Grantee Research Project Results
2012 Progress Report: Predicting Regional Allergy Hotspots in Future Climate Scenarios – Putting the Where & When on Wheezing
EPA Grant Number: R834359Title: Predicting Regional Allergy Hotspots in Future Climate Scenarios – Putting the Where & When on Wheezing
Investigators: Foster, David R. , Rogers, Christine A. , Stinson, Kristina
Institution: Harvard University , University of Massachusetts - Amherst
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: September 1, 2009 through August 31, 2013 (Extended to August 31, 2014)
Project Period Covered by this Report: September 1, 2011 through August 31,2012
Project Amount: $898,634
RFA: Climate Change and Allergic Airway Disease (2008) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Climate Change , Human Health
Objective:
The overall aim of this project is predicting how pollen production by the allergenic plant,commonragweed,may change in response to current and future climatic variation, using the Northeastern US region as a case study. We are exploring the relationships between pollen allergy risk factors and climate data,and testing the hypothesis
That a population’s origin will determine its response to climate change variables. Data from our field observations and experiments will be used in combination with geographic data sets on climate and human demographic patterns to model the distribution of ragweed and assess specific risk factors (output, timing, and pollenpotency)for ragweed allergy exposure across the region. The key question to be answered by this research is: Where and when are ragweed allergies most likely to occur and/or worsen under predicted climate change scenarios in New England?
Progress Summary:
This is the third year in a four--‐year project, and is strongly focused on completion of field observations, data compilation, and data analysis. Activities in Year 3 included: (a) compiling data from a major CO2 experiment using ragweed ecotypes from different climate zones in New England; (b) collecting demographic and pollen production data from 24 ragweed populations across an environmental gradient in Massachusetts; (c) completing a third year of airborne pollen sampling and analyzing variation in pollen clouds across this same Massachusetts gradient; and (d) preliminary stages of mapping the occurrence of ragweed across the region. Preliminary analyses of our experimental data indicate strong ecotypic variation in the growth and flowering responses of ragweed to increased CO2 levels. We are now in the final stages of analyzing pollen produced by these experimental ecotypes to determine how future CO2 levels may also affect pollen output and potencies. Our demographic surveys demonstrate important inter--‐population differences in the growth, flowering times, and allometric relationships between size and reproduction that will be key considerations for future predictions of landscape--‐level pollen productivity. Our datasets on airborne pollen reflect the differences in plant phenology and flowering abundance observed in the field, suggesting that spatial variation in ragweed on the landscape is indicative of potential differences in human exposures to pollen. Our modeling of ragweed distribution demonstrates that land cover variables, along with climate, are key determinants of current ragweed occurrence. We are thus working to capture future scenarios of both land cover and climate for our predictive maps of future ragweed risk factors. Together, our research on experimental response to future climate, ragweed population dynamics and spatial distribution, and aerobiology of ragweed pollen, will create the foundation for several manuscripts on current and future “ragweed hotspots” which we plan to produce in the coming year.
Future Activities:
In 2013 we will complete the laboratory analysis of pollen production and allergen protein assays from our CO2 experiments, continue developing a model of future ragweed distribution, finalize analysis and continue with preparing several manuscripts. Year 4+ will mark the most intensive analytical phase and the creation of pollen risk maps from our datasets
Journal Articles:
No journal articles submitted with this report: View all 13 publications for this projectSupplemental Keywords:
common ragweed, pollen, allergy, Amb--‐A1 protein, RFA, Health, Scientific Discipline, Air, Health Risk Assessment, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Risk Assessments, Ecology and Ecosystems, Atmosphere, environmental monitoring, ecosystem models, climatic influence, future projections, allergic airway disease, global vegetation models, climate models, allergens, air qualityRelevant Websites:
http://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/highlights.html#sept2010 ExitProgress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.