Grantee Research Project Results
Final Report: Air Pollution, Health and Economic Impacts of Global Change Policy andFuture Technologies: An Integrated Model Analysis
EPA Grant Number: R834279Title: Air Pollution, Health and Economic Impacts of Global Change Policy andFuture Technologies: An Integrated Model Analysis
Investigators: Selin, Noelle Eckley , Graham, John , Webster, Mort D. , Prinn, Ronald G. , Wang, Chien , Yang, Huiyan , Reilly, John , Amar, Praveen , Paltsev, Sergey
Institution: Harvard University , NESCAUM , Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Current Institution: Harvard University , Massachusetts Institute of Technology , NESCAUM
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: September 1, 2009 through August 31, 2012 (Extended to February 28, 2014)
Project Amount: $600,000
RFA: Adaptation for Future Air Quality Analysis and Decision Support Tools in Light of Global Change Impacts and Mitigation (2008) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air Quality and Air Toxics , Climate Change , Air
Objective:
The central research questions for this study were: 1) How will technologies and policy choices in response to global change impact air quality, human health and the economy on global to local scales by 2050? 2) What are the quantified costs and benefits of these different adaptation choices? Our focus was to assess the local air pollution impacts of energy and transportation technologies and air pollution and climate policies, separately and in combination. We assessed the impacts on human health and the economic benefits and costs of these policies and technologies.
To conduct this research, we developed and used an integrated modeling framework. We developed model links between existing models of air quality, human health, and the economy. This involved linking the United States Regional Energy Policy (USREP) model, the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx), and the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis (BenMAP) program. We evaluated the potential uncertainties that arise with linking air quality to health impacts modeling, specifically addressing the question of model resolution. We used our coupled framework to evaluate carbon policies on a national and regional level, including cap-and-trade, clean energy, and transportation policies, and conducted associated sensitivity analysis.
We then extended our methodology to assess health-related economic benefits endogenously, closing the loop and providing additional economic evaluation of our scenarios.
Summary/Accomplishments (Outputs/Outcomes):
Our study had outputs and outcomes in several areas.
- Model development: A major output of this project is the model framework we developed to assess technologies and policy choices and their impact on air quality in the next several decades. We constructed and evaluated an integrated, fully-coupled model that simulates the air pollution implications of carbon policies, applied nationally or regionally in the U.S. The model linked the USREP, CAMx and BenMAP models. The integrated model framework, developed, applied and explored as part of this project, can be used to evaluate how policy choices in response to global change impact air quality, human health, and the economy in the United States in the next several decades. Run in different configurations, our framework allows evaluation using several methods of the quantified costs and benefits of policy and adaptation choices.
- Uncertainty Analysis: We conducted extensive analyses on model configurations and associated uncertainties for linking air quality and health analysis. Our results provide guidance for linking regional models and health impacts analysis regarding choice of model resolution. In particular, we evaluated whether policy-relevant conclusions differed based on model resolution choice applied to health impacts analysis. We additionally evaluated the sensitivity of these results to choice of pollutant and regional characteristics.
- Scenario Analysis: We examined national and regional climate policy scenarios, to assess the air pollution related co-benefits. We examined the effect of clean energy standards, transportation-focused policies, and cap-and-trade carbon policies, at national scale and applied to the Northeast U.S. We calculated the costs of these policies using economic modeling, and regulatory-relevant air pollution health-related economic benefits estimates using BenMAP.
- Coupled Analysis: We additionally examined an alternate methodology for assessing air pollution co-benefits, which takes into account endogenous economic responses to morbidities and mortalities as a result of air pollution impacts.
Conclusions:
The conclusions of this project inform both scientific evaluation of climate and adaptation policies, and the development of policies to address climate change and air pollution, separately and in combination. A major conclusion of our work was that climate policies in the U.S., in particular cap-and-trade policies, have air pollution-related health co-benefits that can more than compensate for their costs. Specific conclusions based on work conducted in this project are detailed below.
- Integrated assessment methods can provide information useful for assessing technologies and policy choices, and their impact on air quality in the next several decades.
- Considering uncertainties in both air quality modeling and benefits analysis, regional-scale ozone modeling at a resolution finer than 12 km is unlikely to reduce uncertainty in policy evaluation. This result was based on a study of Houston, Texas, and applies to areas with similar chemistry, population density and meteorology.
- When estimating human health benefits associated with decreases in ozone and PM2.5 together, the benefits calculated at 36 km resolution agree, within errors, with the benefits calculated using fine (12 km or finer) resolution modeling when using the current methodology for assessing policy decisions.
- Health-related air pollution benefits alone can offset policy costs by up to tenfold for a cap and trade program applied nation-wide in the U.S. Air pollution co-benefits can counteract a large fraction of the costs of a national clean energy standard, but a smaller fraction of the costs of transportation focused policies.
- Health-related air pollution co-benefits are achievable at present levels of air quality control and proposed carbon reduction in the U.S. However, more aggressive levels of carbon reductions will not achieve proportional air quality benefits.
- Policy and economic assumptions had a larger impact on policy costs in assessing the co-benefits of carbon policy for air quality, than on median co-benefits, both across and within different scenarios. Our study revealed differences in the impact of uncertainties on co-benefits, however. Despite having the most net benefit, cap-and-trade approaches had the most varied costs and benefits across different assumptions. For policies limited to a single sector, net benefits were smaller, but less variable under different assumptions.
- A US carbon cap could have a measurable, positive impact on regional air quality relative to BAU, similar in magnitude to air quality policy specifically targeting O3 and PM2.5. However, carbon policies are more expensive than corresponding air quality policies.
- Based on consistent economic analyses for costs and benefits, air quality co-benefits can indeed “pay for” cap-and-trade policies when accounting for real-world economic welfare impacts resulting from air pollution mortalities and morbidities.
Journal Articles on this Report : 13 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 21 publications | 17 publications in selected types | All 14 journal articles |
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Blanc E, Strzepek K, Schlosser A, Jacoby H, Gueneau A, Fant C, Rausch S, Reilly J. Modeling U.S. water resources under climate change. Earth’s Future 2014;2(4):197-224. |
R834279 (Final) R830960 (Final) |
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Fant C, Schlosser CA, Gao X, Strzepek K, Reilly J. Projections of water stress based on an ensemble of socioeconomic growth and climate change scenarios: a case study in Asia. PLoS One 2016;11(3):e0150633 (33 pp.). |
R834279 (Final) R830960 (Final) |
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Fant C, Gunturu B, Schlosser A. Characterizing wind power resource reliability in southern Africa. APPLIED ENERGY 2016;161:565-573. |
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Nam K-M, Selin NE, Reilly JM, Paltsev S. Measuring welfare loss caused by air pollution in Europe:a CGE analysis. Energy Policy 2010;38(9):5059-5071. |
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Reilly J, Melillo J, Cai Y, Kicklighter D, Gurgel A, Paltsev S, Cronin T, Sokolov A, Schlosser A. Using land to mitigate climate change:hitting the target, recognizing the trade-offs. Environmental Science & Technology 2012;46(11):5672-5679. |
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Saari RK, Selin NE, Rausch S, Thompson TM. A self-consistent method to assess air quality co-benefits from US climate policies. Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association 2015;65(1):74-89. |
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Saari RK, Thompson TM, Selin NE. Human health and economic impacts of ozone reductions by income group. Environmental Science & Technology 2017;51(4):1953-1961. |
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Schlosser CA, Strzepek K, Gao X, Fant C, Blanc E, Paltsev S, Jacoby H, Reilly J, Gueneau A. The future of global water stress: an integrated assessment. Earth’s Future 2014;2(8):341-361. |
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Strzepek K, Schlosser A, Gueneau A, Gao X, Blanc E, Fant C, Rasheed B, Jacoby HD. Modeling water resource systems within the framework of the MIT Integrated Global System Model: IGSM-WRS. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 2013;5(3):638-653. |
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Thompson TM, Selin NE. Influence of air quality model resolution on uncertainty associated with health impacts. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2012;12(20):9753-9762. |
R834279 (2012) R834279 (2013) R834279 (Final) |
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Thompson TM, Saari RK, Selin NE. Air quality resolution for health impacts assessment:influence of regional characteristics. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2014;14(2):969-978. |
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Thompson TM, Rausch S, Saari RK, Selin NE. A systems approach to evaluating the air quality co-benefits of US carbon policies. Nature Climate Change 2014;4(10):917-923. |
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Thompson TM, Rausch S, Saari RK, Selin NE. Air quality co-benefits of subnational carbon policies. Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association 2016;66(10):988-1002. |
R834279 (Final) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
ozone, particulates, health effects, Northeast, benefit-cost, integrated assessment, climate change
, RFA, Air, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Atmosphere
Relevant Websites:
http://globalchange.mit.edu; http://mit.edu/selingroup
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.
Project Research Results
- 2013 Progress Report
- 2012 Progress Report
- 2011 Progress Report
- 2010 Progress Report
- Original Abstract
14 journal articles for this project