Grantee Research Project Results
1999 Progress Report: Estimating the Cost of Carbon Sequestration in Global Forests
EPA Grant Number: R826616Title: Estimating the Cost of Carbon Sequestration in Global Forests
Investigators: Sohngen, Brent
Current Investigators: Sohngen, Brent , Mendelsohn, Robert O. , Sedjo, Roger
Institution: The Ohio State University
Current Institution: The Ohio State University , Resources for the Future , Yale University
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: September 1, 1998 through August 31, 2000
Project Period Covered by this Report: September 1, 1998 through August 31, 1999
Project Amount: $87,401
RFA: Decision-Making and Valuation for Environmental Policy (1998) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Environmental Justice
Objective:
Forest management is considered an option for reducing net human carbon emissions and helping to avert global warming. Although previous studies have considered regional forest programs, forest policies must be large in scale to have any real impact on reducing net carbon emissions. The estimates of the costs of regional programs cannot be summed to determine global costs because there are system-wide, dynamic effects that have not been considered. This project will explore the cost of storing carbon in forests with large-scale, global carbon sequestration programs. The specific objectives of the proposal are to: (1) develop a model of the marginal cost of carbon sequestration in forests, (2) develop a global carbon storage database for forested biomes, and (3) develop alternative strategies for carbon sequestration in forests and estimate costs.Progress Summary:
A database of carbon storage in global biomes has been developed and used to estimate carbon flux from harvests and the management of industrial forests in a global timber market, a baseline case, a high demand case, and a low demand case. Results are presented for specific regions and for the globe. Harvests and management of forests are predicted to store an additional 184 Tg (1 Tg = 1012 grams) of carbon per year in forests and wood products during the next 50 years, with a range of 108?251 Tg per year. Although harvests in natural boreal and tropical forest regions will cause carbon releases, new plantation establishment in subtropical emerging regions more than offsets these losses. Unlike many existing studies, these results suggest that harvests and management of North American forests will lead to carbon emissions from that region during the next 50 years. The results are quantitatively sensitive to the assumed growth in demand, but are qualitatively similar in the sensitivity analysis.The potential system-wide effects of large-scale afforestation programs that would cause carbon to leak from the forests, thereby reducing net sequestration, were considered. The potential scale of this leakage under several different afforestation schemes was estimated using a global timber model; the results suggest that leakage occurs in two ways. First, forests created to sequester carbon enhance future timber supply and decrease anticipated future prices; these lower prices crowd out some commercial forests that would otherwise have been established. Second, lower anticipated future prices cause some landowners to liquidate their existing stock, resulting in short-term net carbon fluxes from forests to the atmosphere. When these effects are considered, the expected gain in long-term carbon storage may be reduced by one half. The short-term effects are likely to be more important for near-term carbon mitigation policies, such as tradable carbon emissions permits, because forestry programs may actually increase carbon emissions at given time periods in the future.
Future Activities:
In Fiscal Year 2000, the research will complete an extensive revision to the global timber model for use in carbon abatement cost estimation. In addition, the researchers will undertake the policy scenario analysis to determine regional and global costs of carbon sequestration in forest sinks. Costs under alternative policies will be analyzed and compared. The researchers will finalize two research papers and will present the results at several economics and policy conferences.Journal Articles on this Report : 1 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
| Other project views: | All 14 publications | 3 publications in selected types | All 2 journal articles |
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Sohngen B, Sedjo R. Potential carbon flux from timber harvests and management in the context of a global timber market. Climatic Change 2000;44(1-2):151-172. |
R826616 (1999) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
public policy, decisionmaking, cost benefit, environmental assets, measurement methods, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Economic, Social, & Behavioral Science Research Program, Economics & Decision Making, Economics, decision-making, Social Science, climate change, Ecology and Ecosystems, economic objectives, cost estimation, global change, ecosystem valuation, forests, carbon emissions, global carbon storage database, carbon sequestration, changing environmental conditions, land use, global warming , environmental policyRelevant Websites:
http://www-agecon.ag.ohio-state.edu/Faculty/bsohngen/forests/ccforest.htm 
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.