Grantee Research Project Results
Final Report: Analysis of the Co-benefits of Greenhouse Gas Abatement for Global and US Air Quality under Future Climate Scenarios
EPA Grant Number: R834285Title: Analysis of the Co-benefits of Greenhouse Gas Abatement for Global and US Air Quality under Future Climate Scenarios
Investigators: West, J. Jason , Hanna, Adel , Smith, Steven J. , Horowitz, Larry W. , Emmons, Louisa , Vizuete, William
Institution: University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill , Pacific Northwest National Laboratory , NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory , National Center for Atmospheric Research
Current Institution: University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill , NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory , National Center for Atmospheric Research , Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: September 1, 2009 through August 31, 2013
Project Amount: $300,000
RFA: Adaptation for Future Air Quality Analysis and Decision Support Tools in Light of Global Change Impacts and Mitigation (2008) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air Quality and Air Toxics , Climate Change , Air
Objective:
Actions to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) will affect air quality directly through reductions in emissions of co-emitted air pollutants, and indirectly through changes in global climate. Research on the effects of climate change on air quality has emphasized meteorological downscaling to translate future climate change from general circulation models (GCMs) to a regional scale. Here, we propose to emphasize methods of chemical downscaling, in which future climate and pollutant emissions will be simulated in a global chemical transport model (CTM), to provide initial and boundary conditions for a U.S.-focused regional CTM. We use these methods to address the air quality co-benefits of actions to reduce GHG emissions, both globally and in the United States, by analyzing the mitigation of methane emissions and the control of GHGs generally in future scenarios to 2050.
Summary/Accomplishments (Outputs/Outcomes):
Computer modeling was used extensively in this project, but no new models were created. The atmospheric models used were driven by model output from the GCAM global energy-economics model and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory AM3 general circulation model – applications of these models were beyond the scope of this project. In this project, MOZART-2 was used for atmospheric modeling in Smith et al. (2011), and MOZART-4 was used as reported in West et al. (2013). Details on the model setup and model evaluation with measurements can be found in these publications.
We used modeling methods for processing emissions that were developed by the West research laboratory at UNC, but the development of these computer codes is beyond the scope of this project and is described by Fry et al. (2013). In addition, we used computer codes for evaluating human health outcomes related to air pollution that were also developed in the West laboratory, though outside of the scope of this project. These methods are described by Anenberg et al. (2010) and Silva et al. (2013). For the application in the co-benefits study, we used estimates of future population and baseline mortality rates from the International Futures system, as described by West et al. (2013).
Conclusions:
References:
Anenberg, S. C., L. W. Horowitz, D. Q. Tong, and J. J. West (2010) An estimate of the global burden of anthropogenic ozone and fine particulate matter on premature human mortality using atmospheric modeling, Environmental Health Perspectives, 118(9): 1189-1195, doi:10.1289/ehp.0901220.
Fry, M. M., M. D. Schwarzkopf, Z. Adelman, V. Naik, W. J. Collins, and J. J. West (2013) Net radiative forcing and air quality responses to regional CO emission reductions, Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics, 13, 5381-5399, doi:10.5194/acp-13-5381-2013.
Silva, R. A., J. J. West, Y. Zhang, S. C. Anenberg, J.-F. Lamarque, D. T. Shindell, D. Bergmann, T. K. Berntsen, P. Cameron-Smith, W. J. Collins, S. J. Ghan, B. Josse, T. Nagashima, V. Naik, D. Plummer, J. M. Rodriguez, S. Szopa, and G. Zeng (2013) Global premature mortality due to anthropogenic outdoor air pollution and the contribution of past climate change, Environmental Research Letters, 8, 034005, 11 p., doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034005.
Smith, S. J., J. J. West, and P. Kyle (2011) Economically consistent long-term scenarios for air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions, Climatic Change, 108: 619-627.
West, J. J., S. J. Smith, R. A. Silva, V. Naik, Y. Zhang, Z. Adelman, M. M. Fry, S. Anenberg, L., W. Horowitz, and J.-F. Lamarque (2013) Co-benefits of mitigating global greenhouse gas emissions for future air quality and human health, Nature Climate Change, 3: 885-889, doi:10.1038/nclimate2009
Journal Articles on this Report : 6 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 15 publications | 6 publications in selected types | All 6 journal articles |
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Smith SJ, West JJ, Kyle P. Economically consistent long-term scenarios for air pollutant emissions. Climatic Change 2011;108(3):619-627. |
R834285 (2009) R834285 (2011) R834285 (2012) R834285 (Final) |
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Smith S, West JJ, Kyle P. Cobenefits of global and domestic greenhouse gas emissions for air quality and human health. MEETING ABSTRACTS 2017;389:23-23. |
R834285 (Final) |
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West JJ, Smith SJ, Silva RA, Naik V, Zhang Y, Adelman Z, Fry MM, Anenberg S, Horowitz LW, Lamarque J-F. Co-benefits of mitigating global greenhouse gas emissions for future air quality and human health. Nature Climate Change 2013;3(10):885-889. |
R834285 (Final) |
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Zhang Y, Bowden JH, Adelman Z, Naik V, Horowitz LW, Smith SJ, West JJ. Co-benefits of global and regional greenhouse gas mitigation for US air quality in 2050. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2016;16(15):9533-9548. |
R834285 (Final) |
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Zhang Y, Cooper OR, Gaudel A, Thompson AM, Nedelec P, Ogino S-Y, West JJ. Tropospheric ozone change from 1980 to 2010 dominated by equatorward redistribution of emissions. Nature Geoscience 2016;9(12):875-879. |
R834285 (Final) R835878 (2016) R835878 (2018) R835878 (2019) R835878 (Final) |
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Zhang Y, Smith SJ, Bowden JH, Adelman Z, West JJ. Co-benefits of global, domestic, and sectoral greenhouse gas mitigation for US air quality and human health in 2050. Environmental Research Letters 2017;12(11):114033 (11 pp.). |
R834285 (Final) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
PM2.5, PM10, multi-pollutant strategies, climate-air interactions, RFA, Air, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Atmosphere, environmental monitoring, greenhouse gases, GHGRelevant Websites:
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.
Project Research Results
- 2012 Progress Report
- 2011 Progress Report
- 2010 Progress Report
- 2009 Progress Report
- Original Abstract
6 journal articles for this project