Abstract |
In order to create a strategy for the development of climate scenarios for use in impact assessment, potential techniques of development were reviewed and the information needs of potential users assessed. Available techniques were assessed through literature reviews and consultations with scenario development experts. Techniques were divided into ten modules, groups of techniques with similar methodologies, input requirements and output formats. User needs were assessed in consultation with selected individuals who had experience in the use of scenarios. The major needs were revealed to be for general descriptive statistics of the major climatic elements, for information about climatic anomalies, notably drought, for statistics on the frequency and probability of events exceeding particular thresholds, and for general information about storminess. The results of the two sets of assessments are combined to provide a scenario development strategy. |