Grantee Research Project Results
2001 Progress Report: Cost-benefit and Uncertainty Analysis for Ambient Ozone Reductions: Development and Demonstration of an Integrated Model and Framework
EPA Grant Number: R825821Title: Cost-benefit and Uncertainty Analysis for Ambient Ozone Reductions: Development and Demonstration of an Integrated Model and Framework
Investigators: Krupnick, Alan J. , Bergin, Michelle S. , Russell, Armistead G. , Shih, Jhih-Shyang
Current Investigators: Krupnick, Alan J. , Shih, Jhih-Shyang , Russell, Armistead G. , Bergin, Michelle S.
Institution: Resources for the Future , Georgia Institute of Technology
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: October 1, 1997 through September 30, 2000 (Extended to September 30, 2002)
Project Period Covered by this Report: October 1, 2000 through September 30, 2001
Project Amount: $300,000
RFA: Decision-Making and Valuation for Environmental Policy (1997) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Environmental Justice
Objective:
The objectives of this research project are to introduce uncertain and variable air quality predictions from emissions reductions into cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit analysis, and compare results for an emissions reductions scenario for the Eastern United States to results of a model where air quality predictions are treated deterministically.
Progress Summary:
The progress on the project is summarized below:
· Created emissions inventories for July 2010 cases reflecting expected activity growth and emissions controls that currently are "on the books" (covered by existing regulations), inventories for July 2010 reflecting expected activity growth and emissions controls that are anticipated to be "on the way" (regulations will be put in place), and inventories for May 2010 also are "on the way".
· Compared emissions inventories to others that were previously developed.
· Prepared model input and control files to enable calculation of ozone, nitrates, sulfates, and PM2.5 concentration "sensitivities" to NOx emissions from sources grouped by states that are of interest to this project.
· Ran base case simulations for May 22-30, 1995, and July 9-19, 1995, and base and sensitivity simulations for the same episodes in 2010.
· Developed source-receptor matrices (sensitivities) for NOx reductions from surface and point emissions sources and SO2 reductions from all sources to ozone and fine particulates.
· Worked out methods to transfer data between Resources for the Future and Georgia Institute of Technology (transferred approximately 25 GB of data).
· Used model performance evaluation programs to examine performance of model simulations.
· Conducted analysis on the Nitrate time trend using the base case simulation result of the July 9-19, 1995 episode. This is an offshoot of the main research project and was performed while waiting for the emissions inventory to be finalized.
· Developed the cost and emissions reductions data for use with the air quality model output.
One set of preliminary findings, based on four metropolitan areas (Baltimore, Chicago, New York, and Washington, DC) and one rural area in Pennsylvania, includes: (1) ozone and nitrate concentration profiles have significant diurnal patterns; and (2) nighttime nitrate concentrations (between midnight and 6 a.m.) statistically are significantly higher than daytime nitrate concentrations. The first finding matches the theory of photochemistry. The second finding has not been systematically documented and tested in the literature and could explain the lack of success in finding an effect of nitrates on human health. However, we need to do more analysis to verify that the second finding holds for other cities, as well as at the state level. If that is the case, it may have significant policy implications.
Another set of preliminary findings includes: (1) it is more effective to reduce PM2.5 by SO2 reductions than NOx emissions reduction (approximately 10 times); (2) decreasing SO2 always decreases sulfates and increases nitrates; (3) decreasing NOx may increase or decrease sulfates (ozone decrease slows rate of SO2SO3; e.g., NY), but always decreases nitrates; (4) PM2.5 generally falls by more than the sum of nitrate plus sulfate change (SO3 and NO3 change explains approximately 60-80 percent of PM2.5 change); (5) regional level scavenging for ozone occasionally is seen and is largest for NJ and (population-weighted) NY; (6) local effects (along the diagonal of the S-R matrix) are 23 percent for PM and 18 percent for ozone; and (7) ozone sensitivity numbers are the same order of magnitude but are smaller than some other estimates in the literature based on models that do not incorporate fine particulate formation chemistry.
These findings could have major import to the development of air pollution policy because they suggest that reductions in particular pollutants may have widely different geographical and temporal effects and different sized effects on concentrations of interest to policymakers. These are the first S-R matrices developed with an air quality model fully integrating the relevant air chemistry.
Future Activities:
In the next year we plan to: (1) develop the cost function and run the deterministic air quality management model; (2) complete the draft report on the deterministic part of the project; (3) finish all the computational runs needed for the uncertainty/variability analysis; and (4) finish the runs of the stochastic optimization model and prepare the final report.
Journal Articles:
No journal articles submitted with this report: View all 20 publications for this projectSupplemental Keywords:
air, ambient air, atmosphere, tropospheric ozone, chemical transport, particulates, oxidants, nitrogen oxides, sulfates, organics, public policy, decision-making, cost benefit, environmental chemistry, social science, economics, modeling, northeast, central, northwest, south central, southeast, Atlantic Coast, mid-Atlantic, Eastern United States, public utilities., RFA, Scientific Discipline, Economic, Social, & Behavioral Science Research Program, Air, Economics, decision-making, Ecology and Ecosystems, tropospheric ozone, Economics & Decision Making, uncertainty analysis, ecosystem valuation, phototchemical modeling, environmental equity, integrated modeling, ozone, tropospheric ozone destruction, environmental values, ozone abatement, cost/benefit analysis, health valuation models, National Ambient Air Quality Standards, ecological assessment, ambient ozone reduction, public policy, photochemical model, benefits assessmentRelevant Websites:
http://environmental.gatech.edu/SAMI/ Exit
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.