2018 Progress Report: Optimal Energy Portfolios to Sustain Economic Advantage, Achieve GHG Targets, and Minimize PM2.5.

EPA Grant Number: R835879
Title: Optimal Energy Portfolios to Sustain Economic Advantage, Achieve GHG Targets, and Minimize PM2.5.
Investigators: Kleeman, Michael J. , Chen, Shu-Hua , Yeh, Sonia , Ogden, Joan , Muller, Nicholas
Institution: University of California - Davis , Carnegie Mellon University
Current Institution: University of California - Davis , Carnegie Mellon University
EPA Project Officer: Keating, Terry
Project Period: April 1, 2016 through March 31, 2019 (Extended to March 31, 2021)
Project Period Covered by this Report: April 1, 2018 through March 31,2019
Project Amount: $790,000
RFA: Particulate Matter and Related Pollutants in a Changing World (2014) RFA Text |  Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air , Climate Change


This research will identify major sources and composition of PM2.5 and related pollutants in the year 2050 resulting from different energy portfolios that optimize economic outcomes under different assumptions about available technology and climate change. The key hypothesis to be tested in the proposed research is that future PM2.5 sources, composition, chemical reactions and spatial distributions will drastically change as a function of future energy portfolio and technology adoption. An ensemble of PM2.5 and ozone exposure scenarios will be produced using results from ongoing research combined with multiple models for energy portfolio optimization, criteria pollutant emissions, air quality downscaling, and health effects analysis. Two state-of-the-science energy models will serve as the foundation of this analysis, along with coupled meteorological & air quality models applied at scales ranging from statewide (100’s km) to neighborhood (250m). Interactions between smart growth and population exposure will also be considered in rapidly growing areas. The outcomes from the proposed research include economically optimized energy portfolios for California that meet the goal of an 80% reduction in GHG emissions by the year 2050, the PM2.5 and ozone outcomes associated with those portfolios, and the air pollution health costs associated with those energy portfolios for different socio-economic segments of society.

Progress Summary:

A statistical analysis was conducted to determine the optimal number of weeks needed to analyze the long-term PM concentrations associated with each climate/emissions scenario. Five additional energy scenarios were identified bringing the total number of energy scenarios considered in the project to ten. The new scenarios include analysis for multiple GHG mitigation strategies including carbon capture and sequestration. Spatial surrogates were created to improve the resolution of emissions inventories to 250m in support of the planned neighborhood analysis activities. Rigorous ozone source apportionment capabilities were developed and tested in regional model calculations to help identify optimal emissions control programs for the residual ozone violations in southern California in the scenarios that adopted low-carbon energy sources. The health benefits of low-carbon energy adoption through improved air quality were re-analyzed using newer published relationships that yielded significantly higher estimates for avoided mortality. Multiple manuscripts are in preparation describing all aspects of the project results.

Future Activities:

Further energy scenarios from CA-TIMES will be translated to criteria pollutant emissions. Further meteorological fields will be derived from global models. High resolution simulations will be conducted over dense urban areas.

Journal Articles on this Report : 2 Displayed | Download in RIS Format

Other project views: All 11 publications 5 publications in selected types All 5 journal articles
Type Citation Project Document Sources
Journal Article Zapata CB, Yang C, Yeh S, Ogden J, Kleeman MJ. Estimating criteria pollutants using the California Regional Multisector Air Quality Emissions (CA-REMARQUE) model v1.0. Geoscientific Model Development 2018;11(4):1293-1320. R835879 (2017)
R835879 (2018)
R835879 (2019)
R835879 (Final)
  • Full-text: eScholarship - Full Text HTML
  • Abstract: ResearchGate - Abstract HTML
  • Journal Article Zapata CB, Yang C, Yeh S, Ogden J, Kleeman MJ. Low carbon energy generates public health savings in California. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2018;18(7):4817-4830. R835879 (2017)
    R835879 (2018)
    R835879 (2019)
    R835879 (Final)
  • Full-text: ACP-Full Text PDF
  • Abstract: ACP-Abstract
  • Supplemental Keywords:

    Source-oriented external mixture, air quality, epidemiology

    Relevant Websites:

    Michael Kleeman Bio Exit

    Progress and Final Reports:

    Original Abstract
  • 2016 Progress Report
  • 2017 Progress Report
  • 2019 Progress Report
  • Final Report