineers and data from
Midwest Climate Information System.
In order to collect information from knowledgeable experts with expertise in areas critical to this project we convened four expert panels, between December 1996 and October 1997, to address: crop adaptability; pests, plant protection strategies, and climate interactions; cropping systems and production technology; and market and institutional drivers of change in agriculture.
These expert panels have provided very valuable insights and opinions about possible future conditions in midwestern agriculture. A summary has been written for each workshop and the transcripts have been edited to produce a chapter discussing these topics.
We have switched to the DSSAT crop modeling system. We are paying special attention to those aspects of analysis that are critical for assessing the impacts of climate variability so that we can better assess the adaptation opportunities and trade-offs from this most important global climate change impact. Much of our efforts in recent months have focused upon analyzing our climate data, obtaining current climate change projections from the Hadley Center, and assuring that these projections are consistent with those used in National Assessment activities. Also, we spent considerable efforts in calibrating and testing the DSSAT crop model and undertaking the DSSAT model runs.
Work on crop modeling included validation of the corn, soybean, and wheat models against experimental data, and calibration of the models against localized expert opinion. Results were generated for three corn hybrids, three soybean cultivars, and one winter wheat cultivar at each of ten representative farm locations for 10 years of weather data (current or 2050-2059) under seven different climate scenarios. The seven climate scenarios are current climate, HadCM2-GHG run (more extreme warming), HadCM2-SUL run (more moderate warming), and then a halved and a doubled variability run on each future model scenario (? HadCM2-SUL, ? HadCM2-GHG, 2 x HadCM2-SUL, 2 x HadCM2-GHG). The corn and soybean simulations were performed for 20 planting dates each; winter wheat simulations were performed for 9 planting dates. Data on yields, maturity dates, emergence dates (corn only), and tops weight were collected from all of the runs and entered into Excel spreadsheets for summary and analysis. ARC-INFO was used for GIS analysis to plot data enabling spatial analysis to be undertaken. Yield tables for planting date and harvest date combinations were constructed using estimates and data on losses associated with harvest delays and used for input to the economic model, PCLP. In addition, sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the impact of irrigation, extreme temperatures and plant physiological responses to specific climate combinations. Such analysis helps in interpreting the results of our modeling and also in determining thresholds of sensitivity for the different crops.
A summary of the most interesting results was presented at an expert panel convened in Chicago on January 27, 2000. Our panelists raised a number of interesting questions that we are now investigating including more detailed sensitivity analyses to determine exact causes of yield changes between current and future climate runs. The researchers present agreed that our methodology was a good one, our techniques of analysis appropriate and our results representative and seemingly accurate for this work. Panelists helped us to understand some results. Their expertise in modeling and crop physiology gave us more confidence in our results. They also suggested alternative views of the data, which assisted us in its interpretation. They encouraged us to look more closely at the physiological data output by DSSAT to reinforce our conclusions. Finally, the panelists who had considerable experience with models reminded us of some of the peculiarities of the models and that we must keep those in mind when interpreting the results.
We continue to move forward on modeling farm firm economic behavior, though progress was slowed somewhat by the discovery that our proposed analysis was too extensive for the existing PCLP software's reporting capabilities. A newer version with sufficiently increased capacity is now in hand and in use, and we are proceeding with the "construction" of 30 farm firm economic models, one for each combination of location and basic climate scenario (VEMAP, SUL, GHG). We surveyed hundreds of farm records to develop typical "recipes" for the production of our study crops, including complete schedules of tillage, planting, pesticide and fertilizer application, and harvest operations. These and other data were then used to develop a production cost estimator that uses expected yields and soil type to calculate the costs of fertilizers, lime, pesticides, fuel, and seed used in crop production. We are now fine-tuning the results of our first full-scale PCLP simulation of a representative farm firm at Champaign, Illinois, under current climate conditions. This process involves such steps as sizing the machinery set and labor force, reviewing the results for realism and adjusting and reiterating as necessary to achieve results that conform with current practice. The other 29 farm firm models are expected to be variants of this initial model, with practices, expenses, crop yields, and resource endowments suitable to their respective regions.
This year we entered the core of our modeling efforts of farm firm economic behavior. We have nearly concluded construction of the 30 farm firm economic models (one for each location and climate scenario). Cropping practices, expenses, crop yields, and resource endowments are unique to each location and climate scenario, providing some degree of realism in the analysis, and a useful means of comparison across scenarios. Full-scale simulations of the completed models are underway.
Our first analysis of the results involves modifying crop prices within each scenario. This allows us to determine the sensitivity of the system to fluctuating commodity prices. We are interested in studying these impacts, as climate change may well erode the U.S. competitive advantage to some degree, causing prices to change. The relative price ratios, which have historically been rather stable, may also be affected by a changing climate. Changing prices may result in producers growing more or less of a given crop. This type of analysis will provide insight into those decisions, including identification of the factors most restrictive to change.
Preliminary results indicate that under current pricing scenarios, the crop mix will not shift significantly in most areas. While some shifts in the crop mix (growing more corn, for example), might be economically advantageous as crop prices are changed, planter availability would also need to be increased if corn prices increased and the farmer were to grow more corn. The decision is not a simple one at the marginal prices, as the cost of this type of equipment is very high. The interdependence of components of the cropping system upon the whole cannot be overstated. We do expect to see regional differences in the prices at which these types of decisions will be made.
Our concern with institutions is focused increasingly on the development of adaptation strategies and upon the institutional constraints likely in 2050. For example, increased climate variability may require extra changes in tillage systems to meet the likelihood of increased soil erosion that would result in an inability to meet conservation compliance regulations.
Work so far indicates that successful adaptation within the Upper-Midwest can successfully meet the challenges of gradual global climate change (a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration by 2050). Crop stability is likely to be preserved although significant shifts in the basic commodities in the region will occur, as farmers move away form corn and towards soybeans and wheat. A number of critical adaptation vehicles are already in place in both the public and private sector. We are identifying some specific areas of high pay-off from adaptive technology, such as heat-tolerant corn that could better withstand the high summer temperatures. The most critical aspects of global climate change in our judgment are: extreme warming of temperatures in the summer months, which prevent the successful growth of crops such as corn; impacts of increasing climate variability which act to further reduce yields across all crop types (compared to base model runs); and impacts of CO2 fertilization, which gives a competitive advantage to the C3 crops such as wheat and soybeans (compared to the C4 crop corn).
Book Based on the Project. We have a contract with Kluwer Academic Press (due December 2001) for a book titled: "Effects of climate change and variability on agricultural production systems." This book is wider in scope than our midwestern research area but this project does provide the basis for the book. The objective of this book is to provide information on the likely state of agriculture under global climate change in the heart of one of the most productive agricultural area in the country, the Upper Midwest. The focus is on adaptation by agriculture at the farm level to address the question: what will agriculture have to do to maintain production and profitability under global climate change? The focus is on potential consequences and costs of adaptation, not whether there will be global climate change. This book treats global climate change as a potential risk for agriculture in the future and investigates what alternative risk reducing activities might be appropriate and necessary. It also considers the impacts of these alternatives to farm production on representative sites in the region.
Most of the previous and current work on global climate change is on the phenomenon of the change itself or on predictions from large macro models that speculate about impacts on agriculture and other climate dependent activities in large aggregated regions. There is very little work on specific impacts on the ground. A recent shift in the politics of global climate change has shifted attention on the question of what will the impact be in specific places on specific activities. The members of the group represented in this book have been working together for more than 5 years on a research project dealing with this question. The grounding in research and the insights are unique and now extremely timely. This is not a collection of essays from a conference, but the fruits of an integrated effort to ask and answer critical research and policy questions. Because much of the information in this study is spatially specific, we have used a state-of-the-art geographic information system (GIS) to manage and analyze data and to present results. Consequently, we propose to present a number of high quality, full color, regional maps, as well as other selected graphics in an accompanying CD-ROM.
This book will be a must for those interested in food issues and climate impacts. It also will be central in the specific debate about policy measures with respect to global warming. Included are concerns of identifying high payoff opportunities for agricultural research as well as constraints and opportunities for natural resources policy. This book will serve both decision-makers and the research community. It will be written to be accessible while being based on 5 years of multi-disciplinary research that is unique in its focus and application.
Future Activities:
Complete economic/production simulation analysis, continue institutional analysis, and begin preparation of additional manuscripts. Continue with the editing and preparation of the book.Journal Articles on this Report : 3 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 41 publications | 7 publications in selected types | All 4 journal articles |
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Type | Citation | ||
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Doering OC, Habeck M, Lowenberg-DeBoer J, Randolph JC, Johnston JJ, Littlefield BZ, Mazzocco M, Kinwa M, Pfeifer R. Mitigation strategies and unforeseen consequences: a systematic assessment of the adaptation of upper Midwest agriculture to future climate change. World Resource Review 1997;9(4):447-459. |
R824996 (1998) R824996 (2000) R824996 (Final) |
not available |
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Southworth J, Randolph JC, Habeck M, Doering OC, Pfeifer RA, Rao DG, Johnston JJ. Consequences of future climate change and changing climate variability on maize yields in the midwestern United States. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 2000;82(1-3):139-158. |
R824996 (2000) R824996 (Final) |
Exit Exit Exit |
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Southworth J, Pfeifer RA, Habeck M, Randolph JC, Doering OC, Johnston JJ, Rao DG. Changes in soybean yields in the midwestern United States as a result of future changes in climate, climate variability, and CO2 fertilization. Climatic Change 2002;53(4):447-475. |
R824996 (1999) R824996 (2000) R824996 (Final) R825433 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
Supplemental Keywords:
agriculture, midwest, upper midwest, global climate change, climate variability, CO2 fertilization, adaptation, soil, global climate, ecological effect, integrated assessment, general circulation model, climate model., RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Geographic Area, Midwest, climate change, State, Economics, Ecological Risk Assessment, Agronomy, ecosystem models, integrated assessments, hierarchical systems aggregation, adaptive technologies, environmental monitoring, farming, farm income, climate models, agroeconomics, GIS, agriculture, environmental stressors, vulnerability assessment, Wisconsin (WI), ecosystem sustainability, Midwestern agriculture, climate variability, crop production, Michigan (MI)Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.