Grantee Research Project Results
2013 Progress Report: Extreme Air Quality Events Using a Hierarchy of Models: Present and Future
EPA Grant Number: R835205Title: Extreme Air Quality Events Using a Hierarchy of Models: Present and Future
Investigators: Hess, Peter , Grigoriu, Mircea Dan , Mahowald, Natalie M. , Berner, Judith
Current Investigators: Hess, Peter , Mahowald, Natalie M. , Berner, Judith , Grigoriu, Mircea Dan
Institution: Cornell University , National Center for Atmospheric Research
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: June 1, 2012 through May 31, 2015 (Extended to May 31, 2016)
Project Period Covered by this Report: August 30, 2012 through August 30,2013
Project Amount: $746,825
RFA: Extreme Event Impacts on Air Quality and Water Quality with a Changing Global Climate (2011) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air Quality and Air Toxics , Climate Change , Watersheds , Air , Water
Objective:
- Under current conditions, what is the probability of an extreme pollution event?
- During the next century, how are the probability, frequency, duration, and severity of high pollution episodes likely to change under future emission and climate scenarios?
- What are the geographic, meteorological, climatological, and chemical conditions that could contribute to extreme pollution episodes in the United States?
- What parts of the country are particularly sensitive to extreme pollution events now and in the future?
- How do extreme pollution events relate to heat waves? What are the feedbacks between heat waves and severe pollution events?
Progress Summary:
Future Activities:
We expect to complete our statistical analysis of CASTNET ozone observations examining the joint ozone-temperatue extremes. Following this analysis, it is expected that we will conduct a more extensive analysis of simulated extreme events using the CCMI simulations. The analysis will include: a) extensive comparison between simulated and measured extremes in both temperature and ozone; b) assessing extremes in a much longer timeseries than the CASTNET data permits; c) assessing how extreme values change under non-stationary conditions including changes in emissions and meteorology. We will continue our investigation of stochastic parameterizations and their impact on extreme events in CAM focusing on summertime blocking and stagnation episodes and extending an evaluation of these parameterizations to air quality.
Journal Articles on this Report : 6 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 24 publications | 12 publications in selected types | All 12 journal articles |
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Berner J, Fossell KR, Ha S-Y, Hacker JP, Snyder C. Increasing the skill of probabilistic forecasts: understanding performance improvements from model-error representations. Monthly Weather Review 2015;143(4):1295-1320. |
R835205 (2013) R835205 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
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Brown-Steiner B, Hess PG, Lin MY. On the capabilities and limitations of GCCM simulations of summertime regional air quality:a diagnostic analysis of ozone and temperature simulations in the US using CESM CAM-Chem. Atmospheric Environment 2015;101:134-148. |
R835205 (2013) R835205 (2014) R835205 (Final) R834283 (Final) |
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Clark SK, Ward DS, Mahowald NM. The sensitivity of global climate to the episodicity of fire aerosol emissions. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 2013;13:23691-23717. |
R835205 (2013) R835205 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
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Franzke CLE, O'Kane TJ, Berner J, Williams PD, Lucarini V. Stochastic climate theory and modeling. WIREs Climate Change 2015;6(1):63-78. |
R835205 (2013) R835205 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
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Riddick S, Ward D, Hess P, Mahowald N, Massad R, Holland E. Estimate of changes in agricultural terrestrial nitrogen pathways and ammonia emissions from 1850 to present in the Community Earth System Model. Biogeosciences 2016;13(11):3397-3426. |
R835205 (2013) R835205 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
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Romine GS, Schwartz CS, Berner J, Fossell KR, Snyder C, Anderson JL, Weisman ML. Representing forecast error in a convection-permitting ensemble system. Monthly Weather Review 2014;142(12):4519-4541. |
R835205 (2013) R835205 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
Supplemental Keywords:
Global climate, CASTNET, environmental chemistry, statistics, general circulation models, air qualityProgress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.