Grantee Research Project Results
2017 Progress Report: Particulate Matter Prediction and Source Attribution for U.S. Air Quality Management in a Changing World
EPA Grant Number: R835876Title: Particulate Matter Prediction and Source Attribution for U.S. Air Quality Management in a Changing World
Investigators: Liang, Xin-Zhong , Wuebbles, Donald J. , Dickerson, Russell R. , Sun, Chao , He, Hao , Sanyal, Swarnali , Tao, Zhining
Current Investigators: Liang, Xin-Zhong , Wuebbles, Donald J. , Dickerson, Russell R. , Tao, Zhining , He, Hao
Institution: University of Maryland - College Park , Goddard Earth Sciences Technology & Research , University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
Current Institution: University of Maryland - College Park , University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign , Goddard Earth Sciences Technology & Research
EPA Project Officer: Keating, Terry
Project Period: April 1, 2016 through March 31, 2019 (Extended to March 31, 2021)
Project Period Covered by this Report: April 1, 2017 through March 31,2018
Project Amount: $790,000
RFA: Particulate Matter and Related Pollutants in a Changing World (2014) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air , Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration , Climate Change
Objective:
The objectives of this study are to better understand how global changes in climate and emissions will affect U.S. pollution, focusing on particulate matter and ozone, project their future trends, quantify key source attributions, and thus provide actionable information for U.S. environmental planners and decision makers to design effective dynamic management strategies, including local controls; domestic regulations; and international policies to sustain air quality improvements in a changing world.
Progress Summary:
- We completed CWRF integration driven by the ECMWF ERI reanalysis. We analyzed the results and found that CWRF substantially improves the reliability of U.S. climate simulations, especially in extreme precipitation, and that cumulus schemes are the key factor in extreme precipitation simulations. We finished CWRF downscaling of U.S. climate driven by CESM data, and optimized the physics configuration. Preliminary results show that CWRF’s precipitation fields have been improved significantly, especially for summer.
- We completed global CAM-Chem simulations driven by NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA2) reanalysis data. We also have completed Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) runs. Analysis of the past climate and emission changes indicate an increasing trend over South Asia and globally but a decreasing trend over Europe and the United States, whereas O3 shows an increasing trend globally and in different regions.
- We created the emissions modeling system for this project using 2014 as our base year. We compiled and processed anthropogenic emissions from the National Emission Inventory 2011 (NEI2011) with adjustments based on satellite observations, AQS measurements, and CESM data. We used Global Fire Emissions Database version 4 (GFEDv4) emissions to create wildfire emissions and generate inputs of online biogenic emissions calculation on BELD3 landuse/landcover data, through various programs including SMOKEv3.7. We developed a program to merge all aforementioned emissions into a single dataset ready for CMAQ to use, in which the chemical species suitable for the selected chemical/aerosol mechanisms were put into the right time and CMAQ grids.
- We developed and tested the coupled CWRF-CMAQ system, and finished CMAQ simulations of present-day U.S. air quality from 1990 to 2016 driven by ERI reanalysis. CMAQ outputs agreed well with EPA AQS observations. For the climate study, we also conducted long-term simulations of U.S. air quality driven by CESM 1980-2005 climate states. The ERI driven CMAQ simulations were used to investigate the trends in U.S. air quality in the past decades, while the CESM driven case will serve as the baseline for studying changes in projected future air quality.
Future Activities:
As outlined in our original proposal, the next year of the project will focus on the following tasks:
- Prepare consistent regional and global emission projections for 2050 under 2 RCP scenarios
- Conduct sensitivity experiments to study uncertainty due to emissions/climate projection
- Conduct projection experiments to study impacts of global climate and emission changes
- Diagnose outputs to quantify relative roles of global climate and emission changes
- Couple CAM5-Chem with CMAQ-CWRF to establish a dynamic prediction system.
Journal Articles on this Report : 2 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
| Other project views: | All 8 publications | 6 publications in selected types | All 6 journal articles |
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He H, Liang X-Z, Lei H, Wuebbles DJ. Future U.S. ozone projections dependence on regional emissions, climate change, long-range transport and differences in modeling design. Atmospheric Environment 2016;128:124-133. |
R835876 (2016) R835876 (2017) R835876 (2018) R835876 (2019) R835876 (Final) R833373 (Final) |
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He H, Liang X-Z, Wuebbles DJ. Effects of emissions change, climate change and long-range transport on regional modeling of future U.S. particulate matter pollution and speciation. Atmospheric Environment 2018;179:166-176. |
R835876 (2017) R835876 (2018) R835876 (2019) R835876 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
Supplemental Keywords:
Air quality, modeling, PM2.5, ozone, climate change, emissions change, chemical transportProgress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.