Grantee Research Project Results
2010 Progress Report: Impacts of Global Climate and Emissions Changes on U.S. Air Quality (Ozone, Particulate Matter, Mercury) and Projection Uncertainty
EPA Grant Number: R833373Title: Impacts of Global Climate and Emissions Changes on U.S. Air Quality (Ozone, Particulate Matter, Mercury) and Projection Uncertainty
Investigators: Liang, Xin-Zhong , Wuebbles, Donald J. , Williams, Allen , Lei, Hang , Huang, Ho-Chun , Zhu, Jinhong , Kunkel, Kenneth , Caughey, Michael , Su, Shenjian
Current Investigators: Liang, Xin-Zhong , Wuebbles, Donald J. , Williams, Allen , Lei, Hang , He, Hao , Kunkel, Kenneth , Caughey, Michael , Su, Senjian
Institution: University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign , University of Maryland - College Park
Current Institution: University of Maryland - College Park
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: April 15, 2007 through April 14, 2011 (Extended to April 14, 2013)
Project Period Covered by this Report: April 15, 2010 through April 14,2011
Project Amount: $900,000
RFA: Consequences of Global Change For Air Quality (2006) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Climate Change , Air
Objective:
The objective of this study is to quantify and understand the impacts and uncertainties of global climate and emission changes, from the present to 2050 and 2100, on USA air quality, focusing on ozone, particulate matter and mercury. The original contribution of this research will derive from the application of a unique, state-of-the-art, well-established ensemble modeling system that couples a global climate-chemical transport component with a mesoscale regional climate-air quality component over North America. Both components incorporate multiple alternative models representing the likely range of climate sensitivity and chemistry response under the conceivable emissions scenarios to rigorously assess the result uncertainty. Each will be enhanced to contain a fully coupled model to study climate-aerosol interactions, focusing on how they affect USA air quality at the present and in the future.
We propose to conduct three primary sets of experiments by the ensemble modeling system to achieve the proposed objective. Historical simulations of climate and air quality for the recent past will first be conducted for system validation and bias identification, and also used as the baseline reference for future projections. Future projections for 2050 and 2100 then will be made to quantify the individual and combined impacts of global climate and emissions changes on USA air quality. Finally, sensitivity experiments will refine understanding of relationships with major contributing source regions and types, and uncertainties associated with key conclusions.
All experiments will focus on April-October when most air quality episodes occur (except for sensitivity studies on the PM and mercury annual cycle), and integrate for a period of 5-10 years to obtain reasonably robust statistics. Subsequent diagnostic studies will identify possible future changes, and their climate and emissions causes, in the frequency, duration, and extreme pollutant concentrations of adverse air quality episodes over the USA.
Through the proposed application of this unique ensemble modeling system, we will make a major contribution to a key goal of the EPA Global Change Research Program to quantify the effect and uncertainty of global changes on U.S. air quality. The advanced state of the system components will result in a more complete scientific understanding of complex interactions among global climate and emissions and air quality in the USA across a full range of spatial and temporal scales. We will build on recent achievements of our ozone study, including a developed modeling system, viable experiment design, effective modeling strategy and objective diagnostic approach, for ozone consolidation, aerosol elaboration and mercury exploration studies for use in designing future effective emission control strategies to meet the national standards.
Progress Summary:
- We have completed the CMM5 integration driven by the CCSM3 for 1995-2005, and 2046-2055 under the IPCC B1, A1B and A1FI emissions scenarios. The CWRF integration driven by the CCSM3 for 1995-2005 was finished recently. The result continues to support our earlier finding that the RCM downscaling improves the present-day regional climate simulations (more realistic than the driving GCMs) and likely provides more credible (than GCMs) projections of future regional climate changes.
- We have completed the global CAM-Chem simulations driven by CCSM3 climate conditions and the regional CMAQ simulations driven by CMM5 climate conditions and CAM-Chem chemical lateral boundary conditions for the present (1998-2002) and future (2048-2052). These global and regional simulations now are being analyzed for the assessment of individual and combined effects of global climate and emissions change on U.S. air quality (ozone, PM, mercury).
- We have demonstrated that the Bermuda high over the North Atlantic plays a central role on the U.S. climate and ozone distribution. We found that the Bermuda high variations in strength or east-west movement induces a distinct ozone oscillation between the southern plains-midwest and eastern coastal states, and that this oscillation exhibits strong decadal variations that must be considered in the dynamic management of the U.S. air quality. Unfortunately, all existing GCMs poorly simulate the Bermuda high interannual correlation patterns, imposing a serious problem for U.S. air quality modeling.
- We have investigated the effects of projected global changes in climate and human-related emissions on the potential risk of hazardous ozone pollution episodes using the CAM-Chem driven by the CCSM3 climate conditions under the A1FI, A1B and B1 scenarios. The projected changes in air temperature, precipitation, lighting, planetary boundary layer height and cyclone activities tend to intensify the associated extreme weather conditions that foster the risk of high ozone pollution episodes over many parts of the world. Under the A1B and B1 scenarios the risk of hazardous ozone pollution episodes likely will decrease in developed countries, but increase in developing countries. Under the A1FI scenario, the hazardous risks overall increase.
- We have developed a mechanistic representation of the atmospheric mercury cycle and implemented it into the CAM-Chem to simulate the emission, transport, transformation and deposition of atmospheric mercury (Hg) in three forms: elemental mercury (Hg0), reactive mercury (HgII), and particulate mercury (HgP). The evaluation of simulated total gaseous mercury (TGM) concentrations with measurements from available worldwide sites and mercury wet depositions over the continental United States against observations at the Mercury Deposition Network stations indicates a strong capability for the CAM-Chem mercury mechanism to represent the atmospheric mercury cycle. Sensitivity experiments show that 22% of total mercury deposition and 25% of TGM concentrations in the United States results from domestic anthropogenic sources, but only 9% of total mercury deposition and 7% of TGM concentrations are contributed by trans-Pacific transport. However, the contributions of domestic and trans-Pacific sources on the western U.S. levels of mercury are comparable.
- We have actively participated in national and regional (Northeast U.S. and Chicago) assessments of climate change and air quality impacts. With the support of this EPA STAR project, we have published 12 papers, submitted 3 papers, and almost completed 3 manuscripts for publication in peer-reviewed journals. During the last project year alone, one manuscript has been published, three submitted, and three almost completed. This report includes summary discussions of the key results from the three manuscripts to be submitted.
Future Activities:
The future activities are:
- Diagnose outputs to quantify relative roles of global climate and emission changes
- Diagnose outputs to study the impacts of climate and emission changes on U.S air quality
- Publish the results in peer-reviewed journal articles, including:
- Zhu, J., and X.-Z. Liang, 2011: Impacts of the Bermuda high on regional climate and air quality over the United States. J. Climate
- Lei, H., D.J. Wuebbles, and X.-Z. Liang, 2011: Projecting ozone air quality in 2050 I: Risk of high ozone episodes. J. Geophys. Res.
- Lei, H., X.-Z. Liang, D.J. Wuebbles, and S. Olsen, 2011: Simulations of atmospheric mercury by CAM-Chem: Present air quality and effect of transpacific transport on U.S. J. Geophys. Res.
- Future USA PM and mercury air quality changes
Journal Articles on this Report : 1 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 21 publications | 21 publications in selected types | All 21 journal articles |
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Type | Citation | ||
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Markus M, Wuebbles DJ, Liang X-Z, Hayhoe K, Kristovich DAR. Diagnostic analysis of future climate scenarios applied to urban flooding in the Chicago metropolitan area. Climatic Change 2012;111(3-4):879-902. |
R833373 (2010) R833373 (Final) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
climate change, emission, uncertainty, pollutant transport, ozone, particulate matter, mercury, aerosol, dust, deposition, regional climate model, air quality model, RFA, Air, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Atmosphere, air quality modeling, environmental monitoring, particulate matterRelevant Websites:
http://cwrf.umd.edu/application.php?aqm Exit
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.
Project Research Results
- Final Report
- 2011 Progress Report
- 2009 Progress Report
- 2008 Progress Report
- 2007 Progress Report
- Original Abstract
21 journal articles for this project