"Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level."
– Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007b).

Graphic of the projected change in annual mean surface air temperature from the late 20th century (1971-2000 average) to the middle 21st century (2051-2060 average). More warming is projected over continents than oceans, and is largest at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

Projected change in annual mean surface air temperature from the late 20th century (1971-2000 average) to the middle 21st century (2051-2060 average). The change is in response to increasing greenhouse gases and aerosols based on a middle of the road estimate of future emissions. Warming is larger over continents than oceans, and is largest at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. These results are from the GFDL CM2.1 model but are consistent with a broad consensus of modeling results.

Source: NOAA, 2007

Larger view of graph.

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Climate Change 101:

How Is the Global Climate Changing?

Projected Global Temperature Changes

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that the average surface temperature of the Earth is likely to increase by 3.2 °F to 7.2 °F (1.8 °C to 4.0 °C) by the end of the 21st century, relative to 1980-1990 (IPCC, 2007c).

As seen in the slide’s graphic, warming is not predicted to be evenly distributed around the globe.

  • Land areas will warm more than oceans in part because of the ocean’s greater ability to store heat.
  • High latitudes will warm more than low latitudes in part because of positive feedback effects from melting ice.
  • Most of North America, all of Africa, Europe, northern and central Asia, and most of Central and South America are likely to warm more than the global average.
  • Projections suggest that the warming will be close to the global average in south Asia, Australia and New Zealand, and southern South America.
  • Warming will differ by season, with winters warming more than summers in most areas.

References: Exit EPA Disclaimer

IPCC. 2007b. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core writing team: Pachauri, R.K, and A. Reisinger (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, p. 30. accessed August 31, 2009.

IPCC. 2007c. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor, and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp. accessed August 31, 2009.

Graphic Reference:
NOAA. 2007. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Modeling Research Highlights.
www.gfdl.noaa.gov/research/climate/
highlights/PDF/GFDLhighlight_Vol1N6.pdf, accessed August 31, 2009.

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Section 9 of 50