Grantee Research Project Results
2006 Progress Report: Eutrophication Thresholds – Assessment, Mitigation, and Resilience in Landscapes and Lakes
EPA Grant Number: R832445Title: Eutrophication Thresholds – Assessment, Mitigation, and Resilience in Landscapes and Lakes
Investigators: Carpenter, Stephen R. , Foley, Jonathan A. , Turner, Monica G. , Collins, Daniel
Current Investigators: Carpenter, Stephen R. , Foley, Jonathan A. , Turner, Monica G.
Institution: University of Wisconsin - Madison
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: September 1, 2005 through June 30, 2007 (Extended to August 31, 2008)
Project Period Covered by this Report: September 1, 2005 through June 30, 2006
Project Amount: $299,999
RFA: Exploratory Research: Understanding Ecological Thresholds In Aquatic Systems Through Retrospective Analysis (2004) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Aquatic Ecosystems , Water
Objective:
The project will address two main questions: (1) What thresholds in the transport and recycling of P in linked terrestrial-aquatic ecosystems cause lakes to switch between clear-water and eutrophic states? (2) How can thresholds for transport and recycling of P be manipulated to mitigate eutrophication, or increase resilience of clear- water lakes against eutrophication? The research will conduct a retrospective analysis of the Yahara Watershed and its major lakes (near Madison, Wisconsin), using a substantial historical data base of land characteristics and limnology. Approaches include statistical analyses of three different types of lake models and simulation studies using a Terrestrial-Aquatic P model. The project will describe thresholds related to eutrophication with respect to landscape, biogeochemical, and statistical characteristics.
Progress Summary:
We published two theoretical papers. These show the conditions under which changes in variance can provide advance warning of regime shifts in ecosystems subject to input of pollutants. Under separate funding, we have constructed an instrumented buoy to test this hypothesis in Lake Mendota, starting in the summer of 2006. We are writing other proposals for ecosystem-scale tests of this important idea.
We completed the database for annual phosphorus budgets of Lake Mendota for 1976 - 2005. The analysis of in-lake thresholds for P recycling has been completed and a manuscript is in early draft stages of preparation.
We hired a postdoc, Dr. Daniel Collins (Ph.D. MIT 2006), to conduct the watershed modeling described in the proposal. He started in August 2006. Dr. Collins has reviewed existing watershed models from the civil and agricultural engineering communities, and selected the model which most thoroughly fulfills the needs of the project. He has also started identifying available data and future model development needs.
Future Activities:
We expect to complete and submit the paper on in-lake thresholds. This analysis has suggested a number of important numerical experiments which were not a part of our original proposal and will be undertaken as time permits.
The focus of Dr. Collins’s work within the next 6-12 months is to produce the calibrated and verified watershed model. This necessarily includes completion of data collation and a review of the biophysical processes involved in the fate and transport of P across the local landscape.
We will be requesting a cost-free extension of 2 years for this project. Dr. Collins joined the project almost a full year after the start date. Therefore, we are almost a full year behind. We are requesting a 2-year cost-free extension to complete the project and guarantee that all results are properly synthesized and published. A 1-year extension would be needed just to complete the work plan in the proposal, because of the starting date of Dr. Collins. We are requesting an additional year to ensure completion of synthesis, for a total of 2 years cost-free extension.
Journal Articles on this Report : 2 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
| Other project views: | All 8 publications | 4 publications in selected types | All 4 journal articles |
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Brock WA, Carpenter SR. Variance as a leading indicator of regime shift in ecosystem services. Ecology and Society 2006;11(2):9. |
R832445 (2006) R832445 (2007) R832445 (Final) |
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Carpenter SR, Brock WA. Rising variance: a leading indicator of ecological transition. Ecology Letters 2006;9(3):311-318. |
R832445 (2006) R832445 (2007) R832445 (Final) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
soil, sediments, risk, health effects, ecological effects, bioavailability, vulnerability, susceptibility, cumulative effects, chemicals, toxics, pathogens, indicators, restoration, scaling, Bayesian, ecology, physics, environmental chemistry, modeling, Midwest, Wisconsin, WI, EPA Region 5,, RFA, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Scientific Discipline, Air, Aquatic Ecosystem, Aquatic Ecosystems & Estuarine Research, Ecological Risk Assessment, Atmosphere, Air Pollution Effects, climate change, Environmental Monitoring, environmental history, lakes, water quality, anthropogenic impact, estuarine research, ecological thresholds, ecosystem indicators, modeling ecosystem change, ecosystem response, ecosystem stress, eutrophication, trophic interactions, land use, aquatic ecosystems, landscape changeRelevant Websites:
http://lter.limnology.wisc.edu Exit
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.