Abstract |
The report defines a methodology for finding an optimal (most reasonable) staging plan for implementing a multibasin water resource system--a system that must meet, with an optimal level of shortages, prespecified but highly variable demands for water that increase over time--a system such as the proposed Texas Water System. The methodology explicitly evaluates the impact that stochastic variability of the meteorologic variables and uncertainty in the remaining variables have on determining which of an over-specified set of reservoirs and pump-canals should be constructed, how large each of the reservoirs and pump-canals should be at various points on the demand build-up curve, and how the resulting optimized system should be operated both during and after the period in which facilities are being added or increased in size, to minimize the present worth of their construction costs, expected operation costs, and expected penalty costs incurred for demands not met. The methodology is designed to analyze a problem on a monthly basis using historical or stochastic hydrologic input data sequences, a specified demand build-up period, and an economic life as identified by the user. (Author) |