Grantee Research Project Results
1999 Progress Report: Whole Watershed Health and Restoration: Applying the Patuxent and Gwynns Falls Landscape Models to Designing a Sustainable Balance Between Humans and the Rest of Nature
EPA Grant Number: R827169Title: Whole Watershed Health and Restoration: Applying the Patuxent and Gwynns Falls Landscape Models to Designing a Sustainable Balance Between Humans and the Rest of Nature
Investigators: Costanza, Robert , Voinov, Alexey , Villa, Ferdinando , Boumans, Roelof , Maxwell, Thomas
Current Investigators: Costanza, Robert , Voinov, Alexey , Villa, Ferdinando , Wainger, Lisa , Boumans, Roelof , Maxwell, Thomas
Institution: University of Maryland - College Park
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: March 1, 1999 through February 28, 2001
Project Period Covered by this Report: March 1, 1999 through February 28, 2000
Project Amount: $699,916
RFA: Water and Watersheds (1998) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Water , Watersheds
Objective:
As part of a previous Environmental Protection Agency/National Science Foundation (EPA/NSF) funded project we have developed an integrated, spatially-explicit model of the Patuxent watershed, MD (http://iee.umces.edu/PLM). We also are expanding and applying this model to the Gwynns Falls watershed in urban Baltimore as part of the NSF-funded Baltimore Ecosystem Study LTER project (http://baltimore.umbc.edu/lter/). These models and their associated databases give us a unique capability to test various policy scenarios and ecosystem restoration options at the whole watershed scale, for both a largely rural/suburban watershed (the Patuxent) and a largely urban/commercial watershed (Gwynns Falls). Our objectives are to: 1. Further develop and test the Patuxent Landscape Model (PLM) as a tool for whole watershed analysis and restoration, specifically: (a) further develop and test the socioeconomic sectors and their dynamic links to the ecological sectors; (b) apply the approach to the Gwynns Falls watershed and intercompare with the Patuxent; and (c) perform detailed scenario analyses including a range of spatial pattern, management, policy, and climate options. 2. Develop (with broad stakeholder participation) and test methods to assess the ecological health of ecosystems and watersheds. 3. Develop preferred future states for the watersheds using the results of 1 and 2 above and broad stakeholder participation. 4. Based on the above, test the degree to which various management policies can restore the ecological health of the Patuxent and Gwynns Falls watersheds and achieve the preferred future states.Progress Summary:
Model Development. We performed analyses for 18 scenarios of land use change and nutrient loadings. The scenarios included a group of historical scenarios based on the U.S.Geological Survey (USGS) reconstruction (Buchanan, et al., 1998) of land use in the Patuxent watershed; a buildout scenario that assumed that all currently zoned development in the area occurred; agricultural Best Management Practices (BMP) based on 1997 land use with lowered fertilizer application and crop rotation; a group of scenarios of change in land use over the 5 years following 1997 (i.e., for 2003) based on the Economic Land Use Conversion (ELUC) Model by N. Bockstael; and another group of hypothetical scenarios to study more dramatic change in land use patterns using the 1997 land use as the starting point to assess the total impact of agriculture and urban land uses in the watershed. The scenarios were driven by changes in the Landuse map, the Sewers map, patterns of fertilizer application, amounts of atmospheric deposition, and location and number of dwelling units. We compare the model output in the different scenarios looking at nitrogen concentration in the Patuxent River as an indicator of water quality, changes in the hydrologic flow, and changes in the net primary productivity of the landscape, among other things. The PLM has been calibrated to mimic the hydrologic flows in the Villa Nova subwatershed of Gwynns Falls. We will be expanding to other subwatersheds and the full watershed as the data for calibration become available. The human capital model has been further developed and tested. Calibrations were successful against data from the U.S. Census Bureau on population dynamics in Baltimore between 1990 and 1994. Workshop Process. A stakeholder workshop (Patuxent and Gwynns Falls watersheds) was held on February 14 at the University of Maryland College Park Campus. Breakout groups discussed the most appropriate uses of the model, assessed what model scenarios would prove most useful to stakeholders, and sought common ground concerning preferred future states of the Patuxent and Gwynns Falls Watersheds as a step towards defining end points for restoration efforts. As the initial phase of an analytical hierarchy process, participants completed pair-wise comparison matrices for priority assessment of the first two issues discussed in the breakout groups. The workshop proved valuable in developing future directions for model development to better meet stakeholder needs, and in initiating the task of defining preferred states for the watersheds.Future Activities:
We will focus on development of additional modules including: deer population dynamics, the dynamics of land use transition, phosphorus cycling, and the human system (including built, human, and social capital). We also will focus on several subwatersheds of the Patuxent to investigate particular problem issues that are most urgent at the local scale. These include erosion control and sewage disposal. We will express results in terms of ecosystem services and ultimately in terms of the value of ecosystem services (Costanza, et al., 1997). This will allow us to search for solutions and scenarios that maximize the total value of the watersheds, including both natural and human-made capital. We also will test the relationships between ecosystem services and systems level indicators of ecosystem health (vigor, organization, and resilience?Costanza and Mageau, 1999) applicable at the watershed scale. Future workshops will continue the task of defining watershed restoration goals and ecosystem health.Journal Articles on this Report : 1 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 27 publications | 15 publications in selected types | All 12 journal articles |
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Type | Citation | ||
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Voinov AA, Costanza R, Wainger LA, Boumans RMJ, Villa F, Maxwell T, Voinov H. Integrated ecological economic modeling of watersheds. Journal of Environmental Modelling and Software 1999;14(5):473-491. |
R827169 (1999) |
not available |
Supplemental Keywords:
watershed, modeling, sustainability, socioeconomics, Mid-Atlantic, Maryland, MD., RFA, Scientific Discipline, Geographic Area, Water, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Nutrients, Water & Watershed, Ecosystem/Assessment/Indicators, Ecosystem Protection, State, Restoration, Ecological Effects - Environmental Exposure & Risk, Monitoring/Modeling, Economics and Business, Mid-Atlantic, Aquatic Ecosystem Restoration, Urban and Regional Planning, Social Science, Watersheds, stakeholder groups, aquatic ecosystem, nutrient transport, ecological effects, ecological exposure, community involvement, nutrient loading, sustainable development, nutrient sensitive ecosystems, alternative urbanization scenarios, suburban watersheds, urban watershed rehabilitation method, non-point sources of nutrients, Gwynns Falls, biodiversity, non-point source pollution, watershed sustainablity, urban landscapes, socioeconomics, watershed modeling, Maryland (MD), ecological recovery, web site development, integrated assessment, integrated watershed model, aquatic ecosystems, environmental rehabilitation, ecosystem restoration, non-point sources, ecosystem, ecosystem health, water quality, environmentally stable landscape, landscape characterization, socioeconomic, ecology assessment models, intergrated watershed model, Patuxent River watershed, watershed restoration, land use, stakeholder feedbackRelevant Websites:
http://iee.umces.edu/PLM
http://baltimore.umbc.edu/lter
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.