Abstract |
For impact analysis in this study, a computerized econometric simulation model of the United States copper industry has been developed and used. The model is designed, estimated and programmed to simulate the industry's growth and evolution annually through 1987 under baseline conditions as well as under alternative policy scenarios. The model considers, within an interdependent framework, such variables as demand (paying attention to substitution from other materials such as aluminum), costs of production facing the producers, prices, investment and international trade. Costs of production are directly factored into the model through engineering cost functions so that technological developments as well as environmental factors affecting the industry can be readily assessed. The major focus is on the primary producers. The model provides a unified analytical framework capturing quantitatively the pertinent interrelationships, to deal effectively with the measurement of impacts since environmental regulations set into motion an essentially simultaneous (interdependent) adjustment process in supply (costs), demand, prices and other variables. |