Grantee Research Project Results

2010 Progress Report: Effects of Climate Change and Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Strategies on Air Quality

EPA Grant Number: R834284
Title: Effects of Climate Change and Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Strategies on Air Quality
Investigators: Brouwer, Jacob , Dabdub, Donald
Institution: University of California - Irvine
EPA Project Officer: Hahn, Intaek
Project Period: December 1, 2009 through November 30, 2012 (Extended to November 30, 2013)
Project Period Covered by this Report: July 1, 2009 through June 30,2010
Project Amount: $600,000
RFA: Adaptation for Future Air Quality Analysis and Decision Support Tools in Light of Global Change Impacts and Mitigation (2008) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air Quality and Air Toxics , Air , Climate Change

Objective:

The current effort will apply rigorous, peer-reviewed, and scientifically sound analysis techniques to quantify the changes in pollutant emissions and the resulting air quality impacts caused by global climate change and greenhouse gases (GHG) mitigation policies. Crucial to the current analyses are three quantitative analyses processes: (1) rigorous determination of climate change impacts on regional air quality modeling to enable model adaptation, (2) regional pollutant emissions quantification due to technological changes that result from GHG mitigation strategies, and (3) detailed regional air quality modeling to assess environmental impacts. Rigorous analyses of model sensitivity to climate change, to spatial and temporal emissions fields, and to the air quality impacts are required to deliver the desired understanding.

Progress Summary:

We have delineated the main strategies to analyze the impacts of GHG mitigation strategies on air quality. The geographical areas of interest were selected based on scientific interest and data availability. The capabilities for emission and air quality modeling have been acquired, and we were able to produce preliminary simulations for the areas of interest. Hence, we can state with confidence that the modeling tools are working and ready to be employed for forthcoming analyses.

During this period, we have developed a bibliographical database that includes a thorough review of strategies for the mitigation of GHG. Those strategies include measures at a national level as well as region-specific emission controls. The database ranks the measures by their potential in terms of GHG emission reductions and their resulting impacts on criteria pollutant emissions. This database will be the basis for future tasks, which will be conducted during the following reporting period.

Baseline current emissions have been developed for the entire United States. Emission modeling capabilities are being adapted to improve modeling resolution and refine area-specific emission estimates. With area-specific information on emissions, future baseline emissions will be developed based on the expected mitigation strategies reviewed in the database, and refined concurrently with next tasks. Hence, this particular subtask will continue over the programmed timeline, and into next reporting period.

Detailed simulations of the effects of meteorological and boundary conditions have been conducted for Southern California. Similar simulations will be conducted for the rest of California and for the northeastern United States. These results will be incorporated in the analysis of the effects of climate change and background levels of pollutants on the efficiency of future mitigation strategies.

Future Activities:

New simulations will be conducted to analyze the effects of meteorological conditions and background pollutant concentrations on air quality in Central California and the Northeastern United States. Statistical analyses will be conducted to determine region-specific effects of global climate change.

Information gathered in the technology database on vehicle technology and transportation measures will be used in conjunction with emission modeling tools, such as SMOKE, to determine spatially and temporally resolved emissions inventories. This task will entail developing a set of plausible scenarios, in addition to sensitivity scenarios to determine the bounds in region-specific emissions of pollutants. Similarly, a set of scenarios will be developed in order to determine emissions resulting from mitigation strategies targeted to utility sectors. The set of scenarios will include plausible options for emission control strategies, as well as sensitivity analyses to determine the uncertainty bounds in the emissions estimates. In addition, future actions will evaluate the interaction and integration of strategies targeting transportation with measures in the utility sectors.

Journal Articles:

No journal articles submitted with this report: View all 8 publications for this project

Supplemental Keywords:

Electric power generation, transportation, ozone, particulate matter, greenhouse gases, California, Northeast
, RFA, Air, Atmosphere, Air Pollution Effects, climate change, air quality modeling

Relevant Websites:

Advanced Power and Energy Program: http://www.apep.uci.edu/ Exit

Computational Environmental Sciences Laboratory: http://albeniz.eng.uci.edu/dabdub/ Exit

Progress and Final Reports:

Original Abstract

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.