||Stochastic Multi-Level Optimization Technique for Design of a Multi-Purpose Water Resource Project.
Torab, Mohammad ;
||California Univ., Los Angeles. Water Resources Center.
||UCAL-WRC-W-239; OWRR-B-091-CAL; 03539,; B-091-CAL(1)
( Water resources ;
Mathematical models) ;
( Stream flow ;
Stochastic processes) ;
( Multiple purpose reservoirs ;
Reservoir engineering ;
Dynamic programming ;
Markov processes ;
Flood control ;
Probability density functions ;
Folsom Reservoir ;
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The main objective of the report was development of a stochastic dynamic model for finding the optimum operating policy of a single multipurpose surface reservoir. The unreliability of forecasting the future streamflow makes the problem of operation of a reservoir a stochastic process. Traditional methods of the optimization of reservoir operation are based on the critical period of hydrology and deterministic streamflow data for future periods. In this project the real nature of streamflow is taken into consideration by developing probability density functions of the streamflow for each calendar month. The model makes use of these density functions to calculate the probability of transition from a given state and stage to its succeeding ones. The recursive equation for the dynamic programming model is, therefore, a stochastic one. (Author)