Grantee Research Project Results

2012 Progress Report: [Climate Change and Allergic Airway Disease] Observational,Laboratory, and Modeling Studies of the Impacts of Climate Change onAllergic Airway Disease

EPA Grant Number: R834547
Title: [Climate Change and Allergic Airway Disease] Observational,Laboratory, and Modeling Studies of the Impacts of Climate Change onAllergic Airway Disease
Investigators: Bielory, Leonard , Georgopoulos, Panos G. , Isukapalli, Sastry S. , Robock, Alan , Mayer, Henry , Hom, John , Ziska, Lewis
Current Investigators: Bielory, Leonard , Georgopoulos, Panos G. , Isukapalli, Sastry S. , Robock, Alan , Mayer, Henry , Hom, John , Velliyagounder, Kabilan , Ziska, Lewis , Lankow, Richard , Bonos, Stacy
Institution: Rutgers
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: April 1, 2010 through March 31, 2012 (Extended to March 31, 2016)
Project Period Covered by this Report: April 1, 2012 through March 31,2013
Project Amount: $900,000
RFA: Climate Change and Allergic Airway Disease (2008) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Climate Change , Human Health

Objective:

To develop a regional atmospheric dynamic model of pollen production, distribution and dispersion.
To develop a population exposure and dose model for estimating pollen exposures.
To generate pollen phenology from the 25 years database from the existing certified 74 U.S. pollen counting stations.
To use the regional model to determine how climate change over the next 50 years will change pollen production, distribution, dispersion, and subsequently exposures.
To determine the impact of climate change on pollen allergenicity of various species of plants using plant chamber and transects with in vitro and in vivo techniques.

Progress Summary:

Analysis of observed airborne 1994-2011 pollen data from American Academy of Allergy Asthma and Immunology (AAAAI) monitoring stations has been completed.

Annual cumulative airborne pollen count, maximum daily pollen count, mean daily count during the pollen season, start date, season length, and the date of maximum daily pollen count were derived for birch, oak, ragweed, mugwort and grass based on the observed airborne daily count in 86 AAAAI stations across the contiguous United States.
Five representative stations in the United States were chosen to further study the relationship between start date and season length, and observed hourly temperature using a Growing Degree Hours (GDH) model. The resultant optimum threshold GDH, initial date, and base temperature were utilized to parameterize the start date and pollen season length in an emission model.
Trends of annual cumulative pollen count, maximum daily pollen count, start date and pollen seasons were obtained at 60 AAAAI monitoring stations, which have valid pollen data recorded during 1994-2011. Changes of mean pollen indices between the period of 1994-2000 and period of 2001-2010 were compared to identify the climate change effects on spatial temporal distributions of allergenic pollen.
Changes of mean pollen indices for the periods of 1994-2000 and 2001-2010 were analyzed along the latitude; variograms of mean pollen indices in these two periods also were calculated to identify the variation pattern of allergenic pollen timing and levels for different locations.

Bayesian analysis continued to study the relationship between multiple pollen indices and multiple climatic factors using historical pollen and climate data in three representative stations in Europe, and five stations in the United States. The relationships that were established were used to relate future pollen indices (such as annual total) to the future temperature and CO₂ levels projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The output of the Bayesian analysis provided future annual total emission fluxes for the emission model.

Continued development of SMOKE-Pollen, a pollen-specific emission model based on the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) Modeling System incorporating physical processes such as direct emission and re-suspension of pollen particles, and accounting for meteorological parameters such as surface temperature trends, friction velocity, humidity, precipitation, etc., and information on land use/land cover. The model also incorporates results of historical analysis for estimating effects of climate change on annual pollen emission flux.

A GDH model was used to generate the start date and length of pollen season based on historical and future meteorology.
Area coverage of birch, oak and grass were obtained from the Biogenic Emissions Land use Database, version 3 (BELD3).
Daily and hourly flowering likelihood were parameterzied based on published data.
A sensitivity analyses module is being developed to test the sensitivities of the developed emission model to different input parameters, and to obtain sensitive parameters for further analyses.

Continued development of WRF-SMOKE-CMAQ-Pollen, a mechanistic modeling system, coupling Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) with SMOKE-Pollen and the Community Multiscale Air Quality system (CMAQ), to simulate spatiotemporal profiles of pollen emissions and transport over large domains (e.g., the contiguous United States) under a climate change scenario within the framework of the Modeling ENvironment for TOtal Risk studies (MENTOR).

Results from a version of the WRF model were utilized and downscaled to derive historical and future meteorology data. Historical meteorology simulations were conducted using the National Center for Environmental Prediction/Department of Energy (NCEP/DOE) Reanalysis 2 for boundary conditions; future meteorology simulations were performed using output from the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) to define boundary conditions.
The CMAQ model was adapted to simulate pollen transport including the following physico-chemical processes: cloud dynamics, aerosol chemistry, wet and dry deposition, horizontal and vertical advection and dispersion.
Verification was conducted by comparing the output of the combined WRF-SMOKE- CMAQ-Pollen modeling system with the observed pollen count at ~ 86 monitoring stations in the United States and Canada. Statistical analysis is being conducted to obtain metrics such as mean square errors, quantile-quantiles plots, skill scores, etc., to evaluate simulation results from the model.
Sensitivity analyses are being performed to test the response of the developed WRF- SMOKE-CMAQ-Pollen model to different meteorology files and scenarios. The selected sensitive parameters will be further checked to improve the modeling accuracy.

Continued development of an exposure modeling system, adapted to generate population exposure estimates for multiple aero-allergenic pollens, under different climate change scenarios.

Background spatio-temporal concentrations of pollen are being derived from simulation results of the combined WRF-SMOKE-CMAQ-Pollen modeling system.
Human activity patterns will be obtained from the Consolidated Human Activity Database (CHAD) using region-specific demographic information. Inhalation rates used in the exposure model are estimated with USEPA’s Exposure Factors Handbook.

Ongoing Climate Chamber studies - presently completing the collection of the final duplicate runs on the weeds (ragweed, mugwort, plantain).

Results to date

Analysis of historical airborne pollen data from approximately 85 U.S. stations indicates that responses of birch, oak, ragweed, mugwort, and grass pollens to climate change are varied. Furthermore, trends of pollen indices such as start and peak dates, season length, peak values, annual production and annual mean value of the same species behave differently in response to climate change in different U.S. regions.
Five representative stations in the United States were chosen to further study the relationship between start date and season length, and observed hourly temperature using a Growing Degree Hours (GDH) model. The resultant optimum threshold GDH, initial date, and base temperature were utilized to parameterize the start date and pollen season length in an emission model.
Trends of annual cumulative pollen count, maximum daily pollen count, start date and pollen seasons were obtained at 60 AAAAI monitoring stations, which have valid pollen data recorded during 1994-2011. Changes of mean pollen indices between the period of 1994-2000 and the period of 2001-2010 were compared to identify the climate change effects on spatial temporal distributions of allergenic pollen.
Changes of mean pollen indices in the periods of 1994-2000 and 2001-2010 were analyzed along the latitude; variograms of mean pollen indices in these two periods also were calculated to identify the variation pattern of allergenic pollen timing and levels for different locations.
Bayesian analysis of historical airborne pollen data from three European stations and two U.S. stations suggests that annual productions and peak values of birch pollen from 2020 to 2100 under different scenarios will be 1.3-8.0 and 1.1-7.3 times higher, respectively, than the mean values for 2000, and start and peak dates will occur approximately 2 to 4 weeks earlier.
Simulation results of ambient distributions of pollen in 2004 were evaluated using observed birch pollen data from multiple AAAAI pollen stations. It is demonstrated that simulation results from the combined SMOKE-WRF-CMAQ-Pollen modeling system could characterize reasonably well the spatiotemporal distribution of birch and oak pollen; and that the simulation estimates were comparable with those from observed climatologic means. Simulation results of emissions and ambient distributions of birch and oak pollen for 2040 and 2050 further showed that responses of pollen timing and quantity to future climatic conditions will be different for different allergenic genus and different regions.
Simulation results have been obtained for birch and oak pollen distributions for the periods of 1999-2004 and 2045-2050. Demonstration simulations have been run using the emission module and transport modules for ragweed and mugwort pollen.

Future Activities:

Climate Chambers - The environmental growth chambers were received at the USDA location in Maryland. They required simulations for past and present climates prior to initiation of specific allergenic plant growths. The first run is being completed at elevated CO₂ and temperature. Two runs have been completed at elevated CO₂ alone, and a second run will be started after switching chambers for the elevated CO₂ and temperature treatment, by September 1, 2012. Pollen collection is under way and ~200 mg/plantain plant have been collected; mugwort may reach 1 gm of pollen per plant (presently collecting 200 mg/mugwort plant sampled). The plan is to purchase a special vacuum to collect the pollen and increase the yield. Ragweed will reach a gram of pollen per plant. At present, we are finishing the last run at the elevated CO₂ and elevated temperature treatment, and that should be complete by September 2013.The grass pollen program is projected to begin in October 2013.
Electron and routine microscopy - baseline samples have been generated for grass pollen (phleum pretense) and common mugwort. Additional baseline allergenic plants to be studied include ragweed and English plantain. Baseline measurements of control samples utilizing a digital program have been initiated. Digital imaging of pollen has been initiated for baseline studies.
The combined WRF-SMOKE-CMAQ-Pollen modeling system will be run to generate emissions and ambient distributions of ragweed, mugwort, and grass for multiple years from the periods 1999-2004 and 2045-2050.
The sensitivity analyses modules for both the emission model and transport model will be improved and applied to birch pollen emission and distributions. Sensitive parameters obtained from the study will be further checked to improve the modeling accuracy.
The existing MENTOR system will be adapted to generate population exposures of multiple aero-allergic pollens under different climate change scenarios.
Manuscripts will be prepared on analysis results using observed historical airborne pollen data and meteorology data, and for the developed pollen emission and transport model.

Journal Articles on this Report : 6 Displayed | Download in RIS Format

Publications Views
Other project views:	All 63 publications	16 publications in selected types	All 14 journal articles

Publications
Type	Citation	Project	Document Sources
Journal Article	Bielory L, Lyons K, Goldberg R. Climate change and allergic disease. Current Allergy and Asthma Reports 2012;12(6):485-494.	R834547 (2012) R834547 (Final)	Abstract from PubMed Full-text: ResearchGate-Abstract & Full Text-PDF Exit Abstract: Springer-Abstract Exit
Journal Article	Dapul-Hidalgo G, Bielory L. Climate change and allergic diseases. Annals of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology 2012;109(3):166-172.	R834547 (2011) R834547 (2012) R834547 (Final)	Full-text: ResearchGate-Introduction & Full Text-PDF Exit Abstract: AAA&I-Abstract Exit
Journal Article	Zhang Y, Isukapalli SS, Bielory L, Georgopoulos PG. Bayesian analysis of climate change effects on observed and projected airborne levels of birch pollen. Atmospheric Environment 2013;68:64-73.	R834547 (2011) R834547 (2012) R834547 (2014) R834547 (Final)	Full-text from PubMed Abstract from PubMed Associated PubMed link Full-text: ScienceDirect-Full Text-HTML Exit Abstract: ScienceDirect-Abstract Exit Other: ScienceDirect-Full Text-PDF Exit
Journal Article	Zhang Y, Bielory L, Georgopoulos PG. Climate change effect on Betula (birch) and Quercus (oak) pollen seasons in the United States. International Journal of Biometeorology 2014;58(5):909-919.	R834547 (2011) R834547 (2012) R834547 (2013) R834547 (2014) R834547 (Final)	Full-text from PubMed Abstract from PubMed Associated PubMed link Full-text: ResearchGate-Abstract & Full-text-PDF Exit Abstract: Springer-Abstract & Full-text HTML Exit
Journal Article	Zhang Y, Bielory L, Mi Z, Cai T, Robock A, Georgopoulos P. Allergenic pollen season variations in the past two decades under changing climate in the United States. Global Change Biology 2015;21(4):1581-1589.	R834547 (2012) R834547 (2013) R834547 (2014) R834547 (Final)	Abstract from PubMed Full-text: ResearchGate-Abstract & Full Text-PDF Exit Abstract: Wiley-Abstract Exit
Journal Article	Zhang Y, Bielory L, Cai T, Mi Z, Georgopoulos P. Predicting onset and duration of airborne allergenic pollen season in the United States. Atmospheric Environment 2015;103:297-306.	R834547 (2012) R834547 (2013) R834547 (2014) R834547 (Final)	Abstract from PubMed Full-text: ScienceDirect-Full Text HTML Exit Abstract: ScienceDirect-Abstract Exit Other: ScienceDirect-Full Text PDF Exit

Supplemental Keywords:

allergens, exposure, climate change, health effects, dose-response, RFA, Health, Scientific Discipline, Air, Health Risk Assessment, climate change, Risk Assessments, Environmental Monitoring, Ecological Risk Assessment, air quality modeling, ecosystem models, climatic influence, climate related morbidity, emissions impact, modeling, climate models, demographics, human exposure, regional climate model, ambient air pollution, Global Climate Change

Relevant Websites:

Rutgers Department of Environmental Sciences Exit
Rutgers Computational Chemodynamics Laboratory (CCL) Exit

Progress and Final Reports:

Original Abstract

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.