Grantee Research Project Results

1999 Progress Report: Cost-benefit and Uncertainty Analysis for Ambient Ozone Reductions: Development and Demonstration of an Integrated Model and Framework

EPA Grant Number: R825821
Title: Cost-benefit and Uncertainty Analysis for Ambient Ozone Reductions: Development and Demonstration of an Integrated Model and Framework
Investigators: Krupnick, Alan J. , Russell, Armistead G. , Shih, Jhih-Shyang
Current Investigators: Krupnick, Alan J. , Shih, Jhih-Shyang , Russell, Armistead G. , Bergin, Michelle S.
Institution: Resources for the Future , Georgia Institute of Technology
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: October 1, 1997 through September 30, 2000 (Extended to September 30, 2002)
Project Period Covered by this Report: October 1, 1998 through September 30, 1999
Project Amount: $300,000
RFA: Decision-Making and Valuation for Environmental Policy (1997) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Environmental Justice

Objective:

The purpose of this project is to examine the effects of uncertainty in air quality, dose-response and benefit estimation, and meteorological variability on cost-effective approaches to meeting air quality reduction targets.

Progress Summary:

During the last 12 months, the groundwork has been laid for this project. The NOx emissions inventory has been obtained for 22 states in the Eastern United States. This inventory contains cost functions for various NOx treatment technologies and the effectiveness of those technologies in reducing NOx emissions. A new multiscale grid system of the study domain that is specifically designed for this project has been completed. The air quality modeling, with sensitivity analysis capability using a three-dimensional decoupled direct method (DDM-3D), is nearly complete. The first of two 10-day particulate matter (PM)/ozone episodes has been chosen, and the wind fields have been closely examined and described. Along with the emissions inventory, the meteorological data have been used to estimate ozone and PM concentrations over the study domain using the Urban and Regional Multiscale (URM) model developed by Ted Russell. The model predictions have been validated.

Future Activities:

A second ozone/PM episode will be modeled to provide a contrast to the first episode modeled and to add meteorological variability to the database. The next stage will be to conduct Monte Carlo simulation, and to process the results to develop stochastic source-receptor relationships for the NOx to ozone and NOx to particulates linkages. After this, we plan to estimate optimal NOx reductions strategies given uncertain source-receptor relationship. Then, we will examine uncertainties in the health dose-response and valuation relationships in the model and how they alter the optimal allocation of emissions reductions. We will compare the magnitude of uncertainties from three different sources, namely, air quality modeling, dose-response functions, and valuation relationships. We then will model alternative types of NOx control policies to examine their sensitivities to the uncertainties and variabilities built into the analysis. We also will examine the trade-off between control cost and risk of violating air quality goals. Furthermore, we will examine the equity issues, including benefits and rules of control-cost sharing, among various political entities. Finally, we will examine the value of reducing uncertainty and variability.

Journal Articles:

No journal articles submitted with this report: View all 20 publications for this project

Supplemental Keywords:

air, ambient air, ozone, particulate matter, mobile sources, exposure, risk assessment, effects, health effects, human health, sensitive populations, dose-response, age, elderly, VOCs, nitrogen dioxide, sulfates, risk management, public policy, cost benefit analysis, nonmarket valuation, contingent valuation, willingness-to-pay, social science, epidemiology, environmental chemistry, northeast, midatlantic, south, business, transportation, industry., RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Economic, Social, & Behavioral Science Research Program, Economics & Decision Making, Economics, decision-making, tropospheric ozone, Ecology and Ecosystems, benefits assessment, National Ambient Air Quality Standards, ecosystem valuation, ecological assessment, ambient ozone reduction, stakeholder, cost/benefit analysis, environmental values, public policy, photochemical model, phototchemical modeling, environmental equity, integrated modeling, health valuation models, ozone, tropospheric ozone destruction, ozone abatement

Relevant Websites:

http://www.rff.org Exit EPA

http://environmental.gatech.edu/SAMI/ Exit EPA

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/HistData/ Exit EPA

Progress and Final Reports:

Original Abstract

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.