Grantee Research Project Results

2010 Progress Report: Regional Infrastructure and Air Quality Planning in Light of Global Change

EPA Grant Number: R834283
Title: Regional Infrastructure and Air Quality Planning in Light of Global Change
Investigators: Hess, Peter , Mahowald, Natalie M. , Zhang, Ke Max , Donaghy, Kieran P.
Institution: Cornell University
EPA Project Officer: Callan, Richard
Project Period: October 1, 2009 through September 30, 2012 (Extended to September 30, 2015)
Project Period Covered by this Report: October 1, 2009 through September 30,2010
Project Amount: $591,683
RFA: Adaptation for Future Air Quality Analysis and Decision Support Tools in Light of Global Change Impacts and Mitigation (2008) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air Quality and Air Toxics , Climate Change , Air

Objective:

The purpose of the research is to:

1) determine how changes exogenous to the U.S. including changes in climate, changes in emissions and changes in the global economy will impact U.S. air quality over the Northeastern region of the United States in the future;

2) determine how long-term changes in transportation infrastructure, technology and power generation in response to future economic and regulatory changes (including those induced by climate change) will induce communities within the Northeastern U.S. to make regional scale changes in land-use, transportation and spatial interaction to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and thus modify regional air-quality.

Progress Summary:

In the past year we have produced an interregional input-output (I-O) table for thirteen states and thirteen industries. The table was generated for the most recent benchmark year for which the commodity flow data was released. Using this data we generated a consistent time series on production for considered industries. We are presently employing the I-O table and the time-series data to estimate the parameters of a regional econometric input-output model (REIM).

In the past year we have run simulations to understand and estimate the import of pollution into the U.S. This has resulted in the following conclusions: (i) the summer ozone plume from Asia occurs at higher heights than the winter/spring plume and its concentration is higher; (ii) transport of Asian pollution to the surface over the U.S. tends to occur in the air subsiding air along isentropic surfaces to the west of cold fronts; (iii) while the summertime ozone plume is higher in concentration than the winter/spring ozone plume, it is not readily transported to the surface; (iv) the highest surface ozone concentrations over the U.S. attributable to Asian pollution occur during the spring months because the transport is efficient, ozone concentrations over Asia are relatively high during spring and relatively little ozone is destroyed en route.

Future Activities:

In the upcoming year we plan to (i) employ the I-O table and the timeseries data on commodity flows to estimate the parameters of a regional econometric input-output model (REIM). Once the data have been generated, we will employ them in the econometric estimation of a dynamic commodity flow model; (ii) define future climate and emission scenarios on regional and local scales over the Northeast U.S. making use of the dynamic commodity flow model; (iii) hold a workshop with stakeholders and specifically defining regional emission trajectories over the Northeast U.S.; (iv) run CAM-chem in future climate-chemistry configurations, and (v) continue to evaluate the CAM-chem using present-day measurements.

Journal Articles:

No journal articles submitted with this report: View all 16 publications for this project

Supplemental Keywords:

RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, POLLUTION PREVENTION, Energy, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Environmental Monitoring, Atmospheric Sciences, Atmosphere, atmospheric nitrogen, particulate matter, decision making, energy efficiency, environmental policy, forests, deforestation, ecosystem sustainability, air quality, Global Climate Change, land use

Relevant Websites:

http://www.bee.cornell.edu/cals/bee/people/hess.cfm Exit

Progress and Final Reports:

Original Abstract

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.