Grantee Research Project Results
2006 Progress Report: Concordance Analysis of Probabilistic Aggregate Exposure Assessment and Biomarkers of Exposure
EPA Grant Number: R831844Title: Concordance Analysis of Probabilistic Aggregate Exposure Assessment and Biomarkers of Exposure
Investigators: Kissel, John C.
Institution: University of Washington
EPA Project Officer: Aja, Hayley
Project Period: August 1, 2004 through July 31, 2007
Project Period Covered by this Report: August 1, 2005 through July 31, 2006
Project Amount: $449,193
RFA: Environmental Statistics Research: Novel Analyses of Human Exposure Related Data (2004) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Environmental Statistics , Human Health
Objective:
Three key areas of scientific inquiry in the study of environmental contaminants are: (1) assessment of aggregate exposure; (2) probabilistic prediction of exposure; and (3) biomarkers of exposure. The objective of this research is to integrate these three areas of inquiry through application of second order probabilistic methods to aggregate exposure data and through concordance analysis of predicted and measured levels of urinary pesticide metabolites. These analyses should provide new insights into the validity of current pesticide exposure assessment methods and a novel approach for the evaluation of pesticide exposure data.
Progress Summary:
In the second year of the project, accomplishments included: (1) acquisition of the chlorpyrifos and trichloropyridinol (TCPy) data for the Ohio subpopulation of the Children’s Total Exposure to Pesticides and Other Persistent Organic Pollutants (CTEPP) study; (2) application of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to quantitative estimation of the shortfall between predicted and observed urinary TCPy found previously; (3) addition of exposure via dermal contact, dust ingestion, hand-to-mouth contact, and object-to-mouth contact (which we refer to as the poorly characterized pathways) to the modeling scheme; and (4) MCMC estimation of residential transfer coefficients that give close concordance between observation and prediction. Abstracts were submitted (and accepted) for a poster presentation at the joint annual meeting of the International Society of Exposure Analysis and the International Society for Environmental Epidemiology in Paris and for a platform presentation at the annual meeting of the Society for Risk Analysis in Baltimore.
Future Activities:
At the end of the second project year, expected future activities include: (1)submission of two manuscripts currently in draft form that describe the CTEPP chlorpyrifos/TCPy work; (2) acquisition of the CTEPP pentachlorophenol data and testing of methods and hypotheses generated for chlorpyrifos on that compound; and (3) development of non-CTEPP case studies to test our current view that dermal contact with contaminated surfaces accounts for most of the missing exposure in the CTEPP cases.
Journal Articles on this Report : 1 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
| Other project views: | All 5 publications | 1 publications in selected types | All 1 journal articles |
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Kissel JC. The mismeasure of dermal absorption. Journal of Exposure Science & Environmental Epidemiology 2011;21(3):302-309. |
R831844 (2006) |
Exit Exit |
Supplemental Keywords:
RFA, Economic, Social, & Behavioral Science Research Program, Scientific Discipline, Health Risk Assessment, Biochemistry, Environmental Statistics, health risk analysis, risk assessment, biomarkers, aggregation, ecological epidemiology, concordance analysis, probabalistic aggregate expsoure, pesticide exposure assessment modelProgress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.