Grantee Research Project Results
2013 Progress Report: US Freshwater Resources in the Coming Decades: An Integrated Climate-hydrologic Modeling Study
EPA Grant Number: R834190Title: US Freshwater Resources in the Coming Decades: An Integrated Climate-hydrologic Modeling Study
Investigators: Reinfelder, Ying Fan , Robinson, David A. , Miller, James R.
Current Investigators: Reinfelder, Ying Fan
Institution: Rutgers
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: August 1, 2009 through July 31, 2012 (Extended to July 31, 2014)
Project Period Covered by this Report: August 1, 2012 through July 31,2013
Project Amount: $769,065
RFA: Consequences of Global Change for Water Quality (2008) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration , Climate Change , Watersheds , Aquatic Ecosystems , Water
Objective:
(1) To reconstruct-understand past hydrologic changes in N. America using model and observations and (2) to project coupled climate-hydrologic changes in the 21st century under IPCC scenarios.
Progress Summary:
(1) In accessing past hydrologic changes, we completed model simulations of past 34 years of N. America land hydrology with LEAF-Hydro-Flood which couples surface and groundwater in an integrative framework. Observations are used to test the model and revealed the imperativeness of the model to include direct alternations of the water cycle by humans such as groundwater pumping and irrigation. These processes have been coded into the model and supporting data (e.g. irrigation water use) are being complied to support new simulations with anthropogenic forces.
(2) In assessing possible future changes in the water cycle, we focused on one aspect of land hydrology: wetland distribution and extent. Using water table depth as an indicator of wetland condition, we compiled water table observations and interpolated the observations using a simple groundwater model at 1km grid resolution. Such simulated wetland distribution and extent agree well with mapped wetlands. To project its change into the future, we used the median of 29 GCM climate projections from CMIP5 to derive changes in P-ET balance, winter temperature and resulting permafrost table, and the combined effect of global sea-level rise and local land rebound from last ice age. We are performing the set of simulations to evaluate the effect of each and in combination.
(3) Detailed precipitation analyses provided further evidence that large-scale irrigation in the High Plains has increased downwind summer time precipitation by increasing the frequency of light to moderate events. Warmer temperature indeed affected the heavier storms. Both climate and landuse change contributed to precipitation, each through different mechanisms and left different signatures in the observed precipitation distribution.
Future Activities:
(1) Complete model simulations and analyses accounting for direct human alterations of the water cycle, in reconstructing the past hydrologic change over the nation. We plan to report the results in 2-part companion papers, one with humans, and the other without.
(2). Complete the model projection of future wetland distribution and extent, under three driving forces: changing P-ET balance, warmer arctic temperature and lowering of frost table and enhanced drainage, and global sea-level rise countered by land rebound from ice age in the high latitudes.
(3). Complete 3 parts on irrigation-climate link, the first on observed frequency change, the second expanding the analysis to the nation and other seasons, and the third using WRF model coupled to our land model (LEAF-Hydro-Flood) to corroborate with the observation analyses, to test the mechanisms hypothesized in the two observation-based studies.
Journal Articles on this Report : 5 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
| Other project views: | All 13 publications | 10 publications in selected types | All 10 journal articles |
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Fan Y, Li H, Miguez-Macho G. Global patterns of groundwater table depth. Science 2013;339(6122):940-943. |
R834190 (2013) R834190 (Final) |
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Kustu MD, Fan Y, Rodell M. Possible link between irrigation in the U.S. High Plains and increased summer streamflow in the Midwest. Water Resources Research 2011;47(3):W03522 (21 pp.). |
R834190 (2010) R834190 (2013) R834190 (Final) |
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Miguez-Macho G, Fan Y. The role of groundwater in the Amazon water cycle: 1. Influence on seasonal streamflow, flooding and wetlands. Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres 2012;117(D15):D15113 (30 pp.). |
R834190 (2012) R834190 (2013) R834190 (Final) |
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Miguez-Macho G, Fan Y. The role of groundwater in the Amazon water cycle: 2. Influence on seasonal soil moisture and evapotranspiration. Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres 2012;117(D15):D15114 (27 pp.). |
R834190 (2012) R834190 (2013) R834190 (Final) |
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Pokhrel YN, Fan Y, Miguez-Macho G, Yeh PJ-F, Han S-C. The role of groundwater in the Amazon water cycle:3. Influence on terrestrial water storage computations and comparison with GRACE. Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres 2013;118(8):3233-3244. |
R834190 (2013) R834190 (Final) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
Water resources, climate variability, climate change, irrigation withdraw, land hydrology, stream flow, flooding, droughts, groundwater, soil moisture, wetlands, WRF, dynamic downscaling, IPCC, CMIP5, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Hydrology, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Environmental MonitoringRelevant Websites:
PI website lists the project and resulting publications:
http://geology.rutgers.edu/people/19-people/faculty/244-ying-fan-reinfelder
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.