Grantee Research Project Results
Final Report: Prediction of Nonlinear Climate Variations Impacts on Eutrophication and Ecosystem Processes and Evaluation of Adaptation Measures in Urban and Urbanizing Watersheds
EPA Grant Number: R835866Title: Prediction of Nonlinear Climate Variations Impacts on Eutrophication and Ecosystem Processes and Evaluation of Adaptation Measures in Urban and Urbanizing Watersheds
Investigators: Barber, Michael , Goel, Ramesh , Burian, Steven , Hinners, Sarah , Clark, Brett
Institution: University of Utah
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: September 1, 2015 through August 31, 2018 (Extended to August 31, 2021)
Project Amount: $1,250,000
RFA: National Priorities: Systems-Based Strategies to Improve The Nation’s Ability to Plan And Respond to Water Scarcity and Drought Due to Climate Change (2014) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Water
Objective:
The Jordan River (shown in Figure 1) experiences many of the water quality concerns shared by urban streams throughout the western United States including problems with total dissolved solids, temperature, E Coli, and dissolved oxygen (DO). Droughts, changes in snow melt timing, and extreme events induced by climate change and the implications of land use changes due to population and economic growth are not explicitly factored into the solution schemes. In other words, some of the most important natural and human dimensions influencing these ecosystems are missing. Thus, proposed solutions are likely to be inadequate with respect to the magnitudes of the problem and they often pit upstream users against downstream interests rather than address the challenges in an integrated fashion. To meet U.S. EPA program goals, this project was specifically designed to investigate the direct and secondary interrelated impacts of climate change (including extreme events) on surface and groundwater water quality and availability in the Jordan River watershed for the protection of human and ecosystem health, and develop innovative, cost-effective management options that address these impacts. The following specific objectives were addressed:
- Develop a dynamic water quantity/quality model of Jordan River watershed using SWMM, DHSVM, EFDC, and WASP
- Link the process-based model of the Jordan River watershed to a system dynamics model of the integrated urban water system for the Salt Lake City metropolitan area
- Integrate each of the four AR5 climate projections into prediction of 2050 water quantity and quality baseline scenarios
- Conduct field and laboratory analysis to parameterize kinetic coefficients and determine non-linear responses under climate scenarios
- Examine land use planning implications including scale-related phenomenon related to headwater versus downstream economic, social, and ecosystem constraints
- Hold participatory stakeholder workshops to develop future scenarios related to conservation, reuse, land use changes due to population, BMP/LID implementation, wildfire disturbances, and water management
- Use models to examine impacts of scenarios and levels of investments needed to achieve a sustainable environment for economic and ecosystem protection
- Create a framework for maximizing value of BMP placement through off-site investment to achieve water quantity and quality goals
- Incorporate findings into classroom instruction that help prepare the future workforce in thinking holistically to solve tomorrow’s challenges.
Figure 1. Study Watershed Area
Summary/Accomplishments (Outputs/Outcomes):
Objectives 1 and 2: Process Models for Utah Lake and Jordan River
Several of the primary project objectives were related to creating a process-based modeling framework through developing a dynamic water quantity/quality model of Jordan River watershed using SWMM, DHSVM, EFDC, and WASP and linking the process-based model of the Jordan River watershed to a system dynamics model of the integrated urban water system for the Salt Lake City metropolitan area. Our goal was to use publicly available models so that regional water quality practitioners and state agencies could have open access to the approach for future work on total maximum daily load (TMDL) studies. Tasks for model development were successfully completed and included data accumulation from a number of agencies, facilities, and researchers as well as review of scientific literature. As part of this accumulation, data that have been obtained were stored using a quality control and formatting process, and are currently organized within file databases and GIS databases. This process of data review has aided in identifying additional data needs (such as higher frequency measurements of water quality data near wastewater outflows), and the appropriate agencies were contacted in order to obtain these data. The calibrated base Jordan River model was transferred to the Utah Division of Water Quality (DWQ) for use in future TMDL-related studies.
Objective 3: Integration of Climate Scenarios
Climate data from the global climate models were used to examine future conditions in both developed and undeveloped portions of the watershed. For RCP 4.5 and 8.5 projections we used statistically downscaled daily climate data available through the Multiadaptive-Constructed Analogs (MACA) from the University of Idaho. For RCP 6.0, we used dynamically downscaled hourly climate data developed by the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Utah. Hence, the Utah Lake and Jordan River WASP models simulated all three widely accepted climate projections (RCP 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5). The combined hydrology and water quality aspects predicted considerably lower summer flows and the need for additional nutrient control to combat WQ issues.
Objective 4: Field and Laboratory Measurements of Kinetic Coefficients
Samples collected from Utah Lake were sent for sequencing and subjected to metagenomic and transcriptomic analysis. Studies of cyanotoxin impacts on ammonia-oxidizing bacteria and community successions of cyanobacteria in Utah Lake were completed. Two peer-reviewed journal papers were published as a result. Some key findings were:
- Filamentous Aphanizomenon and Dolichospermum dominated during N scarcity.
- Nitrite/nitrate reductase in early summer and the activation of N-fixation occurred simultaneously.
- The phosphorus metabolism detected a trend to initiate a nutrient starvation alert.
- Microcystin-LR negatively affected nitrification rates even at 0.25 μg/L concentration.
- Nitrifying bacteria partially recovered their activity once the toxin stress was withdrawn.
- The ammonia monooxygenase gene was suppressed in the presence of MC-LR.
Objective 5: Examination of Land Use Planning Decisions
Part of the project was to developed land use maps for the urbanized and urbanizing areas of the watershed in a format that translates to the SWMM portion of the model. During the course of the project, the Wasatch Front Regional Council, had completed their current modeling process and generated a “preferred scenario” with all of the planning bodies in the five county region (municipalities, counties, and state-level agencies), an alternative to the business-as-usual scenario was adopted as the guide for land use and transportation planning activities. WFRC’s scenario model, called REMM (the Real Estate Market Model), produces spatial model predictions that they have shared with us to form the basis of an alternative land use scenario. We have been working with these data to produce a useable data input to our water quality model, so that the business-as-usual model may be compared with the preferred scenario. More specifically, planning in our region attempts to rein in spatial growth and expensive transportation infrastructure projects by concentrating growth in “centers.” The efficacy of this strategy with regard to water quality is a question we were able to test.
Objective 6: Development of Future Scenarios via Public Involvement
Throughout the project, the team studied the water quality-related stakeholder “landscape” in the Jordan River watershed. Unfortunately, COVID-19 restricted much of our ability to have meaningful public environment. In lieu of direct public input, GoldSim and SWMM models were used to examine ranges in pollutant loads under a rather restrictive assumption on BMP type and adopted the business-as-usual and preferred land use scenarios as bookends for the research. We examined issues related to the decision-making processes from a framework that considers three basic elements of the system: knowledge (what do we know/not know about the system?); options (what management options, or “levers” are available within ecological, political, and economic constraints?); and connections (relationships among the stakeholders and within broader networks). By exploring these dimensions of the social-ecological system of the watershed, we can identify and tailor key questions that our model will need to address. In lieu of direct public input, we used the GoldSim and SWMM models to examine ranges in pollutant loads under a rather restrictive assumption on BMP type and adopted the business-as-usual and preferred land use scenarios as bookends for the research.
We have also been involved in UDWQ Steering Committee for Utah Lake and it is likely that future discussions on development scenarios will still be used. UDWQ is also using our Jordan River model as a basis for future TMDL work. Regarding the Jordan River Valley, we undertook a situation assessment that consisted of interviews with members of the UDWQ Technical Advisory Committee, as well as other stakeholders suggested as important individuals concerned and/or knowledgeable about water quality issues associated with the Jordan River by our interviewees. We completed 31 interviews ranging in length from 30 minutes to over 3.5 hours. The interviews were transcribed during the summer and fall 2018.
Water Quality Trading
Water quality trading scenarios were also performed using the Jordan River WASP model. We were able to demonstrate that effective trades between different parts of the watershed (i.e., Utah Lake and the Jordan River) could be done. The feasibility of conducting these trades needs a more robust discussion among the stakeholders as funds would transfer across county and municipal lines. Nutrient issues surrounding nutrient cycling in Utah Lake could potentially complicate the trading process. Furthermore, the public’s willingness or unwillingness to participate in uncertain markets was not able to be evaluated.
Forest Fire Land Management Decisions
Mountainous, forested watersheds are crucial sources of water and have unique characteristics making them more vulnerable to extreme events like wildfire under future climate change scenarios. The scientific community agrees that present global warming trends may be allied with increasing forest fire size, frequency, and severity across the western United States. The objective of this portion of the study was to determine how changes in location and severity of wildfire under future climate change scenarios impact the variations in peak runoff of snowmelt-dominated mountainous watersheds. This was completed by applying a characteristic wildfire spatial extent to low, medium, and high elevations portions within the watershed and varying the relative intensity of the fire. This study estimates the changes in peak discharge hydrograph of the mountainous watersheds due to the change in location and severity of wildfire under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for two different timelines. It was shown that changes in wildfire locations combined with the severity of wildfires can significantly affect the timing and volume of peak runoff and subsequently decrease the low flows. Specifically, mid-elevation wildfires produced the most pronounced changes. Analyses indicated this was a result of changes in snow and temperature distributions and snowmelt characteristics being most obvious at this elevation. This has major implications for both forest and water management practices. Our findings suggest that mid-elevation fire suppression and firefighting activities should be prioritized. However, this may be difficult to implement politically. Converting this finding into actionable plans will require considerable public participation that we were not able to complete in this project.
Objective 7: Evaluation of Alternative and Complementary Scenarios
This aspect of the project was coordinated with the Jordan River Blueprint Update which is a is a decade-old vision document for the Jordan River corridor. Its creation led to the creation of the Jordan River Commission, which consists of representatives of jurisdictions (counties and municipalities) and other stakeholders and is charged with implementing the vision. Models developed under the grant were presented to the water working group, at the first working group meeting, and solicited feedback and input on our scenarios. The next step was for experts on water quality, natural habitats, recreation, transportation, real estate and other topics to use the survey as a guide as a new blueprint was written. One of the co-PIs (Dr. Sarah Hinners) also continues to serve as a consultant on the team. COVID significantly impacted the scope of this outcome as the timing meant this was supposed to occur in 2021. There were two publications employing the Jordan River and Utah Lake WASP modeling work. The papers and presentation section of this report documents the pertinent publications and conference papers pertinent to the Jordan River and Utah Lake WASP modeling exercise.
One alternative/complimentary scenario that was investigated in this project involved the potential application of tertiary wastewater treatment. In this alternative scenario, all of the wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) were assumed to apply additional removal on distinct nutrients discharged into Utah Lake and the Jordan River. Another scenario involved improving water quality trading, which appears as an additional alternative/complimentary scenario to the Jordan River and Utah Lake WASP simulations. Last, an EPA Project Story Map (provided at the bottom of this webpage) has been developed to help convey the essence of the WASP work activities to the general public.
Objective 8: BMP/LID Prioritization Model Framework for Supply and Protection
Under this objective, we demonstrated the utility of Green Infrastructure (GI) in reducing urban stormwater loading into the system under future development conditions. Under this project, GI was represented by bio-retention units because they provide a general storage-release system and are one of the primary GI approaches that have been used in Utah. The size of the LID unit was fixed at 4000 sq.ft. While this would seem like a reasonable area, more discussion is needed to determine if this would be acceptable and the impacts of greater stormwater retention scenarios. COVID-19 severely restricted our ability to hold open public forums so we were not able to evaluate the willingness of the communities to adopt BMPs in our study areas.
Objective 9: Development of Classroom Materials
A Surface Water Quality Modeling class was offered in Fall 2020 which included information from this project, students were able to build an unsteady Qual2kw model of the lower Jordan River where continued low dissolved oxygen problems exist. Feedback suggested the students appreciated the state-of-the-art modeling exercise that the project provided although it was a lot to digest in a semester.
References:
Peer Reviewed Papers:
Su, J.-Y., Goel, R., Burian, S.J., Hinners, S.J., Kochanski, A., Strong, C., & Barber, M.E. (2021). Water Quality Trading Framework with Uncertainty for River Systems due to Climate and Population Characteristics. Water, 13(13): 1738.
Hasan, M.M., Strong, C., Kochanski, A.K., Burian, S.J., & Barber, M.E. (2020). Validating Dynamically Downscaled Climate Projections for Mountainous Watersheds Using Historical Runoff Data Coupled with the Distributed Hydrologic Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM). Water, 12, 1389.
Li, H., Barber, M., Lu, J., & Goel, R. (2020). Microbial community successions and their dynamic functions during harmful cyanobacterial blooms in a freshwater lake. Water Research, 185, 116292.
Li, H., Hollstein, M., Podder, A., Gupta, V., Barber, M., & Goel, R. (2020). Cyanotoxin impact on microbial-mediated nitrogen transformations at the interface of sediment-water column in surface water bodies. Environmental Pollution, 266, 115283.
Li, H., Alsanea, A., Barber, M., & Goel, R. (2019). High-throughput DNA sequencing reveals the dominance of pico-and other filamentous cyanobacteria in an urban freshwater Lake. Science of the Total Environment, 661, 465-480.
Peer Reviewed Papers Submitted:
Hasan, M.M., Strong, C., Brooks, P.D., Burian, S.J., Barber, M.E. Quantifying Climate Change Impacts on Low Flows of Small High Mountain Watersheds. Journal of Hydrology, submitted under review.
Su, J-Y., von Stackelberg, N., Li, H., Goel, R., Barber, M.E. Water Quality Trading in Shallow Lake Systems under Climate-Induced Uncertainties. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, submitted under review.
Su, J.-Y., Goel, R., Burian, S.J., Hinners, S.J., Barber, M.E. Water Quality Trading Framework for Incorporating Ancillary Benefits. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, submitted under review.
Li, H., Bhattarai, B., Barber, M.E., Lu, J., Bhattacharjee, A.S., Goel, R. The role of Stringent Response system to support cyanobacterial and other bacterioplankton community during different stages of a cyanobacterial bloom. Nature Communications, in final preparation.
Other Journal Papers:
Su, J.-Y., Goel, R., Burian, S.J., Barber, M.E. (2021). Assessing Climate Change Linkages Related to Water Quality Trading Effectiveness for Incorporating Ancillary Benefits. International Journal of Environmental Impacts, 4(1): 77-89.
Hasan, M., Burian, S., Barber, M. (2020). Determining the Impacts of Wildfires on Peak Flood Flows in High Mountain Watersheds. International Journal of Environmental Impacts, 3(4), 339-351.
Su, J.-Y., Barber, M.E., & Mahler, R.L. (2019). Water Quality Trading: A Conceptual Framework to Incorporate Ancillary Benefits. International Journal of Sustainable Development and Planning, 14(4): 307-318.
Presentations:
Su, J.-Y. (2020). Utah Lake WASP Model Calibration Efforts and Findings. Oral Presentation, Utah Lake Water Quality Study (ULWQS) Science Panel Virtual Meeting, Salt Lake City, UT, September 2020.
Su, J.-Y., von Stackelberg, N., Hasan, M.M., Banerjee, D., & Imran, M. (2020). Modeling Framework for Assessing Water Quantity and Quality Impacts under Climate Change in a Semi-Arid, Mountainous, and Urbanized Watershed. Poster Presentation, Global Change and Sustainability Center (GCSC) Symposium, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, February 2020.
Hasan, M.M., & Barber, M.E. (2019). Estimating contribution of upstream watersheds in mountainous river systems during low flow conditions under climate change scenarios. AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, December 09-14, 2019.
Su, J.-Y., von Stackelberg, N., & Hasan, M.M. (2019). Modeling Framework for Assessing Water Quantity and Quality Impacts under Climate Change in a Semi-Arid Mountainous and Urbanized Watershed. Salt Lake Watershed Symposium, Salt Lake City, UT, Poster Presentation planned for November 2019.
Hasan, M.M., & Barber, M.E. (2019). Studying the influence of upstream mountainous watersheds on a river flow system under different climate change scenarios. AWRA Annual Conference, Salt Lake City, Utah, November 3-6, 2019.
Banerjee, D., Hinners, S.J., & Clark, B. (2019). Knowledge integration in water-quality decision making in the Jordan River watershed, Utah. International Symposium on Society & Resource Management, Oshkosh, Wisconsin.
Hasan, M.M., & Barber, M.E. (2019). Determining the responses of mountainous watersheds for water supply under future climate change scenarios. UCOWR/NIWR Annual Water Resources Conference, Snowbird, Utah, June 11-13, 2019.
Banerjee, D., Hinners, S.J., & Clark, B. (2019). Modeling stakeholder knowledge integration using fuzzy cognitive mapping: A collaborative planning approach in water quality decision-making for Utah Lake. Association of Collegiate Schools of Planning 2019 Conference, Greenville, SC.
Goel, R., & Li, H. (2019). Molecular Insight into a Fresh Water Lake Harmful Algal Blooms. AEESP Conference, May 14-16, 2019, Tempe, AZ.
Li, H., & Goel, R. (2019). Molecular method applied for the identification of microcystin-producing species in Utah Lake. 2019 WEAU annual conference, April 9-12, St. George, UT.
Hasan, M.M., & Barber, M.E. (2018). Validating statistically downscaled climate projections for mountainous watersheds using historic runoff data coupled with the Distributed Hydrologic Soil Vegetation Model. AGU Fall Meeting, Washington, DC, December 2018.
Hinners, S. (2018). Situation assessment of water quality issues in the Jordan River. Salt Lake County Watershed Symposium, November 14-15, 2018, West Valley City, UT.
Li, H., A. Alsanea, M. Barber, & R. Goel. (2018). Harmful Algal Blooms in Utah Lake: A Molecular Insight, Nov 14-15, The 2018 Salt Lake City Watershed Symposium. Salt Lake City, UT.
Su, J.-Y. (2018). Jordan River Water Quality Modeling: Applications and Simulations. Nov 14-15, The 2018 Salt Lake City Watershed Symposium, Salt Lake City, UT.
Banerjee, D., Hinners, S., Clark, B. (2018) Perceptions of a wicked problem: situation assessment of water quality issues in the Jordan River watershed. Associated Collegiate Schools of Planning Annual Conference (poster), October 24-27, Buffalo, NY.
Su, J.-Y. (2018). WASP Modeling for Utah Lake. Presentation to the Utah Lake Water Quality Study (ULWQS) Science Panel, Orem, UT.
Li, H., C. Hansen, N. Von Stackelberg, R. Goel, S. Burian, & M. Barber. (2018). UCOWR/NIWR Annual Water Resources Conference, June 26-28, Pittsburgh, PA.
Banerjee, D., Hansen, C., & Hinners, S.J. (2017). Integrated modeling framework for improved future management of the Utah Lake-Jordan River watershed. November 15-16, Salt Lake Watershed Symposium, Salt Lake City, UT.
Li, H., A. Alsanea, M. Barber & R. Goel. (2017). Identifying harmful algal blooms at Utah Lake via advanced molecular tools. November 15-16, Salt Lake Watershed Symposium, Salt Lake City, UT.
Reports:
Su, J.-Y., von Stackelberg, N. (2020). Utah Lake Hydrodynamic (EFDC) and Water Quality (WASP) Model Report. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT. Submitted to Division of Water Quality, Utah Department of Environmental Quality, Salt Lake City, UT. 187 pp.
Su, J.-Y. (2019). Jordan River Modeling through the Water Quality Assessment Simulation Program (WASP): Model Report. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT. Submitted to Division of Water Quality, Utah Department of Environmental Quality, Salt Lake City, UT. 208 pp. https://documents.deq.utah.gov/water-quality/watershed-protection/DWQ-2019-021341.pdf.
Su, J.-Y. (2019). Jordan River WASP Modeling Model Report. Calibration Report. Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT. Submitted to Division of Water Quality, Utah Department of Environmental Quality, Salt Lake City, UT.
Su, J.-Y., von Stackelberg, N. (2018). Quality Assurance Project Plan (QAPP) for the Utah Lake EFDC and WASP Modeling Effort. Division of Water Quality, Utah Department of Environmental Quality, Salt Lake City, UT.
Journal Articles on this Report : 2 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 27 publications | 11 publications in selected types | All 10 journal articles |
---|
Type | Citation | ||
---|---|---|---|
|
Hasan M, Strong C, Broioks P, Burian S, Barber M. Quantifying climate change impacts on low flows of small high mountain watersheds:A nonstationary approach. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES 2023;48(101463). |
R835866 (Final) |
Exit |
|
Li J, Burian S. Evaluating real-time control of stormwater drainage network and green stormwater infrastructure for enhancing flooding resilience under future rainfall projections. RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYLING 2023;198(107123) |
R835866 (Final) |
Exit |
Supplemental Keywords:
nutrients, sediment oxygen demand, integrated assessment, Conservation, reuse, socio-economic, public policyRelevant Websites:
The Future of the Jordan River & Utah Lake Exit
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.
Project Research Results
- 2020 Progress Report
- 2019 Progress Report
- 2018 Progress Report
- 2017 Progress Report
- 2016 Progress Report
- Original Abstract
10 journal articles for this project