Grantee Research Project Results
2010 Progress Report: Investigation of the Effects of Changing Climate on Fires and the Consequences for U.S. Air Quality, Phase 2.
EPA Grant Number: R834282Title: Investigation of the Effects of Changing Climate on Fires and the Consequences for U.S. Air Quality, Phase 2.
Investigators: Logan, Jennifer A. , Mickley, Loretta J. , Rind, David
Institution: Harvard University , NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: November 1, 2009 through October 31, 2012 (Extended to October 31, 2013)
Project Period Covered by this Report: July 1, 2009 through June 30,2010
Project Amount: $599,366
RFA: Adaptation for Future Air Quality Analysis and Decision Support Tools in Light of Global Change Impacts and Mitigation (2008) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air Quality and Air Toxics , Climate Change , Air
Objective:
This project continues our investigation of the impact of changing climate on wildfires, and the consequences for air quality over the U.S, funded under EPA 2004-STAR-L1. We will improve the prediction tools of wildfire activity over the western U.S. by taking into account new and critical factors. To reduce uncertainties in our predictions, we will perform ensemble projections for future wildfire activity with new fire models driven by data from multiple scenarios and climate models. We will then apply the calculated fire emissions to the chemistry-aerosol transport model GEOS-Chem to estimate the fire-induced changes in carbonaceous (black carbon and organic carbon) aerosol concentrations. For these simulations we will drive GEOS-Chem with meteorological fields archived from the GISS GCM3.
Progress Summary:
We have developed both fire regression models and a fire parameterization model for fire prediction over the western U.S. The regression models build relationships between area burned and meteorological factors with stepwise regression method based on ecoregions; they explain 25%-60% of the variance in area burned over six ecoregions. The parameterization model determines daily area burned over each grid point by an empirical function composed of temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation. The predicted monthly total area burned over the western U.S. is highly correlated with observations with a correlation coefficient of 0.73 for 300 months (1980-2004). We use simulated present-day and future daily meteorological variables under the A1B scenario from 14 IPCC models and the NASA/GISS GCM3 to drive both fire models. Regression models project that the annual area burned will increase by 20%-125% and parameterization models by (35%-169%) over six ecoregions; both fire models predict a significant increase in area burned over forest ecoregions. The length of fire season will extend by three weeks for the warmer and drier climate. With the GEOS-Chem model, we estimate that the average surface concentrations of organic carbon aerosol in summer over the western United States will increase by 42%-58% and black carbon concentrations will increase by 18%-24% at the midcentury, due to the increased wildfire emission.
Future Activities:
Work is ongoing to improve predictions of fire activity in the shrub and grass ecosystems of California and the southwest United States. Critical factors such as lightning ignition, fuel load, and elevation will be considered for the fire prediction tools. We will improve calculations of the impact of changing fire activity on air quality using meteorological fields with finer vertical and horizontal resolution. We will also investigate the possible impact of future fire on episodes of intense aerosol pollution.Journal Articles:
No journal articles submitted with this report: View all 6 publications for this projectSupplemental Keywords:
forest fires, fire emissions, biomass burning, air quality, tropospheric ozone, tropospheric aerosol, PM, visibility, climate models, air pollution, climate change, downscaling., RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Environmental MonitoringRelevant Websites:
Information on this project may be found atProgress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.