Final Report: Integrating Observations and Modeling in Ozone Management Efforts

EPA Grant Number: R825260
Title: Integrating Observations and Modeling in Ozone Management Efforts
Investigators:
Institution:
EPA Project Officer: Hahn, Intaek
Project Period: November 15, 1996 through November 14, 1999 (Extended to November 14, 2000)
Project Amount: $367,697
RFA: Air Quality (1996) RFA Text |  Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air Quality and Air Toxics , Air

Objective:

The objectives of this study were to provide information that is relevant to the development of efficient ozone management plans, tracking progress, and assessing the effectiveness of ozone management efforts. This study was aimed at improving our understanding of the ozone non-attainment problem in the eastern United States and at providing information to environmental managers for making economically-important decisions to address the ozone problem.

Summary/Accomplishments (Outputs/Outcomes):

Through analyses of ozone and its precursors and meteorological variables, we have demonstrated the presence of different forcings in time series data operating on different time scales. We evaluated the performance of different scale separation techniques in assessing long-term trends in pollutant data in the presence of meteorological variability. These techniques can help detect and track changes in pollutant levels attributable to emission control policies, enabling us to evaluate the effectiveness of our air quality management practices. We also have developed new methods for examining the long-range transport of pollution using observations and photochemical models. Using the observations of pollutant concentrations and meteorological variables, we have identified the importance of longer time scales to pollution episodes. We have shown that models also capture the longer-term processes imbedded in the observations of ozone and its precursors. We have developed new techniques for model performance evaluation, which can identify the strengths and limitations of the current generation photochemical models. We have shown that uncertainties in air quality models can be reduced when we focus on the longer-term processes. We also have demonstrated that longer-term processes are most relevant to regulatory policy-making. To build confidence in the use of models for regulatory policies, we have developed techniques to integrate observations and modeling results. That is, we were able to transform the deterministic modeling results into the probabilistic form so they could be used to assess the relative efficacy of different emission control strategies as part of the ozone and PM2.5 attainment demonstration process. This will identify the probability of meeting and maintaining the air quality standards with a given emission control policy.

Training of Environmental Professionals. Supported by this research grant, four doctoral students and two masters students have completed their degrees at the University at Albany.


Journal Articles on this Report : 15 Displayed | Download in RIS Format

Other project views: All 33 publications 18 publications in selected types All 15 journal articles
Type Citation Project Document Sources
Journal Article Biswas J, Hogrefe C, Rao ST, Hao W, Sistla G. Evaluating the performance of regional-scale photochemical modeling systems. Part III-Precursor predictions. Atmospheric Environment 2001;35(35):6129-6149.
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R825260 (Final)
R826372 (Final)
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  • Journal Article Biswas J, Rao ST. Uncertainties in episodic ozone modeling stemming from uncertainties in meteorological fields. Journal of Applied Meteorology 2001;40(2):117-136.
    abstract available   full text available
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  • Journal Article Brankov E, Rao ST, Porter PS. A trajectory-clustering-correlation methodology for examining the long-range transport of air pollutants. Atmospheric Environment 1998;32(9):1525-1534.
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  • Journal Article Eskridge RE, Ku JY, Rao ST, Porter PS, Zurbenko IG. Separating different scales of motion in time series of meteorological variables. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 1997;78(7):1473-1483.
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  • Journal Article Hogrefe C, Rao ST, Zurbenko IG, Porter PS. Interpreting the information in ozone observations and model predictions relevant to regulatory policies in the Eastern United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2000;81(9):2083-2106.
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  • Journal Article Hogrefe C, Rao ST, Kasibhatla P, Kallos G, Tremback CJ, Hao W, Olerud D, Xiu A, McHenry J, Alapaty K. Evaluating the performance of regional-scale photochemical modeling systems: Part I--meteorological predictions. Atmospheric Environment 2001;35(24):4159-4174.
    abstract available   full text available
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  • Journal Article Hogrefe C, Rao ST, Kasibhatla P, Hao W, Sistla G, Mathur R, McHenry J. Evaluating the performance of regional-scale photochemical modeling systems: Part II--ozone predictions. Atmospheric Environment 2001;35(24):4175-4188.
    abstract available   full text available
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  • Journal Article Hogrefe C, Rao ST. Demonstrating attainment of the air quality standards:integration of observations and model predictions into the probabilistic framework. Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association 2001;51(7):1060-1072.
    abstract available   full text available
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  • Journal Article Milanchus ML, Rao ST, Zurbenko IG. Evaluating the effectiveness of ozone management efforts in the presence of meteorological variability. Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association 1998;48(3):201-215.
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  • Journal Article Porter PS, Rao ST, Zurbenko IG, Dunker AM, Wolff GT. Ozone air quality over North America: Part II-An analysis of trend detection and attribution techniques. Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association 2001;51(2):283-306.
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  • Journal Article Rao ST, Zurbenko IG, Neagu R, Porter PS, Ku JY, Henry RF. Space and time scales in ambient ozone data. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 1997;78(10):2153-2166.
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  • Journal Article Sistla G, Hao W, Ku J-Y, Kallos G, Zhang KS, Mao HT, Rao ST. An operational evaluation of two regional-scale ozone air quality modeling systems over the eastern United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2001;82(5):945-964.
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  • Journal Article Wolff GT, Dunker AM, Rao ST, Porter PS, Zurbenko IG. Ozone air quality over North America: Part I--a review of reported trends. Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association 2001;51(2):273-282.
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  • Journal Article Zhang J, Rao ST. The role of vertical mixing in the temporal evolution of ground-level ozone concentrations. Journal of Applied Meteorology 1999;38(12):1674-1691.
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  • Journal Article Zurbenko I, Sowizral M. Resolution of the destructive effect of noise on linear regression of two time series. Far East Journal of Theoretical Statistics 1999;3(1):139-157.
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  • Supplemental Keywords:

    ozone air quality, pollutant transport, photochemical modeling, statistical analysis, time series, bootstrap, extreme value statistics, observations, decision making, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, tropospheric ozone, Atmospheric Sciences, phototchemical modeling, ambient ozone data, VOCs, weather factors, air quality data, ozone abatement, environmental policy, meteorological fluctuations, ozone management efforts, regulations

    Progress and Final Reports:

    Original Abstract
  • 1997
  • 1998
  • 1999