Grantee Research Project Results

2017 Progress Report: Optimal Energy Portfolios to Sustain Economic Advantage, Achieve GHG Targets, and Minimize PM2.5.

EPA Grant Number: R835879
Title: Optimal Energy Portfolios to Sustain Economic Advantage, Achieve GHG Targets, and Minimize PM2.5.
Investigators: Kleeman, Michael J. , Ogden, Joan , Muller, Nicholas , Chen, Shu-Hua , Yeh, Sonia
Current Investigators: Kleeman, Michael J. , Chen, Shu-Hua , Yeh, Sonia , Ogden, Joan , Muller, Nicholas
Institution: University of California - Davis , Middlebury College
Current Institution: University of California - Davis , Carnegie Mellon University
EPA Project Officer: Keating, Terry
Project Period: April 1, 2016 through March 31, 2019 (Extended to March 31, 2021)
Project Period Covered by this Report: April 1, 2017 through March 31,2018
Project Amount: $790,000
RFA: Particulate Matter and Related Pollutants in a Changing World (2014) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air , Climate Change

Objective:

This research will identify major sources and composition of particulate matter (PM2.5) and related pollutants in the year 2050 resulting from different energy portfolios that optimize economic outcomes under different assumptions about available technology and climate change. The key hypothesis to be tested in the proposed research is that future PM2.5 sources, composition, chemical reactions and spatial distributions will drastically change as a function of future energy portfolio and technology adoption. An ensemble of PM2.5 and ozone exposure scenarios will be produced using results from ongoing research combined with multiple models for energy portfolio optimization, criteria pollutant emissions, air quality downscaling, and health effects analysis. Two state-of-the-science energy models will serve as the foundation of this analysis, along with coupled meteorological & air quality models applied at scales ranging from statewide (100’s km) to neighborhood (250 m). Interactions between smart growth and population exposure will also be considered in rapidly growing areas. The outcomes from the proposed research include economically optimized energy portfolios for California that meet the goal of an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by the year 2050, the PM2.5 and ozone outcomes associated with those portfolios, and the air pollution health costs associated with those energy portfolios for different socio-economic segments of society.

Progress Summary:

An interface was constructed and tested between the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model and the second general circulation model (GCM) to be used in the project to create the ensemble of meteorological conditions. Analysis for the second half of the meteorological fields is in progress. Three additional future energy scenarios were created to examine the effects of widespread biogas adoption in California that will contribute to the ensemble of results. The air quality simulations needed to analyze these three biogas scenarios are currently in progress. Both the CA-TIMES energy economic model and the CA-REMARQUE model that translates energy scenarios into criteria pollution emissions were updated to add more detail. Up to eight (8) additional energy scenarios have been identified for the ensemble analysis and these are currently being transformed to criteria pollutant emissions. The initial probability distribution of health impacts and associated costs have been calculated using the air quality results for the first two scenarios that have been fully analyzed. The median results for air quality and public health impacts from these first two scenarios were revised and published.

Future Activities:

The following future activities are planned:

Further energy scenarios from CA-TIMES will be translated to criteria pollutant emissions.
Further meteorological fields will be derived from global models.
High resolution simulations will be conducted over dense urban areas.

Journal Articles on this Report : 2 Displayed | Download in RIS Format

Publications Views
Other project views:	All 11 publications	5 publications in selected types	All 5 journal articles

Publications
Type	Citation	Project	Document Sources
Journal Article	Zapata CB, Yang C, Yeh S, Ogden J, Kleeman MJ. Estimating criteria pollutants using the California Regional Multisector Air Quality Emissions (CA-REMARQUE) model v1.0. Geoscientific Model Development 2018;11(4):1293-1320.	R835879 (2017) R835879 (2018) R835879 (2019) R835879 (Final)	Full-text: eScholarship - Full Text HTML Exit Abstract: ResearchGate - Abstract HTML Exit
Journal Article	Zapata CB, Yang C, Yeh S, Ogden J, Kleeman MJ. Low carbon energy generates public health savings in California. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2018;18(7):4817-4830.	R835879 (2017) R835879 (2018) R835879 (2019) R835879 (Final)	Full-text: ACP-Full Text PDF Exit Abstract: ACP-Abstract Exit

Supplemental Keywords:

Source-oriented external mixture, air quality, epidemiology

Relevant Websites:

Professor Michael Kleeman Bio Exit Exit

Progress and Final Reports:

Original Abstract

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.