Grantee Research Project Results
2022 Progress Report: Predicting Drinking Water Contamination from Extreme Weather to Reduce Early Life Contaminant Exposures
EPA Grant Number: R840181Title: Predicting Drinking Water Contamination from Extreme Weather to Reduce Early Life Contaminant Exposures
Investigators: Hochard, Jacob , Clark, Kayla , Collier, David , Curtis, Scott , Etheridge, Randall , Kruse, Jamie , Peralta, Ariane
Current Investigators: Hochard, Jacob
Institution: University of Wyoming , East Carolina University , The Citadel
Current Institution: University of Wyoming
EPA Project Officer: Aja, Hayley
Project Period: December 1, 2020 through November 30, 2023 (Extended to November 30, 2024)
Project Period Covered by this Report: December 1, 2021 through November 30,2022
Project Amount: $799,952
RFA: Contaminated Sites, Natural Disasters, Changing Environmental Conditions and Vulnerable Communities: Research to Build Resilience (2019) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Drinking Water , Endocrine Disruptors , Human Health , Safer Chemicals , Sustainable and Healthy Communities , Children's Health
Objective:
Researchers are working on a multidisciplinary (atmospheric science, economics, ecological engineering, design, pediatrics, microbiology, soil ecology) approach to (1) predict groundwater contamination that leads to human exposures, (2) based on predictive models, engage with county health offices to notify at-risk households with a newborn and (3) assess the impact of the risk messenger on risk mitigation choices. We hypothesize: (1a) chemical concentrations and coliform bacteria in wells relates to proximity to contaminated sites during precipitation events, (1b) bacterial contamination depends on source and seasonality, (1c) homes with aging wells are more vulnerable to contaminants, (3) risk comm. from an ECU pediatrician promotes households' risk mitigation behaviors.
Progress Summary:
We are pleased to report that our project is on schedule and that our team has made excellent progress. The goal(s) of the project have not changed since originally proposed, PI Hochard continues to implement all quality assurance standards, we have not had any changes to key personnel and research misconduct has not occurred. The Year 2 progress was focused on publishing and communicating key findings from our econometric modeling of groundwater contamination events, refining these models, and building relationships with county health offices and stakeholders represented by the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services (NCDHHS). Through NCDHHS, the team contacted all county health offices throughout North Carolina and finalized a partnership with Orange County, North Carolina. Scheduled to launch in May 2023, our team will be using our analytical predictions of groundwater contamination events to launch targeted communications and interventions for at-risk households containing newborn and young children. Here, Orange County, NC will be coordinating private well water testing for households that opt into the service alongside well treatment when total coliform or E. coli bacteria are detected.
The letters that will be used to communicate potential risks to Orange County, NC households was co-produced with our partners at NCDHHS and the Orange County Health Department. Multiple checks for readability, the leveraging of a professional graphic designer and the translation of the letter into two languages ensures that inclusivity and accessibility of our upcoming work in this county. Starting in May 2023, the letter itself will also serve as a medium for facilitating a risk communication randomized control trial (RCT). Here, our team will randomize whether the letter is sent from East Carolina University research scientists or a team pediatrician from ECU's medical school. Together, findings will (i) determine the extent to which the risk communicator encouraged enrollment in voluntary private well water testing while (ii) validating the predictive power of our analytical model by collecting out-of-sample water quality data from private wells.
The team has also continued to refine the hydrological model, SWAT+, for the Cape Fear River basin. The model is now capable of predicting groundwater nitrate contamination levels spatiotemporally, which are being validated against private well water samples from the state laboratory. This validation process will help us extend our risk notifications to households facing potentially high nitrate levels from their drinking water source. At present, our risk communications are based entirely on microbiological predictions, rather than inorganic chemicals. Calibrating the hydrological model, SWAT+, for the Cape Fear River basin was nearly completed in this reporting period. The model was calibrated for river flow at the observation station closest to the animal feeding operations (Figure 1). The best calibration has a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.54, which is good for a watershed this large. The calibrated model was cross validated for flow at other observation stations within the watershed. The NSE was acceptable at all the locations where the simulated values were compared to observed values. We plan to submit a manuscript in April that includes some of our work on the flow calibration.
Figure 1: Map of the Cape Fear River basin with animal feeding operation locations.
Figure 2: Map of the modeled groundwater aquifer areas.
We have made significant progress on simulating groundwater nitrate data using the model. The groundwater aquifer areas are shown in Figure 2. An example of the simulated nitrate concentration in one aquifer for 2005 through 2007 is shown in Figure 3. The model can already help us identify time and location of groundwater wells that may be at the highest risk for nitrate contamination. However, we are still in the process of making alterations to the model to better simulate the nitrate concentration dynamics that are in observed data. The greatest challenge we have had is finding groundwater quality observation data during our period of analysis.
Future Activities:
Our annual team meetings occurred in Greenville, North Carolina in March 2022 and 2023. The meetings were attended by our stakeholders from NC Department of Health and Human Services, NC Department of Environmental Quality, and various non-profit organizations. Communications to households predicted to be at-risk from a potential groundwater contamination event will commence in May and will depend on atmospheric stressors that trigger the risk notifications (e.g., spells of sustained hot weather as per Hochard et al. 2023; SOTEN). Here, we will facilitate our RCT risk communications study as well as collaborate with Orange County, NC County Health Department to facilitate remediation of contaminated wells. Analytical predictions of groundwater contamination will continue to improve as modeling efforts proceed and become integrated with our SWAT+ hydrological model.
Journal Articles on this Report : 1 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
| Other project views: | All 5 publications | 5 publications in selected types | All 5 journal articles |
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Hochard J, Abashidze N, Bawa R, Carr G, Kirkland B, Li Y, Matlock K, Siu WY. Predicting groundwater contamination to protect the storm-exposed vulnerable. Climate Risk Management 2023;40:100499. |
R840181 (2022) R836942 (Final) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
Community-based risk management, averting behavior, predictive modelingProgress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.