Grantee Research Project Results
1998 Progress Report: Integrated Ecological Economic Modeling and Valuation of Watersheds
EPA Grant Number: R824766Title: Integrated Ecological Economic Modeling and Valuation of Watersheds
Investigators: Costanza, Robert , Binder, Claudia , Bockstael, Nancy
Current Investigators: Costanza, Robert , Voinov, Alexey , Villa, Ferdinando , Voinov, Helena , Wainger, Lisa , Boumans, Roelof , Maxwell, Thomas
Institution: University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: November 1, 1995 through November 1, 1998
Project Period Covered by this Report: November 1, 1997 through November 1, 1998
Project Amount: $1,000,000
RFA: Water and Watersheds (1995) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Watersheds , Water
Objective:
The objective of this modeling effort is to evaluate regional landscape change, including human driving forces and the complex interactions between ecological and economic systems. The Patuxent Landscape Model (PLM) is designed to serve as a tool in a systematic analysis of the interactions among physical and biological dynamics of the watershed, conditioned on socioeconomic behavior in the region. Our major objectives for this year included:- Final calibration of PLM and its submodules;
- Development of scenarios of economic change and management practices;
- Testing of the model's ability to analyze scenarios and produce results meaningful to the policy and decisionmaking community; and
- Further development of computer software to support process-based spatial modeling.
Progress Summary:
The PLM is based on a process-based unit model that calculates stocks and flows for hydrology, nutrients, plants, and animal populations within each 1 km2 cell of the 2,500 km2 Patuxent River watershed. Cells are linked in a spatial model to simulate water and material fluxes across the landscape at several scales. A companion economic model estimates land development patterns and effects on human decisions from site characteristics, ecosystem properties, and regulatory paradigms. Dynamic models examine the numerous competing effects of human and naturally imposed variation to suggest potential long-term impacts to system function and resiliency.During this year, we have refined the model performance and focused on applications of the model to particular case studies and scenarios, as follows:
- The hydrology model has been compared to the EPA standard Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) approach and showed at least as good performance on all subwatersheds of the Patuxent area and superior performance on several of them. The "cellular" approach also appears to extrapolate better to new subwatersheds than HSPF without recalibration. For latest model output and details, see our Web site at http://kabir.cbl.umces.edu/PLM.
- The modular approach has been applied to the unit ecological model. The complex general unit model has been split into a series of modules that can be developed and analyzed both as stand-alone submodels and as an integrated general model. This has enhanced our ability to calibrate and understand the model performance.
- A multiscale approach has been used to work out scenarios for model analysis. The small Hunting Creek subwatershed was chosen as a case study to test out the procedure of scenario development and analysis. The goal was to compare different buildout alternatives being considered by Calvert County planning officials in terms of water quality in Hunting Creek. Nitrogen concentrations in the estuary zone of Hunting Creek were chosen as an indicator of water quality, and they were compared under the three alternative buildout projections. A number of additional scenarios (best management practices, crop rotation, alternative septic designs, etc.) have been included in the analysis. The model proved to be a useful tool to analyze trends of ecological impacts from various economic and management practices.
- Scenarios have been formulated at the full watershed scale to analyze:
- Clustered versus sprawl development;
- Implementation of agricultural and urban nutrient/water management practices;
- Development with varying proportions of forest, agricultural, and urban uses; and
- Other zoning, infrastructure, and tax policy decisions.
- A deer population model was developed to assess economic and ecological impacts.
Development of computer software to facilitate model calibration and applications was an important component of the project, as described below:
- A Java-based interface replaced other interfaces previously developed. It became an integrated part of the software environment (Spatial Modeling Environment) used to put the unit models within a spatial context and link georeferenced and other databases to the model. The Java-based interface offers potential of Web-based modeling (pending development of appropriate Web browsers) when direct access to the model can be allowed over the Web (http://kabir.cbl.umces.edu/SME3).
Our interaction with management and watershed-user community was conducted by means of the Internet, workshops, and presentations. In particular:
- Our Web site was constantly updated to present model evolution and to provide a means for Web-based watershed-level decision making and management.
- Presentations were made to the Calvert County Board of Commissioners, Planning and Zoning Commission, and Environmental Commission.
- The project was linked to the Maryland Virtual High School (MVHS) program offering case studies and spatial modeling experience to high school students.
Future Activities:
We are finalizing the project and reformulating the results and methods developed to transfer to the next phase of our work under the auspice of the Water and Watersheds program. The Patuxent Landscape Model is to become a crucial part of our future work on the project: "Whole watershed health and restoration: applying the Patuxent and Gwynns Falls landscape models to designing a sustainable balance between humans and the rest of nature."Journal Articles on this Report : 16 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
| Other project views: | All 79 publications | 28 publications in selected types | All 16 journal articles |
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Bell KP, Bockstael NE. Applying the generalized-moments estimation approach to spatial problems involving microlevel data. Review of Economics and Statistics 2000;82(1):72-82. |
R824766 (1998) R824766 (Final) |
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Costanza R, Voinov A, Boumans R, Maxwell T, Villa F, Wainger L, Voinov H. Integrated ecological economic modeling of the Patuxent River watershed, Maryland. Ecological Monographs 2002;72(2):203-231. |
R824766 (1998) R824766 (Final) R825792 (1999) R825792 (2000) R825792 (Final) R827169 (Final) |
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Costanza R. Ecological economics: reintegrating the study of humans and nature. Ecological Applications 1996;6(4):978-990. |
R824766 (1998) R824766 (Final) |
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Costanza R, Ruth M. Using dynamic modeling to scope environmental problems and build consensus. Environmental Management 1998;22(2):183-195. |
R824766 (1998) R824766 (Final) |
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Geoghegan J, Wainger LA, Bockstael NE. Spatial landscape indices in a hedonic framework: an ecological economics analysis using GIS. Ecological Economics 1997;23(3):251-264. |
R824766 (1998) R824766 (Final) R825309 (1997) R825309 (Final) |
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Maxwell T, Costanza R. An open geographic modeling environment. Simulation 1997;68(3):175-185. |
R824766 (1998) R824766 (Final) |
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Maxwell T, Costanza R. A language for modular spatio-temporal simulation. Ecological Modelling 1997;103(2-3):105-113. |
R824766 (1998) R824766 (Final) |
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Villa F, Ceroni M, Mazza A. A GIS-based method for multi-objective evaluation of park vegetation. Landscape and Urban Planning 1996;35(4):203-212. |
R824766 (1998) R824766 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
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Voinov A, Fitz C, Costanza R. Landscape model provides management tool. GIS World 1997;10(3):48-50. |
R824766 (1998) R824766 (Final) |
not available |
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Voinov AA. Paradoxes of sustainability. Zhurnal Obshchei Biologii (Journal of General Biology) 1998;59(2):209-218. |
R824766 (1998) R824766 (Final) |
not available |
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Voinov AA, Fitz HC, Costanza R. Surface water flow in landscape models: I. Everglades case study. Ecological Modelling 1998;108(1-3):131-144. |
R824766 (1998) R824766 (Final) |
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Voinov A, Costanza R. Surface water hydrology in integrated watershed models: Patuxent case study. In: Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, April 28, 1998. |
R824766 (1998) |
not available |
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Voinov A, Costanza R. Watershed management and the Web. Journal of Environmental Management 1999;56(4):231-245. |
R824766 (1998) R824766 (Final) R827169 (Final) |
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Voinov AA, Voinov H, Costanza R. Surface water flow in landscape models: 2. Patuxent watershed case study. Ecological Modelling 1999;119(2-3):211-230. |
R824766 (1998) R824766 (Final) R827169 (Final) |
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Voinov A, Costanza R, Wainger L, Boumans R, Villa F, Maxwell T, Voinov H. Patuxent landscape model: integrated ecological economic modeling of a watershed. Environmental Modelling & Software 1999;14(5):473-491. |
R824766 (1998) R824766 (Final) R825792 (1999) R825792 (2000) R825792 (Final) R827169 (Final) |
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Voinov A, Fitz C, Boumans R, Costanza R. Modular ecosystem modeling. Environmental Modelling & Software 2004;19(3):285-304. |
R824766 (1998) R824766 (Final) R827169 (Final) |
Exit Exit Exit |
Supplemental Keywords:
landscape simulation modeling, ecological economics, ecology, economics, Patuxent River watershed, Maryland, MD., RFA, Scientific Discipline, Economic, Social, & Behavioral Science Research Program, Water, Geographic Area, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Water & Watershed, Ecology, Hydrology, Ecosystem/Assessment/Indicators, Ecosystem Protection, exploratory research environmental biology, Chemical Mixtures - Environmental Exposure & Risk, State, Ecological Effects - Environmental Exposure & Risk, Economics, Ecological Effects - Human Health, decision-making, Watersheds, Ecological Indicators, Economics & Decision Making, EPA Region, Social Science, risk assessment, ecosystem valuation, remote sensing, valuation of watersheds, biodiversity option values, human activities, model aggregation methods, watershed, valuation, Region 3, Maryland (MD), aquatic ecosystems, water quality, regional scale model, land useRelevant Websites:
http://kabir.cbl.umces.edu/PLM 
http://kabir.cbl.umces.edu/SME3
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.