Grantee Research Project Results
Final Report: Ecosystem Valuation Policy Applications for the Patuxent Watershed Ecological-Economics Model
EPA Grant Number: R825309Title: Ecosystem Valuation Policy Applications for the Patuxent Watershed Ecological-Economics Model
Investigators: Geoghegan, Jacqueline
Institution: Clark University
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: January 1, 1997 through December 31, 1998
Project Amount: $104,685
RFA: Decision-Making and Valuation for Environmental Policy (1996) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Environmental Justice
Objective:
This grant has continued support for the Patuxent Watershed (Maryland) economics land use modeling project based at the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics at the University of Maryland. This large project is unique in that it is the most spatially explicit and disaggregated model of individual human behavior that currently merges spatial data and geographic information systems (GIS) in economic modeling. Specifically, this grant funds research to further develop spatially-explicit economic models of land values and human-induced land use change, and to use these models for an assortment of policy analyses. This contribution has been a number of significant items, through data collection and creation, conceptualization, and development of pertinent policy questions, as well as through completion of analyses. During the course of this grant, questions concerning sprawl have become one of the most important and also a contentious issue in land use policy in the United States. In response to this interest, the major portion of this research has focused on developing models of residential sprawl development and creation of the dataset necessary for the analysis. We have focused specifically on the development of a unique database to create dynamic spatially explicit land use change models to model the interactions between land use change decisions and zoning regulations and other land use controls.
This project has consisted of developing economic land value and land use change models of the counties of the Patuxent Watershed in southern Maryland, one of the nine river basins of the Chesapeake Watershed and covering approximately 1,000 square miles. This area includes seven counties: Anne Arundel, Calvert, Charles, Montgomery, Howard, Prince George's, and St. Mary's. The intent of the research has been to increase our understanding of, and our ability to model at a spatially disaggregate individual parcel level, the spatial configuration and dynamic evolution of the urban fringe landscape. With this understanding, the effect of differing regulatory environments will be more predictable, leading to improved methods for valuing landscape configurations and a greater ability to assess the benefits and costs of regulatory consequences.
Summary/Accomplishments (Outputs/Outcomes):
A number of elements from our initial modeling results are interesting and have potential policy ramifications. First, we find that the nature and pattern of the land uses surrounding a parcel have an influence on the price, implying that people care very much about the patterns of landscape around them. This supports the belief that there can be severe externalities in land use and in land use patterns. A second result of some significance is that the marginal value of increasing lot size appears to decline rather rapidly, implying that minimum lot size zoning has a considerable effect on the value of an undeveloped parcel of land. A third result is the strong influence distance to employment centers (and therefore roads) has on property values. Finally, we note that the effect on price of many features of the landscape is different depending on whether the parcel is in a highly developed area, a suburban area, or a relatively rural area.
We also have found that the value of a parcel in residential land use is affected by the pattern of surrounding land uses, not just specific features of point locations. Beyond the traditional explanatory variables described above, we also have created variables of measures of open space, diversity, and fragmentation of land uses around each observation. Estimation has demonstrated that these additional GIS-created variables, measured at different scales, can add explanatory power to a hedonic model of housing values. Initial results from other ongoing research have shown that individuals are willing to pay higher residential prices to be nearby open space, and are willing to pay an even higher premium to be near permanent open space.
In other related research, we have developed a theoretical model of pollution in a spatial Hotelling model, and tested the implications that areas closer to the border of a land use planning area are more likely to be zoned "dirty" (i.e., industrial). The results of the theoretical model show that the pollution cost is minimized when the firm locates close to or at the downstream end of the market irrespective of the shape of the consumer distribution or the value of any other parameters. The total social cost in the presence of the externality can be minimized by locating the polluting firm close to the downstream end of the market for certain combinations of the parameters. We test this hypothesis concerning the spatial location of industrial zoning using a probit model for seven counties of the Patuxent Watershed. We find that the locations of industrial zones are more likely, relative to other "clean" (i.e., residential) zones, to be nearer the county boundary, supporting our theoretical hypothesis. We also find that as transportation costs increase, parcel being near waterfront decreases the probability of an area being zoned industrial, as does an increase in population density.
Journal Articles on this Report : 4 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 34 publications | 8 publications in selected types | All 4 journal articles |
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Type | Citation | ||
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Geoghegan J, Wainger LA, Bockstael NE. Spatial landscape indices in a hedonic framework: an ecological economics analysis using GIS. Ecological Economics 1997;23(3):251-264. |
R825309 (1997) R825309 (Final) R824766 (1998) R824766 (Final) |
Exit Exit Exit |
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Irwin EG, Geoghegan J. Theory, data, methods: developing spatially explicit economic models of land use change. Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment 2001;85(1-3):7-23. |
R825309 (Final) |
Exit Exit Exit |
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Leggett CG, Bockstael NE. Evidence of the effects of water quality on residential land prices. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 2000;39(2):121-144. |
R825309 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
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Nickerson CJ, Lynch L. The effect of farmland preservation programs on farmland prices. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 2001;83(2):341-351. |
R825309 (Final) |
Exit |
Supplemental Keywords:
Patuxent watershed, Maryland, MD, hazard/duration models, hedonic models, spatial econometrics, residential development, land use change, open space., RFA, Economic, Social, & Behavioral Science Research Program, Scientific Discipline, Geographic Area, Water, Water & Watershed, State, Economics, decision-making, Ecology and Ecosystems, Watersheds, Economics & Decision Making, ecosystem valuation, policy analysis, public resources, biodiversity option values, valuation, decision analysis, economic benefits, environmental assets, valuing environmental quality, spatial econometrics, cost benefit, economic incentives, environmental values, preference formation, riparian forests, cost/benefit analysis, environmental policy, landscape ecology, Maryland (MD), aquatic ecosystems, hedonic models, public values, public policy, Patuxent Watershed, cost effectivenessRelevant Websites:
http://www.clarku.edu/~jgeogheg/jmg_page.html
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.