Grantee Research Project Results
2018 Progress Report: Particulate Matter Prediction and Source Attribution for U.S. Air Quality Management in a Changing World
EPA Grant Number: R835876Title: Particulate Matter Prediction and Source Attribution for U.S. Air Quality Management in a Changing World
Investigators: Liang, Xin-Zhong , Wuebbles, Donald J. , Dickerson, Russell R. , He, Hao , Tao, Zhining
Current Investigators: Liang, Xin-Zhong , Wuebbles, Donald J. , Dickerson, Russell R. , Tao, Zhining , He, Hao
Institution: University of Maryland - College Park , Goddard Earth Sciences Technology & Research , University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
Current Institution: University of Maryland - College Park , University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign , Goddard Earth Sciences Technology & Research
EPA Project Officer: Keating, Terry
Project Period: April 1, 2016 through March 31, 2019 (Extended to March 31, 2021)
Project Period Covered by this Report: April 1, 2018 through March 31,2019
Project Amount: $790,000
RFA: Particulate Matter and Related Pollutants in a Changing World (2014) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration , Air , Climate Change
Objective:
The objectives of this study are to better understand how global changes in climate and emissions will affect U.S. pollution, focusing on particulate matter and ozone, project their future trends, quantify key source attributions, and thus provide actionable information for U.S. environmental planners and decision makers to design effective dynamic management strategies, including local controls, domestic regulations and international policies, to sustain air quality improvements in a changing world.
Progress Summary:
- We completed CWRF integration driven by the NCAR CESM projections for 2036-2051 under two IPCC scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Hourly CWRF outputs were processed to drive CMAQ experiments for future U.S. air quality. Major meteorological fields such as surface temperature and precipitation were saved and post-processed for further study to investigate the monthly, seasonal, and interannual variabilities of future climate under those two IPCC scenarios.
- We completed global climate-chemistry model runs using CESM1.1 with CAM-Chem for future air quality and providing inputs for the regional CMAQ modeling studies. We analyzed the CAM-Chem outputs and focused on the trend of ozone and particulate matter exceedances events globally across all season, with emphasis on the United States, China, and India. The change in frequency and seasonality of the exceedance events in the future can then further be used to understand the changing seasonality of epidemiological impact of exposure to these pollutants.
- We investigated the long-term ozone pollution trend and the sensitivity of ozone production from 1990 to 2015. We analyzed the seasonal variations and diurnal cycle of EPA observations and found different changes of surface ozone at different hours during the past two decades. CMAQ simulations reproduced these changes in long-term ozone pollution and confirmed that the reduced NO-O3 titration could lead to increase of surface ozone. We further studied the chemical regimes of ozone photochemical production and found large cities in the United States have transited from VOC-sensitive environment to NOx-sensitive regime.
- We projected the emissions of the North America for future years (2036-2061) based on projections of the 2014 emissions to two future scenarios, IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Four sensitivity CMAQ experiments were carried out, RCP4.5 case (with future RCP4.5 emissions and climate states), RCP8.5 case (with RCP8.5 emissions and climate states), RCP4.5 climate only case (with present-day emissions and future RCP4.5 climate states), and RCP8.5 climate only case (with present-day emissions and future RCP8.5 climate states). The analysis of these modeling results will separate the impacts from emissions change and effects from climate change on the future U.S. air quality.
Future Activities:
As outlined in our original proposal, we have finished all the tasks proposed and will continue working on data analysis and paper writing.
Journal Articles on this Report : 2 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
| Other project views: | All 8 publications | 6 publications in selected types | All 6 journal articles |
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He H, Liang X-Z, Lei H, Wuebbles DJ. Future U.S. ozone projections dependence on regional emissions, climate change, long-range transport and differences in modeling design. Atmospheric Environment 2016;128:124-133. |
R835876 (2016) R835876 (2017) R835876 (2018) R835876 (2019) R835876 (Final) R833373 (Final) |
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He H, Liang X-Z, Wuebbles DJ. Effects of emissions change, climate change and long-range transport on regional modeling of future U.S. particulate matter pollution and speciation. Atmospheric Environment 2018;179:166-176. |
R835876 (2017) R835876 (2018) R835876 (2019) R835876 (Final) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
Air Quality, Global Change, Wildfire EmissionsProgress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.