Grantee Research Project Results
Final Report: Effects of Climate Change on Human Health: Current and Future Impacts
EPA Grant Number: R832751Title: Effects of Climate Change on Human Health: Current and Future Impacts
Investigators: Hanna, Adel , Yeatts, Karin B. , Xiu, Aijun , Henderson, Fred , Robinson, Peter , Smith, Richard , Zhu, Zhengyuan
Institution: University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: January 1, 2006 through December 31, 2008 (Extended to December 31, 2010)
Project Amount: $599,103
RFA: The Impact of Climate Change & Variability on Human Health (2005) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Climate Change
Objective:
The overall goal of this project is to define more precisely the interrelationships among (a) changes in climate and meteorological conditions, (b) air pollution, and (c) heat- and cold-related morbidity severe enough to warrant clinical contact. A secondary goal is to evaluate heat-related morbidity in a vulnerable population: children and adults under economic disadvantage. With a projection of future climate and the associated air quality patterns, such interrelationships may be used to assess potential health impacts of air quality under future climate and emissions scenarios.
Summary/Accomplishments (Outputs/Outcomes):
Diagnostic, statistical, and dynamical modeling analyses have been utilized to achieve the goal of this research project to define more precisely the interrelationships among (1) changes in climate and meteorological conditions, (2) air pollution, and (3) heat- and cold-related morbidity severe enough to warrant clinical contact. A secondary goal is to evaluate heat-related morbidity in a vulnerable population: children and adults under economic disadvantage. This project applied time series methods to examine air quality data in relation to a health outcome, and applied meteorology, emissions, and air quality models to investigate such interrelationships among climate, air pollution, and health under future climate scenarios. Our research targeted the state of North Carolina, with its diversified weather, climate, landscape, and terrain.
We focused our analysis on five cities in North Carolina (Asheville, Charlotte, Greensboro, Raleigh, and Wilmington). We used asthma hospitalization and Emergency Room (ER) visits, myocardial infarction (MI) hospital admissions in adults data in 9 years (1996-2004) together with air quality data and meteorological data for the same period. Asthma hospital admissions records are identified by the date of admission, duration of admission, costs, gender, age, patient control, patient ZIP code, and hospital ZIP code. Meteorological data are identified in terms of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures, daily precipitation, mean and maximum relative humidity, daily mean wind speed and direction, and the air-mass/weather type. Ambient concentrations of O3 and PM10 are provided by the U.S. EPA's Air Quality System (AQS) (formerly known as the Aerometric Information Retrieval System [AIRS]); see https://www.epa.gov/ttn/airs/airsaqs/detaildata/downloadaqsdata.htm. Further, we used data from the U.S. National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS) database (http://www.ihapss.jhsph.edu) to examine preliminary relationships between weather type and mortality for the 90 cities across the U.S. for which data are available.
We used the Spatial Synoptic Classification (SSC) approach to characterize meteorological conditions in the five cities in North Carolina, in terms of seven air mass types over the 9-year period (1996 through 2004). We then examined the associations between day-to-day variations in air masses, levels of pollutants and asthma hospital admissions, and ER visits and MI hospital admissions over the same 9-year timeframe.
We used a generalized linear model (GLM) to study the relationship between current, 1-day, 2-day, 3-day, 4-day, and 5-day lagged O3 and PM10 concentrations, air mass types, and asthma hospital admissions and ER visits and MI hospital admissions in adults, after adjusting for meteorological variables, nonlinear seasonal effects, and long-term trend. We conducted the analysis for the selected five cities in North Carolina. The results show that specific weather types (circulation patterns or synoptic air mass patterns), in conjunction with ambient air pollution levels, are associated with increased asthma hospital admissions and ER visits and MI hospital admissions.
We performed modeling analyses to assess the potential health outcomes under future climate and air quality scenarios (years 2018-2020 and 2048-2050). The Community Climate Modeling System (CCSM) was used to simulate the current climate for the years 2001-2003 to establish a base for comparison between current and future climate and air quality. We downscaled the CCSM to derive the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model. The later is often used for preparing meteorology for air quality simulations. IPCC emissions scenarios for future years were used to derive the CMAQ air quality modeling runs.
Conclusions:
We concluded in general that certain synoptic air mass patterns, in conjunction with ambient air pollution levels, are associated with increased asthma hospital admissions and ER visits and MI hospital admissions. Additional health data (doctor’s office and hospital visits for asthma in children enrolled in Medicaid) agreed with the above results from hospitalization data in terms of the validity of the air-mass/air-quality approach to characterizing the peaks in health data.
The results found under this research program demonstrate that ozone- and PM-related increases in hospital admissions for asthma (and ER visits) and MI were associated with certain air mass types, while other types did not favor any increases in hospital admissions as result of increases in the ground-level ozone and PM10 concentrations. These findings are considered critical to support environmental decision making and related planning activities. Because the air masses affecting a particular location can be forecast as part of routine weather forecasting, the information resulting from the methodology described here could assist public health officials in planning effective resource allocations—for example, scheduling additional emergency room staff when the weather forecast indicates an upcoming specific air mass pattern that could affect the community’s health. The concept of air mass classification could provide an important and distinctive approach to quantifying the complex association between climate/air quality and health, in particular for addressing possible health impacts under future climate scenarios. Note, however, that while multiple methodologies exist for classifying the synoptic-scale pattern at a specific location, it is imperative that any air-mass-based approach capture the synoptic-scale meteorological pattern to reduce the uncertainty in applying this methodology.
Journal Articles on this Report : 1 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 11 publications | 1 publications in selected types | All 1 journal articles |
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Type | Citation | ||
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Hanna AF, Yeatts KB, Xiu A, Zhu Z, Smith RL, Davis NN, Talgo KD, Arora G, Robinson PJ, Meng Q, Pinto JP. Associations between ozone and morbidity using the Spatial Synoptic Classification system. Environmental Health 2011;10(1):49. |
R832751 (2009) R832751 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
Supplemental Keywords:
Global climate, epidemiology, climate model, southeastern U.S., RFA, Health, Scientific Discipline, Air, Health Risk Assessment, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Risk Assessments, Biochemistry, Environmental Monitoring, Ecological Risk Assessment, Atmosphere, air quality modeling, morbidity, air pollution, human exposure, climate models, human dimension, human health risk, land use, statistical methodsRelevant Websites:
http://www.ie.unc.edu/cempd/projects/EPA-Climate/index.cfm (note that the site is password protected and, for now, can be accessed only by the team of investigators and the EPA Project Officer)
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.
Project Research Results
- 2009 Progress Report
- 2008 Progress Report
- 2007 Progress Report
- 2006 Progress Report
- Original Abstract
1 journal articles for this project