Grantee Research Project Results
2010 Progress Report: Predicting Regional Allergy Hotspots in Future Climate Scenarios – Putting the Where & When on Wheezing
EPA Grant Number: R834359Title: Predicting Regional Allergy Hotspots in Future Climate Scenarios – Putting the Where & When on Wheezing
Investigators: Foster, David R. , Rogers, Christine A. , Stinson, Kristina
Institution: Harvard University , University of Massachusetts - Amherst
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: September 1, 2009 through August 31, 2013 (Extended to August 31, 2014)
Project Period Covered by this Report: September 1, 2009 through August 31,2010
Project Amount: $898,634
RFA: Climate Change and Allergic Airway Disease (2008) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Human Health , Climate Change
Objective:
The central objective of this work is to better predict the impacts of climate change on pollen-induced allergic airway disease. We will combine field sampling, geographic information system (GIS) analysis, and controlled experiments to predict when and where pollen allergies are most likely to increase in response to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide and seasonal precipitation patterns, using the widespread hay-fever allergenic plant, common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.), as a model system. Specifically, we aim to: (1) model pollen allergy risk factors as a function of regional climate patterns; (2) provide ecological data on allergenic plant responses to a range of current and future seasonal conditions; and (3) generate predictive maps of allergy “hotspots” under a range of climate change scenarios. We are evaluating the effects of environmental conditions on three pollen allergy risk factors: (i) timing of pollen production (onset, peak and duration); (ii) pollen output; and (iii) allergic potency (Amb-1 protein levels) to address the following questions: What is the role of climate on the production, distribution, dispersion and potency of pollen? How do climatic conditions affect growth, distribution and phenology of allergenic plant species? How will these risk factors change in future climate scenarios?
Progress Summary:
The 2010 field season is the first in this 4-year project, and is strongly focused on locating and mapping pollen risk areas for metropolitan and climate gradients in New York, Massachusetts, and Vermont. This includes field work to map and identify common ragweed occurrence and abundance across the region. To date, we have developed remote sensing methods and conducted a presence/absence survey for locating and mapping common ragweed as a function of several land cover, climate and human demographic factors. Fieldwork for this effort will continue in Year 2. We have also identified a subset of 24 study populations that will be used in Years 2-4 to quantify pollen productivity, flowering time and duration, and pollen potency across the region. To link these datasets to high resolution pollen counts, we installed and collected pollen from five rooftop Burkard traps in Massachusetts, which provide hourly counts of airborne pollen grains throughout the pollen season (May-October). The traps are located along an urban-to-rural gradient from Boston to surrounding suburban and outlying rural areas, a transect that captures the extent of climatic variation across the region as well as variation in human population densities and associated landscape features.
Together, our field data and pollen counts will be linked to national climate data using a variety of different modeling techniques in subsequent years of the study. For an upcoming global change experiment in Year 2, we have collected seed from 9 wild populations of ragweed in each of the three metropolitan areas. These will be grown in a common garden design under experimental CO2 levels. Seeds are currently in stratification at University of Amherst for scheduled experimental use in June 2011.
Future Activities:
In 2011, we will complete the presence absence survey and collect demographic data on ragweed populations across an urban-rural gradient in Massachusetts. We will also install a major CO2 experiment at the Harvard Forest to test for ecotypic variation among ragweed populations from NY, MA and VT in their pollen output, timing and potency.
Journal Articles:
No journal articles submitted with this report: View all 13 publications for this projectSupplemental Keywords:
common ragweed, pollen, allergy, Amb-A1 protein,, RFA, Health, Air, Scientific Discipline, Health Risk Assessment, Risk Assessments, Atmosphere, Air Pollution Effects, climate change, Ecology and Ecosystems, air quality, ecosystem models, public health effects, environmental monitoring, climate models, future projections, allergens, climatic influence, allergic airway diseaseRelevant Websites:
http://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/highlights.html#sept2010 Exit
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.