Grantee Research Project Results
2013 Progress Report: Predicting Regional Allergy Hotspots in Future Climate Scenarios – Putting the Where & When on Wheezing
EPA Grant Number: R834359Title: Predicting Regional Allergy Hotspots in Future Climate Scenarios – Putting the Where & When on Wheezing
Investigators: Foster, David R. , Rogers, Christine A. , Stinson, Kristina
Institution: Harvard University , University of Massachusetts - Amherst
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: September 1, 2009 through August 31, 2013 (Extended to August 31, 2014)
Project Period Covered by this Report: September 1, 2012 through August 31,2013
Project Amount: $898,634
RFA: Climate Change and Allergic Airway Disease (2008) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Climate Change , Human Health
Objective:
The central objective of this work is to better predict the impacts of climate change on pollen-induced allergic airway disease. We will combine field sampling, geographic information system (GIS) analysis, and controlled experiments to predict when and where pollen allergies are most likely to increase in response to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide and seasonal precipitation patterns, using the widespread hay-fever allergenic plant, common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.), as a model system.
Specifically, we aim to: (1) Model pollen allergy risk factors as a function of regional climate patterns; (2) Provide ecological data on allergenic plant responses to a range of current & future seasonal conditions; and (3) Generate predictive maps of allergy “hotspots” under a range of climate change scenarios. We are evaluating the effects of environmental conditions on three pollen allergy risk factors: (i) timing of pollen production (onset, peak and duration); (ii) pollen output; and (iii) allergic potency (Amb-1 protein levels) in order to address the following questions: What is the role of climate on the production, distribution, dispersion and potency of pollen? How do climatic conditions affect growth, distribution and phenology of allergenic plant species? How will these risk factors change in future climate scenarios?
Progress Summary:
Activities in Year 4 included: (a) compiling data from a major CO2 experiment using ragweed ecotypes from different climate zones in New England; (b) analyzing a three year dataset on variation in pollen clouds across Massachusetts; and (d) preliminary stages of mapping the future occurrence of ragweed across the region. Preliminary analyses of our experimental data indicate strong ecotypic variation in the growth and reproductive responses of ragweed to increased CO2 levels. We are now in the final stages of analyzing pollen produced by these experimental ecotypes to determine how future CO2 levels may also affect pollen output and allergenic potencies. Our datasets on airborne pollen reflect the differences in plant phenology and flowering abundance observed in the field, suggesting that spatial variation in ragweed on the landscape is indicative of potential differences in human exposures to pollen.
Together, our research on experimental response to future climate, ragweed population dynamics and spatial distribution, and aerobiology of ragweed pollen, will create the foundation for several manuscripts on current and future “ragweed hotspots” which we plan to produce in the coming year.
Future Activities:
In 2014 we will complete the laboratory analysis of allergen protein assays from our CO2 experiments, continue developing a model of future ragweed distribution, finalize analysis and continue with preparing and submitting several manuscripts. Year 5 will mark the most intensive analytical phase and the creation of pollen risk maps from our datasets.
Journal Articles:
No journal articles submitted with this report: View all 13 publications for this projectSupplemental Keywords:
common ragweed, pollen, allergy, Amb--‐A1 protein, RFA, Health, Scientific Discipline, Air, Health Risk Assessment, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Risk Assessments, Ecology and Ecosystems, Atmosphere, environmental monitoring, ecosystem models, climatic influence, future projections, allergic airway disease, global vegetation models, climate models, allergens, air qualityProgress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.