Grantee Research Project Results
1998 Progress Report: Integrated Assessment of Economic Adaptation Strategies for Climate Change Impacts on Midwestern Agriculture
EPA Grant Number: R824996Title: Integrated Assessment of Economic Adaptation Strategies for Climate Change Impacts on Midwestern Agriculture
Investigators: Randolph, J. C. , Radue, Anna , Southworth, Jane , Johnston, Jerry , Mazzocco, Michael A. , Doering, Otto C. , Lowenberg-DeBoer, Jess , Habeck, Mike , Pfeifer, Rebecca
Current Investigators: Randolph, J. C. , Mazzocco, Michael A. , Doering, Otto C.
Institution: Indiana University - Bloomington , University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign , Purdue University
Current Institution: Indiana University - Bloomington , Purdue University , University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: October 1, 1996 through September 30, 1999 (Extended to September 22, 2001)
Project Period Covered by this Report: October 1, 1997 through September 30, 1998
Project Amount: $1,393,897
RFA: Global Climate (1996) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Climate Change , Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration
Objective:
The project focus is integrated assessment of potential adaptive responses available to the agricultural sector in the Midwestern Great Lakes states (Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio) to maintain productivity and profitability. Using ecosystem and economic modeling, we will assess realistic scenarios of the potential impacts of global climate change on Midwestern agriculture and potential adaptive responses in the agricultural sector. The project is conducted by a multidisciplinary team of scientists from three Midwestern research universities collaborating on interactive modeling of climate, crops, production enterprises, and institutional/policy systems. An important aspect of this project is the use of carefully selected expert panels to evaluate alternative scenarios and various adaptation strategies for Midwestern agriculture.
The objectives of the project were to:
1. Develop detailed characteristics for representative firm farms in each of 11 agricultural regions chosen by spatial analysis of soils, climate, crop mixes, and production systems throughout the five states of the Midwestern Great Lakes region.
2. Use interactive crop production and ecosystem models and develop appropriate sub-models to analyze representative firm farms in these 11 agricultural regions.
3. Evaluate alternative farm decisions using a linear programming model to evaluate crop mixes and production factors such as irrigation, drainage, fertilization, pest control, and tillage. The resulting information about optimal or desirable systems provides input for the crop production and ecosystem models to determine the effects of such decisions on and within regionalized agroecosystems.
4. Develop three or four realistic, but distinctly different climate scenarios, based upon regional-scale projections of possible future climate conditions as derived from current general circulation model (GCM) results.
5. Evaluate the effects of alternative production policies, either constraining or supporting, on crop mixes and production systems in terms of both the economic impacts on regional producers and the ecological impacts on regional agroecosystems under current climatic conditions.
6. Assess the effects of climate change and various adaptive responses to that change on firm farm decisions in the 11 agricultural regions. Specific risk events common to different agricultural practices and systems will be assessed and used to compare the desirability of alternatives. Aggregate results will allow comparisons among the agricultural regions as well as an assessment for the entire Midwestern Great Lakes region.
7. Assess the nature, extent, and consequences of adaptation strategies of representative crop producers in response to the effects of climate change.
Progress Summary:
Using a hierarchical systems approach, this project evaluates the effects of climate change on Midwestern crop agriculture in three distinct ways. First, the effects of climate change on Midwestern crop ecosystems are evaluated using future climate scenarios and Geographical Information Systems (GIS)-based crop production simulation modeling. Second, the possible effects of the resulting altered agroecosystems on farm management decisions are evaluated using an economic decision model, and results from these analyses become inputs for additional crop production modeling. Third, the aggregate results of likely agroecosystem and farm decision effects will be used to evaluate both farm firm and Midwestern regional impacts. The project will assess the nature, extent, and consequences of various adaptation strategies in response to climate change. Institutional constraints on production practices and the resulting effects on agroecosystems and farm profitability also are being incorporated.
We have identified 11 specific representative agricultural regions and assembled appropriate soil, climate, and other relevant data for these locations. We have structured representative farms (size, resources, machinery stock, etc.) for each region representing larger commercial farms expected to produce the major portion of agricultural commodities. Members of our research team have visited these representative regions and consulted with agricultural field staff, university personnel, state statisticians, etc. We have collected agronomic data (yield adjustments) from agronomists in all five states as well as economic data such as rental rates. Our research team established a memorandum of understanding with the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, to use cost and returns data from their surveys to assess characteristics of representative farms.
We created a working model for estimating working field days parameters under
various 2050 climate scenarios for farm firm models with assistance from soil
engineers and data from the Midwest Climate Information System.
In order
to collect information from knowledgeable experts with expertise in areas
critical to this project, we convened four expert panels to address the
following topics:
A. Crop Adaptability, December 13, 1996, Chicago, Illinois.
B. Pests,
Plant Protection Strategies, and Climate Interactions, February 21, 1997,
Phoenix, Arizona.
C. Cropping Systems and Production Technology, July 25,
1997, Toronto, Canada.
D. Market and Institutional Drivers of Change in
Agriculture, October 24, 1997, Bloomington, Indiana.
These expert panels provided very valuable insights and opinions about possible future conditions in Midwestern agriculture. All workshops were recorded and transcribed. A summary has been written for each workshop and the transcripts have been edited to produce chapters discussing each topic.
We have switched to the DSSAT crop modeling system. We are paying special attention to those aspects of analysis, which are critical for assessing the impacts of climate variability so that we can better assess the adaptation opportunities and trade-offs from this most important global climate change impact. Much of our efforts in recent months have focused upon improving our climate data, obtaining current climate change projections from the Hadley Center, and assuring that these projections are consistent with those used in National Assessment activities. Also, we spent considerable efforts in calibrating and testing the DSSAT crop model.
Work so far indicates that successful adaptation within the Upper-Midwest can
successfully meet the challenges of gradual global climate change (a doubling of
atmospheric CO2 concentration by 2050). Crop stability is likely to be preserved
with no major shift to different basic commodities in the region. A number of
critical adaptation vehicles are already in place in both the public and private
sector. We are identifying some specific areas of high pay-off from adaptive
technology such as cold resistant corn, which could better withstand a late
frost. The most critical aspects of global climate change in our judgement are
such things as increasing seasonal fuzziness (less distinct breaks between
seasons with more crossover events between seasons) and increasing climate
variability.
Future Activities:
In the future, we will complete economic/production simulation analysis, continue scenario analysis, continue institutional analysis, and begin preparation of additional manuscripts. We will convene a fifth expert panel workshop to review model results, check assumptions and data used, and provide constructive input for the finalization of the project. We also will begin planning for a symposium and book.Journal Articles on this Report : 1 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 41 publications | 7 publications in selected types | All 4 journal articles |
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Type | Citation | ||
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Doering OC, Habeck M, Lowenberg-DeBoer J, Randolph JC, Johnston JJ, Littlefield BZ, Mazzocco M, Kinwa M, Pfeifer R. Mitigation strategies and unforeseen consequences: a systematic assessment of the adaptation of upper Midwest agriculture to future climate change. World Resource Review 1997;9(4):447-459. |
R824996 (1998) R824996 (2000) R824996 (Final) |
not available |
Supplemental Keywords:
agriculture, upper Midwest, global climate change, adaptation., RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Geographic Area, Midwest, climate change, State, Economics, Ecological Risk Assessment, Agronomy, ecosystem models, integrated assessments, hierarchical systems aggregation, adaptive technologies, environmental monitoring, farming, farm income, climate models, agroeconomics, GIS, agriculture, environmental stressors, vulnerability assessment, Wisconsin (WI), ecosystem sustainability, Midwestern agriculture, climate variability, crop production, Michigan (MI)Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.