Grantee Research Project Results
2007 Progress Report: Effects of Future Emissions and a Changed Climate on Urban Air Quality
EPA Grant Number: R833371Title: Effects of Future Emissions and a Changed Climate on Urban Air Quality
Investigators: Jacobson, Mark Z. , Streets, David G.
Institution: Stanford University , Argonne National Laboratory
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: February 1, 2007 through January 31, 2011 (Extended to January 31, 2012)
Project Period Covered by this Report: February 1, 2007 through January 31, 2008
Project Amount: $899,984
RFA: Consequences of Global Change For Air Quality (2006) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Climate Change , Air
Objective:
This is a four-year project to study the effects of changes in emissions on climate and the resulting feedback of climate change on air quality. We are examining the effects of emission changes resulting from standard IPCC-SRES future emission scenarios and from different fuel types.
Progress Summary:
To date, studies in three areas of the project have been carried out: (1) the effect of carbon dioxide in isolation on air quality and human health in the U.S., (2) the effect of future A1B and B1 emission scenarios on the emissions of natural gases and particles, global climate, and global air quality, and (3) the effect of a future fleet of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles on global climate and stratospheric ozone. In addition, we have made progress in model and emission inventory development. These results are discussed briefly below.
First, a paper was published quantifying the link between carbon dioxide, alone, and air pollution health problems. Previous studies of the effects of global warming on air pollution did not isolate carbon dioxide’s effect alone or quantify the global-scale carbon dioxide-induced temperature and water vapor change effects on both regional-scale aerosol particle plus gas pollution and the resulting health effects. The conclusion of this study was that each degree Celsius rise in temperature in the U.S. may lead to an additional 1000 (350-1800) air-pollution-related deaths per year. About 30% of these additional deaths per year occur in California, which has about 12% of the U.S. population, indicating a disproportionate share of deaths in California.
A second paper, currently in review, examines the effect of future emission changes on natural emissions, global climate, and air quality. Speciated sector- and region-specific 2030 emission factors were developed to produce gas and particle emission inventories that followed Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B and B1 emission trajectories. Current and future climate model simulations were run in which anthropogenic emission changes affected climate, which fed back to natural emissions from lightning (gases), soils (dust, bacteria, gases), the ocean (bacteria, sea spray, gases), and vegetation (pollen, spores, gases) and to photosynthesis/respiration. New methods were derived to calculate pollen, spore, and bacteria emissions and lightning flash rates as a function of size-resolved collisions. Although the B1 scenario was “cleaner” than the A1B scenario, global warming increased more in the B1 scenario because much A1B warming was masked by added reflective aerosol particles. Lightning and its emissions declined under both future scenarios as cloud ice decreased. Many additional results were examined.
A third paper, also currently in review, examines the effect on global climate and stratospheric ozone of converting the world’s fossil-fuel onroad vehicles (FFOV) to hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCV), where the hydrogen is produced by wind-powered electrolysis. Such a conversion should reduce gas and aerosol emissions, which in turn should reduce stratospheric and tropospheric aerosol and cloud acidification and surface area and increase precipitation/wet removal, all of which feed back to increasing stratospheric ozone. Over the long term, a conversion should cool the troposphere and warm the stratosphere, speeding ozone-layer recovery further. Wind-HFCV should simultaneously reduce tropospheric ozone and replace similar amounts of hydrogen and water vapor emitted by FFOV.
With respect to emissions, we are beginning to generate new future emission factors based on energy forecasts developed by the IPCC. So far, we have updated the base-year global inventories for a variety of species to 2006. In addition, the potential impact on the environment of alternative vehicle/fuel systems is being evaluated, especially with respect to air pollution health. We have begun to examine well-to-wheels (WTW) emission factors (g/mi) of four criteria pollutants (VOCs, NOx, PM10, and PM2.5) for ten selected vehicle/fuel systems: internal combustion vehicles fueled with gasoline and diesel; E85 flexible-fuel vehicles fueled with cornand switchgrass-based ethanol; hybrid vehicles fueled with gasoline and diesel; electric vehicles charged using the average U.S. generation mix and the California generation mix; plug-in hybrid vehicles powered with RFG and the U.S. mix; and fuel cell vehicles fueled with hydrogen. In addition, we have made advances in the development of a regional emission inventory for Asia.
Future Activities:
For the next period of this project, we will continue to refine the papers in review, refine future emission scenarios, and run new simulations examining the comparative effects of future climate change on air quality. Further, we will continue to improve numerical algorithms in the GATOR-GCMOM model, particularly with respect to the treatment of topographical boundary conditions for dynamical flows in 3-D at high resolution (as described with respect to 2-D flow in Ketefian and Jacobson, 2008). We will also continue with the development of emission inventories for vehicles, accounting for their lifecycle and an emission inventory for Asia.
Journal Articles on this Report : 1 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
| Other project views: | All 66 publications | 23 publications in selected types | All 23 journal articles |
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Jacobson MZ. On the causal link between carbon dioxide and air pollution mortality. Geophysical Research Letters 2008;35(3):L03809 (5 pp.) |
R833371 (2007) R833371 (2008) R833371 (2009) R833371 (2010) R833371 (Final) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
Global warming and health, future emissions, alternative-energy vehicles, numerical modeling,, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Environmental Monitoring, Ecological Risk Assessment, Atmosphere, air quality modeling, Baysian analysis, emissions impact, climate models, alternative fuel, atmospheric modelsRelevant Websites:
www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Ve.html Exit
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.